O'Gara: The 2 Kentucky stats I'll be thinking about all March

My brother and his wife moved from Muncie, Ind., to Lexington, Ky., in the summer of 2019. She works at UK and he’s in real estate, so they’re entrenched in the Lexington community. Naturally, Kentucky is their team. She grew up a fan because her mom bleeds blue. My brother, a Valparaiso grad, went all in and adopted his wife’s team.

A few weeks ago, we spent the weekend there. It was a lovely time because Lexington is great. I got to visit the football facility for a Brock Vandagriff story, we ate well (shoutout to Joe Bologna’s), we played with my daughter (their niece). and that Saturday night, we sat in his living room and watched UK completely control Auburn at Neville Arena.

I say all of that because even after arguably the biggest Kentucky win of the season during a “let’s freeze time” type of visit, my brother said to me, “Do you realize that UK has only won 1 NCAA Tournament game since we moved here?”

I knew it was bad, but that’s a stat that I admittedly forgot. No longer. It’ll be on my mind all March, even after Kentucky one-upped its biggest win of the season by beating Tennessee to close the regular season.

That prompted me to look up another stat that I now can’t shake heading into SEC Tournament week.

Since the 2020s started, UK has 1 SEC Tournament game victory. That’s it. One. It was the 2022 SEC Tournament against an 11th-seeded Vanderbilt team that was on its way to the NIT. Who could forget?

Let that sink in. In the 2010s, this was UK’s tournament. No, really.

2010 — Won championship
2011 — Won championship
2012 — Lost in championship
2013 — Lost in quarterfinals
2014 — Lost in championship
2015 — Won championship
2016 — Won championship
2017 — Won championship
2018 — Won championship
2019 — Lost in semifinals

That’s 6 of 10 years with a title. That’s 8 of 10 years reaching the title game, which means winning multiple games. So 80% of the SEC Tournaments in the 2010s included Kentucky winning multiple games and 0% of the SEC Tournaments in the 2020s included Kentucky winning multiple games.

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Kentucky fans know this. It’s why the sense of angst with John Calipari is justified, despite what some lazy national pundits might say about UK fans, who couldn’t care less about whether he gets along with AD Mitch Barnhart or if he speaks to the media more often than in a postgame setting. This is about the postseason.

To think that Kentucky is entering 2024 with 2 combined SEC Tournament/NCAA Tournament game victories in the 2020s is hard to fathom, but it’s all I can now think about in March.

Of course, one would push back on that by saying the 2020 Kentucky team would’ve changed that had COVID-19 not happened. That squad was the top seed in the SEC Tournament and it could’ve likely been a 2-seed in the NCAA Tournament. There was optimism for a deep run with SEC Player of the Year Immanuel Quickley and future NBA All-Star Tyrese Maxey. That squad had won 9 of its last 10 games and did exactly what young Calipari-coached teams were known for throughout the 2010s. That is, navigate some early-season struggles — don’t forget about that Evansville loss — and right the ship by March.

Then again, the 2022 squad was a 2-seed and St. Peter’s happened. The 2023 squad started as the No. 4 team in America with returning National College player of the year Oscar Tshiebwe and a Round of 32 exit happened after seemingly righting the ship late in the regular season.

(My brother and sister-in-law had already bought tickets to make the 3-hour drive for the Round of 32 matchup in Indianapolis for that weekend thinking, like the rest of us, that there was no possible way UK would get upset. Needless to say, the second-hand ticket market got a couple of additions after that played out.)

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Also, how much did that canceled postseason really change the 2020s for Kentucky? Maybe Calipari tweaked things to acquire more outside shooting, but it’s not like the talent level fell off. A No. 1 class, a No. 2 class, a No. 6 class (gasp) and a No. 1 class … yeah. Nobody is feeling sorry for the Cats. In a twisted way, that’s why there might be some outside pushback on the fan sentiment that Calipari has worn out his welcome.

Here’s the deal: There are certain programs in which a postseason that ends before the second weekend is a failure. It’s not just a blue-blood thing (Indiana only has 4 Sweet 16 trips in the 21st century). When you have a decade like Kentucky had and then see a significant postseason drop-off without undergoing a coaching change, yes, there’s reasonable skepticism about the person in charge.

The question is if this UK team can change that. It’s a legitimate question, even on the heels of that monumental win at Tennessee, wherein the Cats played perhaps their best all-around game of the season. Kentucky is playing its best basketball of the season, especially on the defensive side with DJ Wagner back. That’ll be the biggest in-game question for this team throughout March, however long that lasts.

In the 2020s, Kentucky’s latest March run lasted until March 19. Simply by making the NCAA Tournament and not playing a Round of 64 game until at least March 21, the Cats have technically already clinched their latest March run of the 2020s decade.

But that’s not what this is about, nor is it just about shooting better than 31% from 3-point range in an SEC Tournament/NCAA Tournament game for the second time in the 2020s (the aforementioned 2022 SEC Tournament win vs. Vandy was the lone such occurrence).

This year’s March run, for many, will be the last straw for whether Calipari can still get the program back to the 2010s levels of success. UK fans can get over an early SEC Tournament exit if it’s followed up with an Elite 8 appearance. What they can’t get over is yet another opening weekend exit. Not with this team.

Whether UK reaches that point for the first time in the 2020s or not, rest assured that the noise from the Bluegrass State will be heard loud and clear.

A deafening groan or exhale awaits.