Florida faces in-state foe UCF on Thursday night in the Gasparilla Bowl (7 p.m., ESPN) at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa. The game will be the first meeting between the Gators and  UCF since eventual national champion Florida clobbered the Knights 42-0 in Gainesville in 2006.

This game figures to be a much fairer fight, with a hungry UCF squad squaring off against a Florida team playing for the final time under a skeleton, interim staff led by Greg Knox, who took over after Dan Mullen was fired in November. 

In many ways, the game sets up as a preview of what’s to come.

After years of dodging Florida, including a $100,000 payment made by UCF to the University of Florida to not to play the Gators in 2009 and UCF’s rejection of an ESPN documented 2-for-1 offer from Florida athletic director Scott Stricklin in the aftermath of UCF’s 2017 undefeated season, there was no avoiding this game for the Knights.

The good news? They get the Gators on a neutral field just 90 minutes from their campus. Even better? UCF’s new athletic director Terry Mohajir had the good sense to embrace Stricklin’s standing 2-for-1 offer and the programs are slated to meet again in 2024, 2030 and 2033. As such, the Gasparilla Bowl is the first of 4 scheduled meetings over the next 12 years, all good news for UCF as it prepares to join the Big 12 and become part of the fabric of Power 5 football.

You can debate Florida’s motivation, but a Florida win would give the Gators 4 wins over in-state opponents for the first time in school history and leave no doubt that even at 7-6, the Gators remain the premier program in the state.

The game matters immensely to UCF, for other reasons.

When Gus Malzahn took the UCF job, he inherited one of the better gigs in the sport — a massive public university in a blossoming city with solid resources in the middle one of the most fertile recruiting areas in college football. UCF’s move to the Big 12 only solidifies UCF’s status as a top 25 job in college football. Eventually, though, UCF has to show it can beat the likes of Florida, FSU and Miami.

A win Thursday is a statement that UCF is headed down that path.

Thursday’s game is a sell-out and, given the backdrop, it’s easy to see why this is one of the more intriguing matchups of the bowl season.

Here are 3 matchups SDS thinks will define the Gasparilla Bowl.

Will Emory Jones protect the football against an outstanding UCF secondary?

Emory Jones was up and down this season. His biggest problem was his inability to protect the football. As a first-year starter, some mistakes were expected. Jones simply made too many of them. He tossed 13 interceptions in 11 starts, including 2 terribly costly picks in an upset loss at LSU and 3 against rival FSU to close the regular season. Interim head coach Greg Knox eventually benched Jones in the third quarter of the FSU game, allowing backup Anthony Richardson to lead the Gators to 17 second-half points and a victory.

Richardson will not play Thursday, hobbled by a meniscus injury he aggravated against FSU.

That means the Gasparilla Bowl is Jones’ show. It’s a huge game for Jones, who entered the transfer portal earlier this month and will be, in all likelihood, playing his final game in a Florida uniform. Jones’ talent isn’t in doubt, but he has to play smarter to be successful at his next destination.

He’ll face a stiff test in a Knights pass defense that has been terrific in 2021. UCF finished the season ranked 12th in the country in pass efficiency defense, led by a tremendous pair of corners, Corey Thornton and Davonte Brown. Brown graded out as one of the top corners in the sport in 2021, per Pro Football Focus, collecting an American Athletic Conference high 10 pass breakups and grabbing an interception. His ability to constantly be near the football means he’ll need to be a focal point for Jones, who too often tried to force the ball in tight windows on the boundary this season (8 of his 13 interceptions were outside the hashmark throws).

The Knights aren’t just steady at corner; Divaad Wilson, a former Florida commit and high 4-star recruit who transferred from Georgia, is capable on the backend and grabbed 2 interceptions on the campaign. He is a magnificent tackler in space.

Jones has played some spectacular football in 2021, but most of that came early in the year, when he diced up Alabama for 282 total yards and 29 points and was SEC Player of the Week with over 300 yards of total offense and 2 touchdowns in Florida’s 38-14 rout of Tennessee. He’s at his best when he doesn’t force throws and opts to use his legs when things aren’t open downfield.

If that Jones shows up Thursday night, Florida will win. He should have his best target, Jacob Copeland, at his disposal as well, as Copeland has practiced this week and SDS has been told by multiple sources that Copeland intends to play.

But UCF is really good in the secondary, and this matchup may define the game.

Johnny Richardson and Isaiah Bowser and the UCF run game vs. Florida’s shorthanded front 7

Florida isn’t overwhelmed by a plague of opt-outs as they were a season ago in the blowout Cotton Bowl loss to Oklahoma. As noted above, star wide receiver Jacob Copeland should play and preseason All-American corner Kaiir Elam will also suit up.

But the Gators will be shorthanded up front. Senior Zachary Carter, the team’s defensive MVP in 2021, opted out, and one of Florida’s primary edge backups, Khris Bogle, is transferring to Michigan State and will not play. Florida’s leading tackler, junior Mohamoud Diabate, is also in the transfer portal and will not play.

That means a Florida defense that struggled to stop the run all season will be without its leading tackler and best edge setter (Carter), along with a key backup. None of that bodes well for Florida against a UCF run game that averaged 189 yards per game in 2021 and ranked an impressive 19th in the country in yards per rush attempt (5.2). Even more impressive? UCF closed the season by averaging 6.4 per carry in their final 3 games (SMU, UConn, USF). In other words, Malzahn’s team is doing what Malzahn teams do best — run the ball — as well as they have all year entering the bowl game.

Isaiah Bowser, a transfer from Northwestern who led a good NU team in rushing in 2020, has battled injuries all season and hasn’t played since Nov. 6. If he plays, he’s precisely the type of physical, high yards-after-contact back that has given Florida fits this season. The Gators have fared better against Johnny Richardson types, who are dangerous in space but a bit easier to bring down before they access the second level.

UCF quarterback Mikey Keene isn’t going to beat you exclusively with his arm. He’s thrown for over 200 yards just 3 times in 2021 and UCF’s success rate on passing downs ranked 9th in the AAC. The Knights have to run the ball to win. But against a shorthanded Florida front 7, they should have a strong chance to do just that.

The turnover battle (or will Florida’s tenacious pass rush create turnovers?)

The Gators rank near the bottom of college football in turnover margin in 2021 (121st). That said, they rank in the top 20 in college football in creating “havoc” (quarterback pressures, hurries, tackles for loss and sacks) and they will face a UCF offensive line that is pedestrian on a good day. The Knights rank 59th in the country in sacks allowed (6.4% of all snaps) and 69th in sacks and tackles for loss allowed.

Even without Carter and Bogle, Florida has Brenton Cox Jr., who finished the regular season with 8 sacks, along with Gervon Dexter, an explosive defensive tackle who feasted against the likes of Alabama and Tennessee this season. Senior hybrid Jeremiah Moon, who has 8 career sacks and 22 career tackles for loss, is also plenty capable of generating pressure.

Florida has done a nice job, as the numbers demonstrate, of generating consistent pressure in 2021. What hasn’t happened is turnovers. Sophomore safety Rashad Torrence II has 3 interceptions, but few other Gators have made plays on the back end, and most opponents stay away from Elam, easily the best player in Florida’s secondary.

To win Thursday, the Gators need takeaways on the back end of the defense, and that will mostly begin on the front end.