Editor’s note: Saturday Down South’s annual Crystal Ball series begins today with Alabama. We’ll stay with the SEC West all week. Next week, we’ll predict every game for every SEC East team.

Even for Nick Saban, that was something.

Taking all the moving pieces of COVID and somehow cranking out an undefeated season for the ages was, in every sense, remarkable. We wondered if the playing field would be leveled without the resources of world-class facilities available for much of the offseason. Instead, the team with more talent and a stronger identity than anyone in the sport ran away with another national title.

Never before had Alabama scored points like that. The first and only other time that Saban ripped off an unbeaten season at Alabama was in 2009 when his team had an average margin of victory of 21.4 points. In 2020? Alabama’s average margin of victory was 29.1. And that was without the benefit of any FCS/Group of 5 matchups.

Pure. Dominance.

But that’s all in the past. A team that returned just 55% of last year’s production — that ranks No. 120 out of 127 FBS teams — has major questions to answer.

How does a team with its 2 best offenses in program history replace the man behind those units? Will the first half of the schedule prove too challenging for a group with so much turnover? Can Alabama generate pressure without rushing 5 in a post-Christian Barmore world?

Let’s dig into all of it.

Is this a vintage Nick Saban defense?

Yes and no. I say “yes” because there’s All-SEC talent all over the place. Hence, why the Tide represented more than half (!) of the first-team All-SEC selections on defense.

But is it about to be 2011? No chance. If a Power 5 defense holds anyone to 8.2 points per game with the current construction of the sport, knock me over with a feather.

There’s a middle ground. This secondary should be elite. You’ve got an ideal Patrick Surtain replacement in Josh Jobe. Jordan Battle might be the most physically imposing safety in America and Malachi Moore looked like a star slot corner as a true freshman.

When Alabama is at its best defensively, it feels like a group of all-world linebackers are leading the charge. That appears to be the case again this year with Christian Harris, Will Anderson and Tennessee transfer Henry To’o To’o, all of whom were preseason first-team All-SEC linebackers. They’ll have to pick up some of the pass-rushing slack without Barmore, though the Year 2 version of Anderson with an extremely experienced Harris and To’o To’o should be more than capable of doing that.

Is this Alabama team still going to play in occasional shootout? Probably. I don’t think you can expect to shut down offenses the same way you did 10 years ago. That goes for any team. But is it capable of being Alabama’s best, most complete defense since 2017? Definitely.

Replacing Steve Sarkisian will be __________.

Challenging. Not impossible. Challenging.

That’s coming from someone who believes in Bill O’Brien and would rather point to the dynamic start he had with the Texans than the failures he had as a general manager. O’Brien is getting back to his bread and butter. It’s the same bread and butter that allowed him to leave a premier college job like Penn State to get an NFL head coaching gig.

Will we see more use of the tight end? Will we see more designed looks with Bryce Young on the move? Will we get an offense that looks like it can rip off 21 points before you’ve settled into your seat?

All of those things are possible. This comes down to Young being on the same page as O’Brien. What Sarkisian did so well was improve his quarterback’s skill set. He worked with Tua Tagovailoa to get him to understand that underneath routes can be home-run plays, too. He worked with Mac Jones to understand how to keep his eyes downfield and trust his receivers to get separation.

Can O’Brien maximize Young’s skill set? I have faith in that, even if Young isn’t Deshaun Watson 2.0. It just might not always look as smooth as it did with Sarkisian. We can’t take for granted just how good he was at being on the same page as his quarterbacks.

Is John Metchie going to be the next great Alabama receiver?

It’s unfair to hold Metchie to the DeVonta Smith standard. For my money, it’s unfair to hold anybody to that standard. If you were making a Mt. Rushmore of the best college football receivers of all-time, Smith’s face is on it.

So what does that mean for Metchie? It means that any time he drops a pass or disappears for a half, he’s going to get that type of criticism. It’s not just Smith. It’s carrying the torch passed on by Jaylen Waddle, Jerry Jeudy and Henry Ruggs. Metchie might not quite have their upside, and that’s OK. He can still be a solid No. 1 wideout.

That’s what this year is all about. Before he can become an all-time great, his task has to be learning how to adjust as the guy atop every scouting report. We’ve seen him go off in games like A&M, Tennessee and even the second half of the College Football Playoff National Championship after Smith went down. Can Metchie do that in big games when he’s lined up opposite of a Derek Stingley Jr. or a Kaiir Elam? We’ll find out.

Metchie can make life a lot easier for guys like Agiye Hall, Ohio State transfer Jameson Williams and promising tight end Jahleel Billingsley. Fair or not, that bar couldn’t be any higher for the Canadian wideout. Now is his time to meet it.

Game-by-game predictions

Week 1: vs. Miami in Atlanta (W)

You want me to pick against Alabama in a season-opener? In Atlanta? That’s funny. Sorry, but even if D’Eriq King plays extremely well, I wouldn’t bank on the Tide showing up unprepared for an opener. Brian Robinson explodes and the Tide keep a talented Miami squad at an arm’s length.

Week 2: vs. Mercer (W)

I will not make a “mercy” joke about Mercer. But if I were to do such a thing, I would ask “should this game have a mercy rule?” Probably.

Week 3: at Florida (W)

What an early test for Young and this Alabama offense. Todd Grantham is going to send pressure until the cows come home. Brenton Cox, Ventrell Miller, Zachary Carter and a host of other Florida defenders will try to rattle Young in The Swamp. I expect that to put Alabama behind the sticks at times, but I don’t think we’ll see a 2019 Bo Nix-like performance from Young. Both defenses show up ready to roll, and a To’o To’o strip sack of Emory Jones proves to be the key play in the fourth quarter to put away a hard-fought Alabama win.

Week 4: vs. Southern Miss (W)

Imagine Alabama losing to a program that just signed a recruiting class ranked No. 123. Now imagine something else because that thought isn’t a productive use of your time.

Week 5: vs. Ole Miss (W)

Ah, yes. Saban vs. Lane Kiffin, Part II. It’s a showdown we all should circle. This is the part where I’m supposed to say something about how Ole Miss always gives Alabama trouble, including that shootout for the ages last year. Matt Corral won’t be scared of that atmosphere. Kiffin will have a few tricks up his sleeve. Will he also have some defensive stops up his sleeve? I don’t think so. Even if the Ole Miss defense flirts with mediocrity in 2021, I can’t imagine it slowing down the Tide enough to get out of Tuscaloosa with a win.

Week 6: at Texas A&M (L)

Yep. I think it finally happens. That is, Saban loses to one of his former assistants. Why? Didn’t Jimbo Fisher poke the beast when he said that he plans on beating Alabama’s a– while Saban is there? Perhaps. And hasn’t Fisher’s teams only led for 6 minutes and 29 seconds in 4 career games against Saban’s Alabama teams? Yep. But what’s also true is that this is the 4th game in 6 weeks to start off the season against potentially-ranked foes. I think that takes it toll on the Tide, who might not be able to overcome that A&M front with DeMarvin Leal and Jayden Peevy. A 60-minute, back-and-forth thriller is decided on a late Caleb Chapman touchdown to lift the Aggies past Alabama, sending the college football world into a frenzy.

Week 7: at MSU (W)

Zach Arnett actually led a solid defensive effort against the Tide last year. He returns one of the best cornerback duos in America in Martin Emerson and Emmanuel Forbes. So, any chance of an upset? I wouldn’t bank on it. The Alabama backfield should be able to control this one. This could be a huge Will Anderson game against that questionable MSU front. He earns SEC Defensive Player of the Week honors with multiple sacks in a comfortable Alabama victory.

Week 8: vs. Tennessee (W)

I actually think we could see Tennessee score more points against Alabama than it has in 18 years. Josh Heupel’s offense is built to light it up in a way that we haven’t seen in Knoxville in awhile. The problem? Like, besides the likely scenario that the Vols won’t stop a cold in 2021? Tennessee’s highest offensive output against Alabama since 2003 was … 21 points. This has a 52-24 feel to it.

Week 9: Bye

Week 10: vs. LSU (W)

On one hand, Smith is gone, so we can’t do the thing where we wonder if Stingley is overrated because an all-world receiver got the better of him. But while I think Stingley and the LSU defense will improve in the post-Bo Pelini era — that’s not saying much at all — I think this is where we see O’Brien’s brilliance. In an effort to avoid Stingley and Eli Ricks, this winds up being a huge Billingsley/Cameron Latu game. LSU will put up a better fight, and Max Johnson will have some moments. But an Alabama team coming into its own offensively has more moments and keeps its SEC West title hopes alive.

Week 11: vs. New Mexico State (W)

Paul Tyson, get that arm ready! Against a program with 3 wins vs. FBS teams in the past 3 years, he and Jalen Milroe should get plenty of run.

Week 12: vs. Arkansas (W)

I’m just here for Moore on Treylon Burks, who prefers to destroy dudes when he lines up in the slot. Is this maybe a brutal matchup for KJ Jefferson against that Tide front? Yeah. He’s not the guy you want making too many improv decisions outside the pocket, which is where I think he’ll spend the majority of his day (and not by design). Let’s just hope for entertainment purposes that Arkansas’ roster isn’t decimated for this matchup like it was last year.

Week 13: at Auburn (W)

People forget that Auburn won each of the past 2 Iron Bowls at Jordan-Hare. People won’t forget that because by the time this one rolls around, it’ll be used as a sell to make this game seem like it’ll be competitive. Or we’ll hear about the fact that the last time Auburn had a Year 1 coach in the Iron Bowl, “Kick 6” happened. Nope. Auburn could get 6 miracles and 11 Tank Bigsbys, and that still might not be enough to string together scoring drives. Something tells me this will be the most lopsided Alabama victory at Jordan-Hare in a decade.

2021 projection: 11-1 (7-1), 1st in SEC West

#RTR

I come back to this belief — the 2021 SEC West will be reminiscent of 2014.

Remember that year? How could you forget. Besides Katy Perry setting the internet ablaze, it was the year in which the West was loaded from No. 1-6, and an Alabama loss to Ole Miss blew up the division. At least it did for a few weeks. That is, until Alabama took control by running the table the rest of the regular season and winning the Iron Bowl to claim yet another division title.

That’s what I think happens this year. Alabama losing to A&M will feel like this earth-shattering development, and understandably so. The Tide haven’t lost a game in the first half of the schedule since 2015, and Saban is 23-0 against his former assistants. But like 2014 Ole Miss, A&M will cough up its path to Atlanta because of the gauntlet that is the SEC West.

If you’re Alabama, all you can ask for is a seat at the table in Atlanta. Considering how much talent was lost to the NFL Draft, especially on the offensive side of the ball, that would be an incredible accomplishment with how challenging this division appears to be.

And in case you were wondering, yes, some of this prediction of a rockier season — we’re still talking about an 11-1 record — is because repeating is especially hard in this sport. Alabama’s last 3 repeat attempts fell just short in the Playoff. Could this year break the trend? Or will the Tide just to be fortunate to win the SEC?

A wild 2021 awaits.