A season ago, the South Carolina Gamecocks flipped a switch against Florida and sent Dan Mullen home with his tail between his legs, routing the Gators, 40-17. The win helped the Gamecocks to a strong close to Shane Beamer’s 1st season in Columbia, which ultimately included a big win over North Carolina in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl. The loss was one of the final nails in Mullen’s coffin at Florida, and Mullen was fired less than 2 weeks later when the Gators fell at Missouri.

The teams meet again Saturday on Senior Day at The Swamp (4 p.m. ET, SEC Network). This time, it’s the Gators looking to close strong in Year 1 under a new regime, while Beamer’s Gamecocks, already bowl-eligible at 6-3, are hoping to set the tone for a brutal final 2-game stretch against No. 5 Tennessee and at No. 10 Clemson. There’s a huge difference between 9-3, 8-4 and 6-6 in Year 2, and Beamer needs this game to have a chance for an 8- or 9-win regular season and a favorable bowl invite. The Gators, on the other hand, are trying to avoid 3 losses at The Swamp, something that hasn’t happened in Gainesville since the ill-fated 2017 season, the final at Florida for Jim McElwain. A win would also make Florida bowl-eligible for the 2nd consecutive season, and with Vanderbilt and a Black Friday date at No. 23 remaining, the Gators, too, have an 8 win-season on their mind.

Here are 3 matchups that will define an intriguing SEC showdown, followed by a prediction.

Will Florida avoid a 2021 repeat against the Gamecocks’ run game?

A season ago, South Carolina ran for an SEC program-high 284 yards against Florida on just 42 carries, burying the Gators with the power run game on its way to a blowout win.

South Carolina’s formula for winning isn’t much different in 2022, even with former 5-star Spencer Rattler at quarterback as opposed to Division III transfer Jason Brown, who started last year’s Florida game.

South Carolina’s best performances have started and ended with the run game. The Gamecocks rushed for 297 yards and 5 touchdowns in their wins over Texas A&M and at Kentucky, largely behind the outstanding play of running back MarShawn Lloyd. The sophomore star missed last week’s win at Vanderbilt with a deep thigh bruise, but he has practiced (albeit in a limited nature in at least 1) this week and is expected to try to play against the Gators.

Lloyd has an outstanding blend of speed, balance and physicality that makes him 1 of the SEC’s best running backs, frequently appearing in the SDS Top 10 SEC Player Power rankings. 

Lloyd doesn’t just power the South Carolina run game, either. He’s a versatile player whom offensive coordinator Marcus Satterfield loves to use in the screen game.

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On the season, Lloyd is far and away the most productive South Carolina running back, so it is vital to the Gamecocks that he play. His 5.56 yard-per-rush average is a staggering 2.6 better than any other South Carolina running back, and he has broken 45 tackles and averages 4.29 after contact, the best such numbers in the SEC. 

In South Carolina’s losses, the failure to run the ball has been fatal, especially in the humbling 24-10 home defeat to Missouri, where the Gamecocks managed just 32 yards on 23 attempts. Lloyd had 30 yards on 7 carries in that game — his teammates had 2 yards on 16 attempts.

Lloyd will square off Saturday against one of the SEC’s worst run defenses in Florida, The Gators rank 111th in the country against the run (12th in the SEC) and surrender 4.7 yards per attempt, which also ranks 12th in the SEC. Florida has held just 1 SEC opponent (Kentucky) under 100 yards rushing, and 2 opponents, Georgia and Tennessee, have rushed for more than 200. If Florida can’t slow the Gamecocks’ run game Saturday, it could be a long afternoon. Given the reality that Lloyd is the best back from a production standpoint that the Gators have faced in 2022, you have to like South Carolina’s chances to win this matchup.

Will Florida’s talented corners force a few Rattler mistakes?

Put charitably, Florida is a work in progress at safety, at least 2 Billy Napier recruiting classes from fixing the mess that is the back end of the secondary. That said, the strength of Florida’s defense is at corner, where the Gators have 2 who rank in the PFF top 100, and 4 in the top 150 (Jalen Kimber, Jason Marshall Jr., Avery Helm and Jadarrius Perkins). A 4th corner, Jaydon Hill, had a 2-interception game in Florida’s win over Missouri last month. The Gators are deep at corner, and all 4 have good technique in coverage, even if they don’t always win 1-on-1 dogfights for the ball (for Helm and Marshall, the best of Florida’s corners, that skill will come). At their best, as in the Missouri game, the Gators’ corners have been huge playmaking weapons.

They’ve also been challenged by either safety play and Florida’s lack of quality coverage linebackers, which creates a catch-22. When Florida has safety help, it isn’t always reliable. And sometimes it can’t have safety help, because it needs the safety on the tight end.

Saturday, however, the Gators should be able to handle South Carolina’s passing game, as long as Marshall can contain talented wide receiver Antwane Wells Jr. Florida’s corners also could make some big plays against Rattler, who has thrown 9 interceptions this season.

A Heisman candidate early in his career, Rattler has struggled to recapture the magic that made him Cotton Bowl MVP against this Florida program as a freshman at Oklahoma. The highly accurate throws and big-arm talent and athleticism are all still there, of course. But Rattler has been mistake-prone over the past 2 seasons, tossing 14 interceptions in 14 starts.

The Gators have won the turnover battle in their past 3 games, which included 2 interceptions of Stetson Bennett IV in the Cocktail Party. For the Gators to win a 2nd consecutive SEC game for the 1st time since 2020, they need to do that again Saturday. And their best chance for turnovers is against the Gamecocks’ passing game.

Florida’s offensive line against South Carolina’s rebuilt defensive front

A big question for South Carolina entering the 2022 season was how it would handle losing 3 starters on the defensive line. The Gamecocks have recruited well up front, and the group features 7 blue-chip players, including 5-star Jordan Burch, who has been a very productive player for the Gamecocks as a sophomore. He also remains 1 of the most insanely athletic players in the SEC, as this interception a season ago demonstrates.

Still, there have been growing pains. South Carolina has a solid defense overall, ranking 37th in SP+ defensive efficiency and 38th in defensive success rate. But the Gamecocks have really struggled against quality run games, as they were gutted on the ground in losses to Arkansas (295 yards rushing) and Georgia (208). Those losses came early in the season, and the Gamecocks have gotten better since. But even last week, Vanderbilt hammered out 226 yards rushing against South Carolina.

That spells problems for Beamer’s team on Saturday.

The Florida offensive line is the best in the SEC, per Pro Football Focus’ grades, and Florida ranks 20th in the country in rushing offense, 7th in success rate and 2nd in yards per run (to UCLA). Guard O’Cyrus Torrence leads the way, grading out as the nation’s best run blocker, per PFF, but the Gators also have outstanding talents at center in Kingsley Eguakun and at tackle in the duo of Richard Gouraige and Austin Barber. Florida uses a number of pulling concepts with any of these players to really help its backs get downhill, and it is loaded at running back, with Montrell Johnson Jr. and Trevor Etienne both among the national leaders in explosive runs. Both are absolutely lethal if they get into the 2nd level, as these runs demonstrate.

Etienne, a true freshman, is a bit more elusive than Johnson, a sophomore, who is a bit more powerful. But the duo is dynamic. 

Florida seems to have a huge mismatch here, similar to the one South Carolina used to dominate Florida a season ago. The difference, of course, is that the Gamecocks have an elite running back of their own facing a poor Florida run defense. Which group best exploits its schematic mismatch? That often decides football games, and will again Saturday.

Prediction: Florida 27, South Carolina 19

Florida will finish its season at The Swamp with a big win over a quality opponent, led by its run game and a defense that does plenty of bending but not much breaking against the Gamecocks’ offense. One area to watch for, if the Gamecocks defy this prediction and win? Special teams. South Carolina is 1st in the country in special teams efficiency, and Beamer’s group can do everything, from kicking field goals to running back kickoffs to blocking punts. Florida needs to have all 3 phases buttoned up to get bowl-eligible.