The Best College Football Week 12 Upset Picks

Baylor dismantled Oklahoma last week, leaving the FBS ranks with just three unbeaten teams entering Week 12. Georgia faces Charleston Southern, but Cincinnati and UTSA could be pushed in their bids to remain perfect. The Bearcats will host SMU (8-2), while the Roadrunners will welcome UAB (7-3), both part of Saturday’s slate of games. While those games will draw plenty of attention, we’ve identified three other matchups that should have teams on upset alert this weekend.

Let’s jump into our best bets and top college football upset picks for Week 12, backed with complete betting analysis.

Best College Football Upsets for Week 12

Nebraska vs. Wisconsin

It appears Nebraska is committed to head coach Scott Frost for the foreseeable future, allowing the beleaguered alumnus to take a deep breath during the team’s bye week and get down to the business of winning football games down the stretch. No one will deny that Frost’s time back at his alma mater has been a letdown thus far, but he has led the program to a few records that could help the Huskers to an upset at Camp Randall on Saturday.

Frost’s Nebraska teams entered 2021 at 6-4 ATS as road dogs and the program boast a 15-11-1 ATS record in this role over the last 10 seasons. The Cornhuskers have not lost any of their last four games as road dogs ATS and went 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven as underdogs anywhere. Frost has seen his teams go 5-2 ATS in their last seven November contests, as well as 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss.

From a matchup standpoint, we like the pressure Nebraska’s 16th-ranked offense in terms of yards gained can apply to the nation’s best defense in terms of yards allowed. Wisconsin has not beaten an offense of this quality all season, losing badly to Michigan, the only other team they faced that’s averaging more yards per game than the Huskers.

Wisconsin could enter play a bit complacently, having held six straight opponents to 14 points or fewer. Nebraska is well-balanced offensively and has recently stepped it up on the other side of the ball, as well.

Nearly disastrous for Ohio State ? pic.twitter.com/OQesuiXF96

— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) November 6, 2021

Before its bye last week, Nebraska held the nation’s top scoring and yardage offense in Ohio State to just 26 points, a team that averages 46.3 points per game on the season. Now, they face a Wisconsin offense that has beaten up on Nebraska in recent seasons, mainly because Jonathan Taylor topped 200 rushing yards in three straight meetings. Now, Taylor is an Indianapolis Colt and the Badgers are running an offense that has turned the ball over the fourth most times per game this season.

Betting Trends to Know

Laying points at home and/or in conference play are not roles that have suited Wisconsin or head coach Paul Chryst. Chryst is just 17-23-1 ATS as a home favorite, including a rough 9-14 ATS record since the start of 2018. The Badgers have also failed to cover any of their last eight games as Big Ten favorites of 27 points or less against opponents with below .333 records.

Nebraska is just 3-7 SU, but has not lost a single game this season by more than this line. Their losses came by 8, 7, 3, 3, 7, 5, and 9 points, and they could catch Wisconsin peeking ahead to next week when the Badgers play Minnesota for Paul Bunyan’s Axe.

Nebraska vs. Wisconsin Pick

Expect to see Nebraska keep this one close and send the road team in this head-to-head to its fifth straight ATS win.

Our Pick: Nebraska +9.5

Virginia Tech vs. Miami

Virginia Tech parted ways with sixth-year head coach Justin Fuente earlier this week and we think that move will tip the scales and vault the Hokies to bowl eligibility. Virginia Tech missed out on a bowl game in 2020 for the first time in 28 years, but are a mere win away from gaining eligibility once again.

Lot of history going into this one pic.twitter.com/fWkTQKBHqN

— Virginia Tech Football (@HokiesFB) November 19, 2021

Fuente was 14-8-1 ATS in his head coaching career as a road underdog and Virginia Tech has gone 11-8 ATS in that role since the start of the 2011 season. Fuente also guided the team to a 38-5 SU mark when leading at the half, including 4-1 this season.

His memory could serve the Hokies well in that regard here, as Miami has trailed at the half in seven of its last nine games.

Like Virginia Tech, Miami enters play at 5-5 SU, just a win away from becoming bowl eligible, but the difference is in each team’s final opponent. Whereas Virginia Tech has a tough road trip to Charlottesville to face in-state rivals Virginia, a team that may still be vying for a Coastal Division crown, Miami has the comfort of drawing hapless Duke for its finale, a team that is 0-6 in ACC play.

Betting Trends to Know

Even if Miami is to pull off the win here, they will be defying quite a recent history in conference play. All six of the Hurricanes’ ACC games this season were decided by four points or less, with the Canes going 3-3 SU and ATS. Miami’s conference home games have been the most narrow, with a two-point loss and two wins by a total of four points.

The Hurricanes were 0-2 ATS in those games when listed as favorites.

Interestingly, Miami had lost the most games outright in the FBS over the last three seasons when listed as favorites (11) and have managed to add three more to this embarrassing total this season. Furthermore, this head-to-head series has produced nine outright upsets in the last 22 meetings, including each of the two most recent encounters.

Miami has covered just two of its last 10 home games and just one of its last seven as favorites. In fact, the Hurricanes are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven outings as home favorites. They have also dropped seven straight ATS off a SU loss as a favorite against an opponent with a .700 or lower win percentage.

Virginia Tech, which beat Duke 48-17 last week as 13.5-point favorites, has covered nine of its 13 after scoring 41 or more points prior. The Hokies are also 11-1 ATS off a double-digit ATS victory when facing an opponent off a SU loss as a favorite (Miami lost 31-28 to Florida State last week as 2.5 point favorites).

Virginia Tech vs. Miami Pick

Look for the Hokies to win one for their former coach, Fuente, achieving bowl eligibility and moving VT to 8-3 ATS in the school’s last 11 trips to Miami.

Our Pick: Virginia Tech +8

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Oklahoma State vs. Texas Tech

This is a massive lookahead spot for Oklahoma State. The Cowboys currently sit tied with Oklahoma atop the Big 12 and face the Sooners next week in the regular season finale. Thus, even a loss this week by either (or both) teams still leaves a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game to the winner of next week’s game, rendering this week’s results immaterial on some level.

Of course, Oklahoma State will want to maintain its one-loss record and set itself up for the best bowl situation possible. However, if met with adversity here on the road or if set up with a comfortable lead late, wouldn’t the prudent thing to do for this run-first Cowboys team be to play it safe, ensure the win, and go into next week as fresh and healthy as possible, knowing that’s where the bread is truly buttered?

That’s right, Oklahoma State rushes for nearly 200 yards per game, 32nd best in FBS play. The Cowboys rely upon controlling the clock with that run game and playing suffocating defense with a group that allows the third least yards per game and the eighth least points per game in the country. However, the result of that approach does not lend to scoring a ton of points or covering big spreads against capable offenses.

In fact, the Cowboys scored between 21 and 32 points in 8 of their 10 games this season. Laying double digits here will be tough then, as Texas Tech has scored at least 21 points in all 10 of its games this season and averages 33.6 points per game, 29th best in the land.

This will be the first time Oklahoma State lays more than 3.5 points on the road this season, a telling fact in and of itself. It will be just the second time Texas Tech is listed as double-digit home underdogs.

If you haven’t heard about the other time yet, it was last week when the Red Raiders kicked a 62-yard field goal as time expired to knock off Iowa State on this field as 13.5 point underdogs.

WALK-OFF WINNER!!!!@jon_garibay9 CALLED GAME WITH THIS ? pic.twitter.com/vSwacacUFk

— Texas Tech Football (@TexasTechFB) November 14, 2021

Betting Trends to Know

Texas Tech has lost just two of its last 10 games ATS when getting points at home. The team has also covered 12 straight ATS as dogs of more than two points after allowing more than 34 points against an above .400 opponent. Two of those ATS wins came this year, in fact.

Oklahoma State has failed to cover any of the last five head-to-head meetings with Texas Tech, despite being ranked in each of those games. That tells you that the Cowboys don’t take the Red Raiders seriously enough. Texas Tech was an underdog of at least nine points in each of those encounters, yet still managed to win two of the last three outright.

Oklahoma State vs. Texas Tech Pick

A win here would guarantee the Red Raiders their first winning season since 2015. We think they have a fair chance to do so, as they have covered this game’s line in four of their last five senior days, including each of the last three.

Our Pick: Texas Tech +10.5

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