Billy Napier is entering his second season as Florida’s head coach. A prominent national college football writer doesn’t think Napier will make it through the 2023 season.

Stewart Mandel, editor-in-chief of The Athletic’s college football coverage, shared his 2023 SEC predictions on Wednesday. Mandel predicts Napier will be fired in 2023, writing that a 3-9 showing, including a 1-7 mark against SEC opponents, will keep the head coach from reaching a third season in Gainesville:

“Week 11. Big-brand SEC programs don’t let coaches have two bad seasons, and Napier, 6-7 in his first one, has the makings of a last-place team this fall. That former Wisconsin quarterback Graham Mertz is his best option at that position does not bode well. If he really goes 3-9, the boosters will find $32 million to pull the plug.”

Napier’s first season ended in disappointing fashion. After Florida secured bowl eligibility with 6 wins, the Gators suffered a stunning loss at Vanderbilt, dropped the annual rivalry clash with Florida State and were blown out by Oregon State in the Las Vegas Bowl.

Going into Year 2, Napier has improved his standing with the Florida fanbase by assembling a 2024 recruiting class that currently ranks No. 3 nationally on the 247Sports Composite. Napier’s approval rating within Gator Nation may change if the games play out as Mandel is predicting. As Paul Finebaum noted, and Urban Meyer experienced, Florida fans aren’t known for handling losing well.

Florida is projected to play the second-toughest schedule in the country, according to ESPN’s FPI. In addition to the usual SEC slate, the Gators open the season at No. 14 Utah and end the year against Florida State, ranked No. 8 in the preseason AP Top 25.

Mandel isn’t the first analyst to predict a losing season in Year 2 for Napier. Takeo Spikes of the SEC Network turned some heads when he recently predicted UF to go 4-8. Saturday Down South’s Connor O’Gara is a bit higher on Florida, predicting the Gators make a bowl game and beat 2 rivals at home.