Florida visits Texas A&M Saturday (Noon, ESPN) in a battle between desperate teams needing wins as they pursue bowl eligibility.

The similarities between the teams does not necessarily end there. But the programs certainly enter Saturday’s game in drastically different places.

The Gators are in Year 1 under Billy Napier, and program insiders and people in football circles alike have great respect for the foundation Napier is laying in Gainesville. Florida hasn’t won an SEC championship since 2008. And while the Gators did have a few positive years in the time since, the 2010s were the program’s worst from a win percentage standpoint since the SEC fully integrated in 1972. The rebuild and road back is long, and while an opening night win over No. 7 Utah heightened expectations quickly, 2022 was first and foremost about foundation building in Gainesville. Napier is doing that dirty work.

Meanwhile, foundations appear to be crumbling at Texas A&M. Jimbo Fisher was hired to a record contract and Texas-sized fanfare, along with immense expectations in December 2017. Nearly 5 years later, Fisher has stacked the roster with elite talent but delivered few results, leaving Aggies fans questioning the return on their substantial investment. Fisher’s record — 37-19 — matches his predecessor, Kevin Sumlin, in terms of win percentage (.661), and the Aggies have yet to win an SEC West title (3 teams have in that span). Texas A&M did advance to an Orange Bowl under Fisher following the 2020 season, but it otherwise has not found its way into the New Year’s 6 under Fisher’s leadership. Fisher’s buyout remains a prohibitive $86 million, thanks to a guaranteed contract. But his inability to elevate the program beyond the Sumlin status quo have led to serious questions about whether Texas A&M would consider finding the money and moving on either this winter or in the event 2023 isn’t any better.

Saturday, the current teams fielded by these programs will collide in College Station, in a game that may ultimately be defined by the desperation of both sides.

Here are 3 matchups SDS believes will define Florida-Texas A&M.

Is Conner Weigman’s 2nd start as promising as his 1st?

Ole Miss isn’t a defensive juggernaut, but anytime a quarterback is 28-for-44 for 338 yards and 4 touchdowns, it’s safe to say he had a great day. Considering that was start No. 1 for the 5-star talent out of Cypress, Texas, Aggies fans must feel a glimmer of hope about what the future holds. Weigman’s 2nd start mirrors his 1st, in many ways. He’ll be at home playing a subpar defense (it is fair to debate whether simply calling Florida’s defense “subpar” is kind). Can he produce similar results? If he does, it is hard to see Texas A&M losing the game.

Weigman’s talent, from a thrower perspective, is the best that Fisher has had in College Station.

He can make plays with his legs, too, though FIsher didn’t call any designed quarterback runs, and mostly, Weigman simply used athleticism to extend plays in the pocket. The 1 area Weigman struggled was 3rd down, where the Aggies were just 5-of-14. In those situations, it might make sense for Fisher to shorten the field and move the pocket more — even Georgia did that against the Gators, disregarding corner Jason Marshall Jr. on 3rd downs and rolling Stetson Bennett IV in the pocket away from Marshall’s side for 2 of Georgia’s big conversions in the Dawgs’ 42-20 Cocktail Party win last weekend.

As for Florida, the lone strength of this defense is at corner, where Marshall, Jalen Kimber and Avery Helm have all played well enough to rank in the top 100 among PFF corners this season. Marshall will likely match up with Texas A&M freshman phenom Evan Stewart, in a matchup that will have NFL scouts salivating. Stewart, who made the leaping catch on the touchdown above and did a David Tyree impression as well against Ole Miss, is as good a wide receiver as Florida has seen since the Tennessee game. And Jalin Hyatt and the Vols piled up 38 on the Gators, mostly exploiting Florida’s poor safety play by scheming quality matchups against anyone but Marshall and Kimber.

One of the biggest issues for a young quarterback is processing everything pre-snap. Patrick Toney needs to use more of his simulated pressures and move his linebackers around to create some eye candy for Weigman to think about. Young quarterbacks need to think about things other than protections and who his 1st and 2nd read is, and if you make him do that, you can be successful defensively.

Florida has to frustrate Weigman a bit, especially since as good as his numbers were, Fisher likely spent a great deal of this week talking to him about how the Aggies had 4 drives in Rebels territory that ended with 0 points. If he finishes drives this week, it could be a breakout game for a Texas A&M squad that desperately needs one.

Will the Gators run game get its mojo back?

Florida entered the Georgia game with the SEC’s 3rd-ranked rushing offense, behind only Ole Miss and Alabama, and ranked 1st in the country in yards per attempt. The Bulldogs and their defensive front, buoyed by the return of lock 1st-rounder Jalen Carter, put a halt to Florida’s run game dominance. The Gators ran for just 100 yards and a season low 2.9 yards per attempt.

The Gators’ best chance to win Saturday is the same formula they needed to have a chance to win the Georgia game: run the ball, shorten the game and keep the opposing offense off the field as much as possible.

The Gators still have the 2nd-best offensive line in the SEC, per the PFF rankings, and Texas A&M just surrendered 390 yards rushing to the best line in Ole Miss. O’Cyrus Torrence, Florida’s outstanding guard, grades out as the nation’s best run blocker, even after the Georgia debacle. Right tackle Austin Barber, a freshman, grades out as the SEC’s 2nd-best offensive tackle this season — incredible stuff and why Barber has appeared on most Freshman All-America lists. The Gators are especially good in the counter game, where they can get their talented guards and a very athletic center in Kingsley Eguakun pulling. This terrific run by Montrell Johnson Jr. against an elite Missouri run defense is one example of how Florida can bully you in the counter game.

The Gators also have very talented running backs, led by Johnson and complemented by sensational freshman Trevor Etienne. The latter played well against Georgia, and he’s tough to bring down, as his broken tackle percentage demonstrates.

 

Florida remains ranked 3rd in the country in yards per rush, making it the 2nd-best team (Alabama) the Aggies have faced in that category this season. The Crimson Tide largely held off A&M’s upset bid by running for 286 yards on 54 carries, and you can bet Napier has gone to school on that film. That was A&M pre-Weigman, but the formula for the Gators will be the same. The Aggies have the 2nd-worst run defense Florida has played this season (after South Florida), ranking 121st in the country against the run.

As well as Florida has played at times, its talent hasn’t afforded it many huge mismatches. The Gators’ offensive line against Texas A&M’s horrendous run defense is a huge mismatch. But games aren’t played on paper, and Florida must execute.

The wild cards: Devon Achane and Anthony Richardson

The game features 2 gamebreaking players in Texas A&M running back Achane and Florida quarterback Richardson.

Achane ranks among the SEC leaders in rushing with 765 yards. He’s doing that behind an offensive line that grades out 10th in the SEC, which tells you a great deal about Achane’s ability to sneak through small holes and make explosive plays when he gets to the 2nd level. Ole Miss did a terrific job adjusting and putting the game in Weigman’s hands in the 2nd half, and the freshman was good, but not great, without Achane’s talents in the run game.

That’s no surprise to anyone who has watched the Aggies this autumn. The wild card for their offense is always Achane, who also leads the SEC in receptions by a running back with 33. With the exception of 1 game against Miami, Achane’s production is predictive of the Aggies’ scoring output. If Achane goes over 100 total yards, the Aggies score 21 points or more. When he does not, the Aggies score 20 points or fewer. If Achane has a big game Saturday, the Aggies are in business. If Florida slows him the way Alabama did or the way Appalachian State did, the Gators will have a great chance to win.

Richardson, despite increased criticism from small but loud circles of the fan base, has improved all season. And while he missed a handful of open receivers in the Georgia game on overthrows, he also threw his lowest percentage of interceptable passes this season, and he did it against the best defense he has played, helping Florida gain 371 yards against the Bulldogs — the best output for a Georgia opponent this season. Richardson’s accuracy problems certainly affected Florida’s bottom line, as the SEC Stat Cat chart below demonstrates.

But Florida has been an electric offense at times when Richardson has played well, including in a 38-33 loss at current CFP No. 1 Tennessee, when Richardson produced more than 500 yards of offense. Florida fans are anxious for their talented quarterback to take the next step. Doing so against a very talented A&M secondary would be a positive sign, but it’s one the Gators need if they are to win.

Prediction: Texas A&M 34, Florida 31

The Gators have fought hard all season, and that trend will continue on Saturday. But 2 huge factors favor the Aggies: homefield advantage, and Fisher’s unbelievable 8-1 career mark against the Gators. The Aggies also seem close to righting the ship. They played relatively well — by their 2022 standards — against Ole Miss, and they’ll snap their 4-game losing streak Saturday thanks to Achane and Stewart getting the best of Florida’s lackluster safety play. Look for a Richardson interception late to seal Florida’s fate, and send both teams home from Kyle Field with 4-5 records.