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DFS picks: Best Underdog college basketball plays for Wednesday, Feb. 12
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Wednesday’s college basketball slate features numerous intriguing matchups, particularly across the SEC and ACC.
The SEC has 3 matchups that are worth paying attention to for a variety of reasons: Ole Miss at South Carolina, Oklahoma at Mizzou and LSU at Arkansas. Each of those games has NCAA Tournament implications for at least one of the involved teams.
The ACC’s slate for Wednesday night is headlined by Duke as the Blue Devils look to get back in the win column in a home game against Cal.
Best DFS picks for Wednesday, Feb. 12
Below are 3 picks for Wednesday night that can be found on Underdog Fantasy. If you haven’t signed up with Underdog yet, be sure to use our exclusive Underdog Fantasy promo code SDS to earn up to $1,000 in bonus cash when you join!
Johnell Davis higher than 14.5 points
Johnell Davis has been a huge part of Arkansas’s offense, particularly since Boogie Fland went down. Since Fland’s last game on Jan. 18, Davis is attempting more than 14 field goal attempts per game. That’s a significant spike in usage considering he only had 1 previous game all season with double-digit field goal attempts prior to this stretch.
His scoring output has been a bit up-and-down and is largely dependent on whether or not his 3-point shot falls. At road games against Kentucky and Texas, he hit 3’s at a 50% clip and soared above this projection. In the other 3 games over this span, Davis went 5-of-26 from 3-point range and only reached 15+ points in 1 of those games. There’s some risk here, but I don’t mind volatility when there’s a wealth of opportunity — and there clearly is with Davis’ role right now. It’s also worth noting that LSU is 14th in the SEC in 3-point percentage defense during conference play.Â
Caleb Grill lower than 13.5 points
Caleb Grill is averaging 12.5 points during SEC play. He’s only reached 14 or more in 4 of Mizzou’s 10 conference games so far this season, however. He’s been boom-or-bust as a scorer this season. Grill has gone higher than 20 points on 3 occasions during conference play and has been at or under 11 points in 5 different contests.Â
Grill is also facing an Oklahoma defense that’s been stingy against the 3-point shot this season. SEC opponents have shot just 31% from 3-point range against the Sooners this season, which ranks 4th-best in the league. The Sooners have been especially good against bench guards in SEC play. They’ve held those players to a true shooting percentage under 49% this season (league average is 52%). Bench guards also shoot just 26% from 3-point range against OU compared to 32% on average against SEC defenses.
Cooper Flagg lower than 32.5 points + rebounds + assists
Cooper Flagg has been amazing this season and is currently a Wooden Award contender. He’s averaging about 33 points + rebounds + assists during ACC play, but he hasn’t been as effective lately. He’s fallen under that projection in 2 consecutive contests and is shooting just 42% from the floor over his last 3 games. Flagg is undoubtedly the most relied-upon player in this Duke offense, but the Blue Devils do have other options that they use when necessary. Tyrese Proctor and Kon Knueppel both have usage rates above 20% and assist rates above 13%. It’s not just the Flagg show.Â
Cal’s defense is not expected to offer much resistance to Flagg or anyone else on the Blue Devils, but that may not be such a bad thing. In recent blowout wins over Syracuse, Boston College, Miami and Georgia Tech, coach Jon Scheyer has taken the opportunity to lighten Flagg’s minutes load. Flagg went well under this projection in 3 of those 4 contests. Including non-conference play, Flagg has played 30 minutes or fewer 10 times this season. Over those games, he’s reached 33 points + rebounds + assists only twice. With KenPom projecting Duke to win this game by roughly 25 points, it’s possible we’re headed for another night with a lighter minutes load for Flagg.
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
