South Carolina hosts Florida (3:30 pm, Saturday, SEC Network) in a battle of SEC East teams that are desperate, albeit for different reasons.

The Gators (4-2, 2-1) face the toughest 2nd-half schedule in college football, per the Football Power Index. With games against No. 1 Georgia, at No. 22 LSU, at Missouri, and No. 5 Florida State still on tap, Saturday’s game in Columbia is critical if Florida hopes to get the 6 wins needed for bowl eligibility. Florida has not suffered 3 consecutive losing seasons since 1945-1947. Beating South Carolina is a must if the Gators hope to realistically avoid that fate in 2023.

The Gators’ biggest storyline is the opportunity to take a step forward as a program and win a conference road game. Florida’s road struggles under Billy Napier and his predecessor, Dan Mullen, are well-documented. The Gators are 1-7 as a program under Napier on the road and Florida is just 5-12 this decade in road games, with 3 of those wins coming in the 2020 season, when the Gators reached the SEC Championship Game. A win at Williams-Brice Stadium wouldn’t end the doubt surrounding Florida’s ability to win on the road, but it would be a much-needed step in the right direction for Napier and his young football team.

The Gamecocks need a win desperately as well. South Carolina was picked to finish 3rd in the SEC East after winning 8 games a season ago, including late-season wins over a top 5 Tennessee team and a top 10 Clemson team. The opening month of the season has been a brutal reality check for Shane Beamer’s program, with losses to North Carolina in Charlotte and a blowout loss at Tennessee prior the bye week. The Gamecocks have been better at home, as you’d expect, beating Mississippi State 37-30 in their lone SEC home game. But after a slow start (2-3, 1-2), Beamer’s program needs a strong close to the season after going 0-3 against ranked opponents to open the campaign.

The oddsmakers have made South Carolina a betting favorite, with the current 2.5-point spread representing just the 3rd time the Gamecocks have been favored over the Gators since 1997.

Who has the edge? Here are 3 key matchups that will define Florida and South Carolina, followed by a prediction on who wins.

South Carolina’s offensive line vs. Princely Umanmielen

The Gamecocks’ offensive line has been a mess.

South Carolina has surrendered 23 quarterback sacks in 5 games, including 9 against North Carolina and 6 at Tennessee. That’s the 4th-worst number in the Power 5. Florida generated constant pressure on South Carolina quarterback Spencer Rattler a season ago, with defensive end Princely Umanmielen at the center of that havoc, generating 7 pressures and a sack in Florida’s 38-6 win.

Umanmielen was listed this week as a midseason All-American by PFF, and he has produced 18 pressures and 2 sacks through 6 games. He was named the East-West Shrine Bowl Defensive Player of the Week for a 5 pressure performance last weekend in Florida’s 38-6 win over Vanderbilt.

Spencer Rattler has been marvelous this year, especially when given time to throw. Rattler has completed 73.0% of his passes, and he’s made smart plays to limit turnovers and create big plays with his legs as well, as he did on this fantastic run against Tennessee.

 

Like most, Rattler is decidedly less good under pressure. He’s completed just 43% of his passes under pressure this season and his yards per attempt number falls from 8.3 yards per attempt to just 6 per throw.

The Gamecocks start a hodgepodge of transfers and a youth up front, including blue-chip freshman Tree Babalade, who handles Rattler’s blind side. They won’t block Florida the entire game. The question is how much and how often they can limit Florida’s pass rush. Austin Armstrong loves to bring pressure, but that comes with risk because it leaves the Gators vulnerable in coverage. If South Carolina can hold their blocks long enough, Rattler can hurt Florida downfield, especially if offensive coordinator Dowell Loggains can isolate star wide receiver Xavier Legette in 1-on-1 situations with the Florida secondary.

 

That’s where Rattler has made his living this season, and given Florida has surrendered 63 plays of 20 yards or more (11th in the SEC), holding blocks just long enough to give Rattler a chance may be the key to the game.

Xavier Legette vs. Jason Marshall Jr. and Florida’s young safeties

Legette’s breakout started late in the 2022 season, when he made this catch against Notre Dame in the Gator Bowl.

The momentum has carried over into 2023. Legette ranks 3rd in the SEC in receiving yards and No. 1 (among eligible receivers with 20 catches or more) in yards per reception at 18.94. Legette has been a monster at Williams-Brice, catching 13 passes for a staggering 307 yards and 3 touchdowns in South Carolina’s 2 home games. With Juice Wells still out with an injury he suffered in the loss at Georgia, Legette has to carry the load for the Gamecocks on Saturday.

Opposing him will be former 5-star corner Jason Marshall Jr. The Miami product gets a tough time from Gators fans, who hammered him after he was beaten for an early touchdown at Utah and again by Will Sheppard of Vanderbilt for an 85-yard touchdown last week. The Sheppard touchdown came on a missed call (offensive hands to the face), though, and Marshall steadied himself afterward, allowing only 1 other completion on 6 Vanderbilt attempts. Florida corners Jalen Kimber and Devin Moore both grade out ahead of Marshall, per PFF, but Marshall remains the guy Florida uses most in 1-on-1 coverage situations (77 snaps).

Florida went to 2-high safety looks against Tennessee to help Marshall over the top, and both of Florida’s young safeties, true freshman Jordan Castell and sophomore Miguel Mitchell, are capable, as is true freshman Bryce Thornton. Armstrong needs to give Marshall help on Saturday, as Legette is the biggest threat on either side to change the game in one play.

Florida’s evolving run game vs. South Carolina’s struggling run defense

Florida’s run game showed signs of progress against Vanderbilt, and not just because they were able to get a consistent push up front for the first time since their dominant win over then-No. 11 Tennessee. It was the way Florida added new elements to the run game that helped it attain its highest success rate (64%) on the ground this season. Florida ran out of traditional passing formations, such as this bunch set, to create schematic confusion for Vanderbilt.

The pulling tackle here, Damieon George, gets leverage and has help from an inside receiver, allowing Treyaun Webb to get close to the pylon on a 9-yard run. Florida’s film showed 8 passes and 0 runs in this formation until Saturday, and bucking tendencies helped give the Gators’ run game a spark.

Florida also ran with 2-back sets, using Montrell Johnson as a lead blocker, to give their offensive line a lift, and the result of the first such rub was a touchdown for electric freshman Tre Wilson.

Saturday was the 2nd game (Tennessee) this season where Florida’s explosive run rate exceeded its stuffed run rate. That’s a positive development. The Gators’ new run game concepts, coupled with the return of their best running back, Trevor Etienne, should give the Gamecocks plenty to think about.

The Gamecocks’ run defense has been much better at home, limiting Furman and Miss State to just 2.0 yards per carry and 55 yards per game. If that South Carolina run defense shows up, it’s hard to see a path to a Florida victory, as quarterback Graham Mertz, who is a capable game manager, has not been able to win games this season without the complementary football Billy Napier’s west coast offense requires.

Prediction: South Carolina 27, Florida 23

It’s tempting to pick the Gators, who are better than South Carolina on both lines of scrimmage. But Florida has to prove it on the road, and until they show me, it’s hard to pick them in any road environment, let alone one as loud as Williams-Brice. Florida can talk all they want about getting better sleep on Wednesday and Thursday night and getting to the stadium earlier, but ultimately, it’s about urgency and physicality on the road.

While I expect a better effort on the road from Florida, who should be able to generate some pass rush and limit the Gamecocks offensively at times on Saturday, I still am leaning towards a narrow South Carolina win thanks to Rattler, who will continue an impressive senior campaign on Saturday and beat the Gators for the second time in his career. Shane Beamer’s team should benefit from a bye week to prepare and they’ll limit the Gators run game enough to get critical stops. A few big plays from Rattler and Legette will do the rest, helping South Carolina earn a critical victory.