Each week, Saturday Down South’s playoff predictor will project which four teams would make the College Football Playoff if the season ended now.

The formula takes into account Vegas national championship odds, offensive and defensive efficiency, analytics, strength of schedule, division standings and the major polls.

The team with the lowest score is the most likely to make the four-team Playoff. (You can find a longer explanation of the formula at the bottom of this post.)

Keep in mind, this is not a projection of where things will be at the end of the season. It’s a projection of where things stand if the season ended today.

Under that premise, Mississippi State vs. Florida State and Baylor vs. Ole Miss would meet in the national semifinals with the potential for both Mississippi schools to reach the national championship.

Notre Dame, Oregon, Michigan State, Ohio State, TCU and Oklahoma are the teams from other conferences most likely to push into the playoff, according to our formula.

Week 7 eliminated eight more teams from Playoff contention, meaning 101 of the 128 FBS programs have no hope this season.

THE PLAYOFF TEAMS

1. Mississippi State

Score: 36.5

Last Week: No. 5

The Numbers Say: It comes as a bit of a surprise, but the Bulldogs offense ranks 31st in the country in terms of points per possession, the biggest hinderance to MSU’s playoff hopes according to our formula. Mississippi State also ranks “just” sixth in the Football Outsiders metric.

Bottom Line: Mississippi State is well on its way. A road game in Tuscaloosa and the Egg Bowl may be all that stand in the way of an SEC West title.

Next Up: at Kentucky (Oct. 25).

2. Baylor

Score: 40

Last Week: No. 2

The Numbers Say: Vegas is not hopeful that Baylor will win the national championship. The Bears have the 12th-best odds. Our analytics metric ranks the team eighth, but an unbeaten record and tremendous combined efficiency more than makes up for those two downgrades.

Bottom Line: Baylor slipped past TCU in a raucous game Saturday. The team has an excellent chance at the playoff — provided it beats Oklahoma on the road in November.

Next Up: at West Virginia.

3. Ole Miss

Score: 41.5

Last Week: No. 3

The Numbers Say: The Rebels have the No. 3 defense and No. 42 offense in terms of scoring efficiency. The latter is the team’s biggest hinderance. If that number were, say, 31st in the county, the team would be our most likely playoff invitee through Week 7.

Bottom Line: If the Rebels can get past a tough road game Saturday, 8-0 should be closer to “a given” than “obtainable.” Auburn and Mississippi State still remain on the schedule.

Next Up: vs. Tennessee.

4. Florida State

Score: 61

Last Week: No. 4

The Numbers Say: The Football Outsiders metric slots the Seminoles at 12th in the country. The team also gets penalized for ranking 47th in defensive scoring efficiency and is 11th in the Sagarin Ratings, which value strength of schedule.

Bottom Line: Beat Notre Dame and FSU only has to avoid a major upset the rest of the year. The Seminoles are in great shape if they can get by the Fighting Irish.

Next Up: vs. Notre Dame.

THE PAT HADENS

These teams are the last ones cut by that (crazy?) College Football Playoff Committee. If the season ended today.

5. Notre Dame

Score: 64.5

Last: No. 6

The Numbers Say: The Fighting Irish are just 13th in the Sagarin Ratings due to a relatively modest schedule, while the team ranks at No. 17 according to the analytics metric we include. This is a lot like the team that played ‘Bama in the national championship when Everett Golson was a freshman — squeaking out a lot of close games.

Bottom Line: Notre Dame can roar into the top four with a win at Florida State, but the Irish still have several tough games regardless.

Next Up: at Florida State.

6. Georgia

Score: 70.5

Last: No. 9

The Numbers Say: Vegas gives the Bulldogs the 11th-best odds — thank goodness for the current state of the SEC East, or it could be worse — but beating Missouri, 34-0, helps with the stats metrics. Georgia’s scoring efficiency is now 10th in offense and 19th in defense, a better average than four of the five teams ahead of the Bulldogs. A 10-point penalty for losing a game keeps them out if the season ended today.

Bottom Line: The Bulldogs must win out, including a revenge victory against Auburn, and take down the SEC West champion in Atlanta.

Next Up: at Arkansas.

7. Alabama

Score: 88.5

Last: No. 8

The Numbers Say: Alabama also incurs a 10-point penalty for its one loss and ranks at No. 7 in both human polls. The team’s scoring efficiency is tremendous, but the Crimson Tide are tied for third in the SEC West. A third-place tie in any division, even that one, won’t allow for a playoff berth.

Bottom Line: Alabama has no margin for error. The Tide must beat Mississippi State and Auburn at home..

Next Up: vs. Texas A&M.

8. Auburn

Score: 90.5

Last: No. 1

The Numbers Say: Similar to Alabama, the penalty for a loss and a third-place tie in the SEC West hurt. The team’s scoring efficiency also is worse than six of the seven teams ranked ahead of it. But Sagarin ranks the Tigers No. 1 after playing on the road against Mississippi State.

Bottom Line: It’s far-fetched to imagine Auburn surviving the rest of its schedule without a loss.

Next Up: vs. South Carolina (Oct. 25).

THE DAN MARINOS

Strong contenders, still alive, but unlikely to actually win anything.

9. Oregon: 91.5
10. Michigan State: 96.5
11. Ohio State: 107.5
12. TCU: 109.5
13. Oklahoma: 115.5

THE BRADY HOKES

Good enough to make a mediocre bowl game. Can you say San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl?

14. Kansas State: 140
15. Arizona: 154.5
16. Nebraska: 165.5
17. Marshall: 167
18. Oklahoma State: 184
19. Arizona State: 197.5

THE VANDY JAMES FRANKLINS

The ceiling is limited, but they’re feisty.

20. Utah: 202
21. Duke: 224.5
22. Georgia Tech: 228.5
23. Washington: 248.5

THE DONALD STERLINGS

Only alive on paper.

Count: 4 of 128

Kentucky
Iowa
Minnesota
Oregon State

ELIMINATED FROM CONTENTION

These teams will not get a College Football Playoff bid.

Count: 101 of 128

Air Force
Akron
Appalachian State
Arkansas
Arkansas State
Army
Ball State
Boise State
Boston College
Bowling Green
Buffalo
BYU
California
Central Michigan
Cincinnati
Clemson
Colorado
Colorado State
Connecticut
East Carolina
Eastern Michigan
Florida
Florida Atlantic
Florida International
Fresno State
Georgia Southern
Georgia State
Hawaii
Houston
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa State
Kansas
Kent State
Louisiana-Lafayette
Louisiana-Monroe
Louisiana Tech
Louisville
LSU
Maryland
Massachusetts
Memphis
Miami (Fla.)
Miami (Ohio)
Michigan
Middle Tennessee
Missouri
Navy
Nevada
New Mexico
New Mexico State
North Carolina
North Carolina State
Northern Illinois
North Texas
Northwestern
Old Dominion
Ohio
Penn State
Pitt
Purdue
Rice
San Diego State
San Jose State
South Alabama
South Carolina
South Florida
Southern Methodist
Southern Miss
Stanford
Syracuse
Temple
Tennessee
Texas
Texas A&M
Texas Tech
Texas-San Antonio
Texas State
Toledo
Troy
Tulane
Tulsa
UAB
UCF
UCLA
UNLV
USC
UTEP
Utah State
Vanderbilt
Virginia
Virginia Tech
Wake Forest
Washington State
Western Kentucky
Western Michigan
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming