Georgia and Florida will meet for the 101st time on Saturday at the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party in Jacksonville, Florida.

As is custom, the game is packed with storylines.

No. 1 Georgia, the 2-time defending national champions, begins life without All-American Brock Bowers against the hated Gators. Bowers was injured in the Dawgs win over Vanderbilt on Oct. 14 and it is unknown when he might return. Georgia has the most talented roster in the sport. How will it rally and come together without the best player on that roster?

Florida, meanwhile, remains a program in transition under 2nd-year head coach Billy Napier. Florida is the youngest team in the Power 5 based on the percentage of freshmen and sophomores playing snaps, and with that youth comes growing pains, but the Gators are showing signs of life. They manhandled rival Tennessee in The Swamp in September and mounted a thrilling 4th-quarter comeback at a sold-out South Carolina 2 weeks ago to enter their bye week with a 5-2 record and momentum. What better way to measure growth than a date with the best team in the sport — who happens to be their most bitter rival?

For Kirby Smart, the Florida game always has extra meaning. Smart was 1-3 against the Gators as a terrific player at Georgia. He’s now an outstanding 5-2 against the Gators as a head coach, and he admitted this week to having a bit of a pep in his step during Florida week.

“I know what a special week this is and and what it means to our fans and players and me. The chance to play in an incredible stadium in Jacksonville. It’s just different. It’s special,” Smart told SDS.

These are staffs that respect one another deeply as well. Napier called Smart’s Georgia program “the gold standard in the sport” this week. Smart said it was a “matter of time” before Napier got it rolling at Florida, adding that he has “a lot of respect for Billy, as a football coach, a man, as a person.” They worked on staff together at Alabama and the mutual respect makes the rivalry all the more interesting in a game where both teams tend to have players from Florida and Georgia and familiarity is always a storyline.

Let’s discuss 3 matchups that will define the Cocktail Party.

Georgia’s north-south run game vs. Florida’s front 7

Georgia’s run game, for me, is the story in this game.

If Georgia runs the ball consistently, it’s hard to see a path to a win for Florida.

If Florida can slow the Georgia run game or at least make successful run plays uncommon, Florida opens up a narrow path to an upset (which would still require several other things to go right).

After being rendered one-dimensional in a narrow win at Auburn (the Brock Bowers game), the Dawgs have churned out 464 yards rushing and 4 rushing touchdowns in wins over No. 20 Kentucky and Vanderbilt, averaging 6.6 yards per attempt in the process. The bulk of Georgia’s successful runs this season are north-south runs, with Georgia’s success rate at 60% on such runs, as opposed to a modest 46% on perimeter runs on the edge.

The health of Daijun Edwards has elevated the Georgia run game, especially between the tackles.

Edwards missed the season’s first 2 games due to injury, but he’s averaged 5.64 yards on inside run concepts this season, per Stats Solutions. That’s well over a yard more than any other Georgia player, with Kendall Milton second at 4.25 yards per carry on inside runs. Edwards has averaged nearly 3 yards after contact on such runs (a team high), has a team low 23.1% stuff rate on inside runs, and has broken 20 tackles (the only Georgia running back with more than 10 broken tackles) on inside concepts. He’s Georgia’s best running back and the one best suited to attack the lone glaring weakness on Florida’s much improved defense.

A year after Patrick Toney’s outfit posted the worst marks for a Florida defense in total defense since the NYT began tracking the stat in 1981, Florida enters the Georgia game ranked 18th in total defense.  Florida’s success rate numbers are even better, ranking 14th nationally.  Success rate defense measures how many opposing plays gain less than 50% of the yards required to move the chains on 1st down. 70% of yards to gain on 2nd down, or 100% of the yards on 3rd or 4th down.

The one area that falters? North-south runs. Florida ranks 12th in the SEC in stopping inside runs, and Florida was walloped by Kentucky for its failure to do so, with the Wildcats blasting the Gators for 329 yards rushing, over 250 of which came on inside concepts. Yikes.

For Florida to compete Saturday, the weakness of its defense has to be up to the task. That’s easier said than done against a Georgia offensive line that should have a healthy Amarius Mims (he has not missed a practice since the Vanderbilt game) and rotates 10 linemen, including 2 who grade out, per PFF, as 2 of the top 20 linemen in the sport, guard Tate Ratledge and center Sedrick Van Pran. Even if Georgia’s other starting guard, Xavier Truss, is limited with an ankle injury, the Dawgs depth and talent up front could overwhelm Florida.

If that happens, it makes the absence of Brock Bowers largely irrelevant on Saturday.

Ricky Pearsall vs. Kamari Lassiter and Malaki Starks

Kirby Smart rightly identified a huge challenge in defending Florida’s senior receiver Ricky Pearsall, who ranks in the top 5 in the SEC in yards, receptions and percentages of targets caught in 2023.

“Pearsall is good. He’s a consistent, explosive playmaker,” Smart told the media this week. “He’s tough to defend, too. They move him around a lot. He plays the slot. He has done double moves. He’s been a vertical guy. He’s been doubled and gotten open plenty anyway. He makes a lot of plays and opens things up for other weapons, which they have now even though some have been injured.”

South Carolina and Tennessee tried doubling Pearsall, jamming him at the line of scrimmage with a corner or a linebacker, and throwing taller, bulkier corners at him. None of it worked. Plus, when he is well-covered, he makes spectacular catches, like the leaping one-hander in triple coverage against Charlotte or this body-bender against South Carolina.

Georgia, though, has Kamari Lassiter, who is having an All-American caliber season, along with the best safety in the sport in Malaki Starks. Pearsall was held in check a season ago by Kelee Ringo and Starks, who limited him to just 38 yards on 3 receptions. Lassiter might be better than Ringo a season ago, especially one one one. He’ll get the 33 snaps that Ringo got on Pearsall last season on Saturday. How he handles that assignment will tell us plenty about the outcome of the football game.

Princely Umanmielen vs. the moment and Carson Beck

Florida defensive end Princey Umanmielen has put together a terrific junior campaign. He’s generated 26 quarterback pressures (5th in the SEC) and registered 3 sacks. His other pass-rush numbers, especially in terms of his ability to win one on one battles against linemen, are magnificent.

Umanmielen’s productivity has landed him on multiple midseason All-American lists, including the reputable lists issued by PFF and the Senior Bowl. Umanmielen is a terrific pass rusher, with a PFF grade of 90.2 in that category, second in the SEC. He also lines up all over the place, on either side of the field, and is productive on either hash — a huge deal when preparing for him on film. What he hasn’t had in his career, at least to date, is the “breakout” game.

You know the one we’re talking about: the Will Anderson vs. LSU in 2020 game. The Nakobe Dean vs. Florida in 2021 game. The Harold Perkins Jr. vs. Alabama and a week later against Arkansas 2022 games. Florida needs that from Umanmielen, at some point down the stretch this year, to have a chance to upset 1 of the 4 ranked teams left on their schedule. Could it come Saturday?

Carson Beck is an asset for Georgia, not a liability. Let’s be clear about that when we discuss the Bowers injury. Beck has played his best football in the last 3 games as well, which you’d expect for a first year starter. Against Auburn, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt, Beck has thrown for 963 yards and 6 touchdowns. He’s completed 74% of his passes in that stretch. His only struggles? When he’s faced pressure– as he has tossed 3 interceptions under pressure, completed 23% less passes, and thrown other passes that are “interceptable”, per metrics, but have avoided that fate due to Brock Bowers or a stable of capable receivers or both.

 

The numbers and the eye test suggest that if Beck has time to throw consistently on Saturday, he’ll carve Florida up. He’s a huge arm talent who can make pinpoint passes like this one.

 

The Gators have a vastly improved secondary, but asking Florida (or any secondary, really) to cover Georgia for long stretches all day is a tall order. The Gators do give up some deep shots, and Beck ranks just 11th in the SEC in connecting on the long ball this year.

Beck needs to improve in that area. But the bigger throws Saturday will be intermediate ones under pressure. These are the “Brock Bowers” security blanket throws Beck made time and time again in the comeback win over Auburn, where Bowers caught all but 2 successful pass plays in the 4th quarter alone. If Florida can pressure Beck, who will need to choose other “security blanket options” Saturday, that challenge becomes interesting. If not … well, it could be a long afternoon for the Gators.