Alabama, once again, will begin a football season as the top program in the nation and the favorite to win a national championship.

Since arriving in 2007, Nick Saban has proven one thing more than anything else. He has a superb ability to fill in a starting lineup with widely unidentified stars. Bama will lose a Tua Tagovailoa and replace him with Mac Jones. Both quarterbacks were first-round picks in the NFL Draft. Is there another top NFL prospect ready to step under center? Based on recent history, the answer is probably yes.

Even when Bama is down by Saban’s standards, the Tide are still pretty darn good. Saban has won 12 or more games in a season 10 times in Tuscaloosa.

Injuries could always be a factor. Bama would hate to lose its best players. That would test any team’s depth, even Alabama (though it completed a perfect 2020 despite losing Jaylen Waddle). Yet no program is better equipped to lose players to injury than Alabama given Saban’s elite recruiting.

So we know what the standard is: National title or bust. Is that fair? Realistic?

Here are some best- and worst-case scenarios for Alabama this season:

Best-case scenarios

Saban winning a 7th national championship at Bama

As we roll out the best- and worst-case scenarios for each SEC team, I have to apologize to my fellow Saturday Down South journalists. This is quite possibly the easiest entry among all SEC teams. Until Saban decides it’s time to retire, Bama will be in the conversation to win a national title. That’s no different this year.

Bama has some challenges. Saban must replace 8 starters on offense and faces a predictably challenging SEC schedule that includes a rare trip to Florida. That would be daunting for any program in the country. Saban is used to it.

There have always been challenges to Bama’s prominence. The Mississippi schools looked to be elite in 2014 before sputtering out. LSU showcased a spectacular offense in 2019 and beat Alabama that season en route to a national championship. Auburn has made runs. Texas A&M is pushing.

Is a team on Bama’s schedule ready to top Goliath? Texas A&M or Florida on the road is the most likely pothole for the Tide. However, Bama will likely be favored in both games.

Young becomes latest elite quarterback

All eyes will turn to Bryce Young this season. He has big cleats to fill. We mentioned Tua and Jones as just the latest examples of elite quarterbacks. We haven’t even mentioned Jalen Hurts or the starters who came before him. Since Saban rose to power, Bama has had at least good, competent quarterback play or better. In the past 5 seasons, it’s been next-level.

Young has the pedigree. He was the top quarterback in the 2020 class and the No. 2 prospect overall.

Will Bama suffer from a significant drop-off at quarterback? Given the history, it isn’t likely.

Tide have 6 more All-SEC offensive players

Alabama has lost 6 All-SEC, offensive players from its national championship team last season. To some programs, that may seem like too many to return to a national championship level. It would be. Just ask LSU. They couldn’t overcome the losses of several stars in 2020. The Bayou Bengals finished 5-5 last season after winning a national title just a season before.

Will Alabama have a significant drop among its offensive starters? Most likely there will be some reduction, but Bama will replace the departed stars with uber-talented players. If there is a significant drop-off, Bama’s defense should be ready to take control.

Worst-case scenarios

The offense goes off the rails

Let’s be honest: This is probably not going to happen. Saban has admitted to embracing the score-fast philosophy that he once claimed was unhealthy for all football players, especially his own team, which wasn’t trained to think offense first at the time. They are now.

In recent seasons, Saban has adjusted and likes to score — a lot. However, Saban has some unique challenges. He must replace several key starters as mentioned above but also must replace another offensive coordinator.

Lane Kiffin and Steve Sarkisian transformed this offense into one of the nation’s most explosive for each of the past 5 years. They did it in different styles, with different quarterbacks, different playmakers. There has been a consistent trend of inconsistency on offense for Alabama. However, Saban always seems to come out on top when it comes to recent hires.

Now, former NFL and college head coach Bill O’Brien gets his shot at offensive coordinator. That may prove to be the best hire in the nation. O’Brien didn’t look cut out to be an NFL head coach, but that won’t matter in Tuscaloosa. He is considered one of the better offensive minds in college football.

Could Bama suffer from the strain of losing so many starters and coordinators? Certainly it could happen, but Saban has accepted the inevitable change and may know how to coach offense almost as well as his beloved defense. That may be a slight exaggeration, but it probably isn’t far from the truth. If not, O’Brien is ready, willing and able.

Someone breaks The Streak

Saban is 23-0 against his former assistants. That perfect mark could change this season.

Kiffin is at Ole Miss and always sets his sights on Saban. Jimbo Fisher is at Texas A&M and has the moxie and talent to at least hang with Bama if not beat their a–.

Saban can still win another national title even if he loses to a former assistant this season. There would be no shame in that. However, it would take away that talking point from journalists and broadcasters who are attracted to the streak like a moth to a lamp. It would also make Saban a bit more vulnerable.

Will it happen? If so, Fisher seems to have the best chance. It’s no secret that Kiffin desperately wants to beat Saban and will load up his best offensive approach to do so. However, the Ole Miss game is at Alabama. Fisher and the Aggies will host the Tide.

Will the streak continue? Most likely.

Alabama loses multiple games and doesn’t make the Playoff

Saban has a bevy of 5-star prospects waiting in the wings, just like every season. You may not know their names now, but you likely will before the season concludes. Still, there’s a ton to replace. If Saban’s players haven’t accepted the “next man up” mentality, then Bama could lose a couple of games.

Bama will have to travel to Florida, Texas A&M and Auburn (where the Tigers have won the past 2 at Jordan-Hare). The Crimson Tide will play Miami in Atlanta to start the season. The Canes have a legitimate QB star in D’Eriq King. Bama could lose 2 or more games this season and miss the Playoff.

Will that happen? Probably not, but that’s certainly the worst-case scenario for Saban’s juggernaut.

MORE TIDE: PREDICTING EVERY ALABAMA GAME IN 2021