Alabama vs. Kansas State: Prediction and preview

Alabama (10-2) heads to New Orleans and looks to cap the 2022 campaign on a high note after missing the College Football Playoff. The No. 5 Crimson Tide will take on No. 9 Kansas State (10-3) in the Sugar Bowl Saturday at noon Eastern time on ESPN.

Dave Pasch, Dusty Dvoracek and Tom Luginbill will be on the TV call for the first-ever meeting on the gridiron between Alabama and Kansas State.

Alabama vs. Kansas State preview

Kansas State arrives in NOLA as Big 12 champion after knocking off No. 3 TCU 31-28 in an overtime thriller. The Wildcats are a remarkably balanced squad. On offense, they’ve gained 2,737 yards passing and 2,725 yards rushing. KSU has 4 players with 40-plus catches on the season.

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When QB Adrian Martinez was healthy, he contributed to the Kansas State rushing attack (109 carries, 615 yards, 10 TD). Since a November injury to Martinez, Will Howard has taken over at quarterback, which leaves standout RB Deuce Vaughn to lead the ground game (271 rushes, 1,425 yards, 8 TD). In the Big 12 Championship Game, Vaughn had 26 carries for 130 yards. Vaughn is also second on the team in catches with 42 receptions for 378 yards and 3 TDs.

KSU has shown it can win a shootout, scoring 40 points or more 5 times this season, but the Wildcats are a Big 12 team that actually plays defense. Kansas State enters No. 9 nationally in defensive efficiency and No. 19 in scoring defense, allowing about 20 points per game.

The Wildcats will undoubtedly be fired up playing in their biggest bowl game since a trip to the Fiesta Bowl 10 years ago. There’s no doubt about “wanting to win” for a KSU team facing mighty Alabama. What about the Crimson Tide?

Since 2008, not many Alabama teams are familiar with being out of the championship picture in the postseason. UA’s showings in non-Playoff/title bowl games have been a mixed bag. There have been losses to Utah and Oklahoma, raising questions about motivation, but also decisive wins over Michigan State and Michigan.

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The most important game note for this year’s Sugar Bowl came 2 weeks ago when Nick Saban confirmed that Bryce Young and Will Anderson will play in the bowl game. In fact, none of the NFL-bound members of the Crimson Tide are sitting out the Sugar Bowl. That’s a big deal, a’ight?

Alabama vs. Kansas State prediction

There are obvious reasons this Alabama team is No. 5 and in the Sugar Bowl instead of in the top 4 and getting ready to play a CFP semifinal. This year, Young did not have the play-making wide receivers we’re used to seeing at Alabama (though he has still managed to complete 64% of his passes for 3,000 yards and 27 touchdowns to just 5 interceptions). Last time out, the UA defense gave up 318 rushing yards on 43 carries (7.39 yards per carry) to an Auburn team with a losing record. Adding to those issues, Alabama’s depth has been hurt by players entering the transfer portal in December.

Despite every concern, it’s hard to see the Tide letting Young and Anderson down in their final game. For all Alabama’s flaws, it’s still a team that, as Saban pleaded on national TV, lost to a pair of ranked teams by 5 total points and would be one of the top-4 teams if the CFP field was set by oddsmakers. This might not be a “vintage Alabama defense,” but the Crimson Tide is still top-10 in scoring defense at 18 points per game.

Even without a full roster, Alabama has the talent advantage. And, of course, the coaching advantage. A lack of focus could potentially swing this game, but this UA squad appears to be locked in on finishing with a win.

Prediction: Alabama 34 Kansas State 30