The Missouri Tigers are entering the 2022 season as a bit of an afterthought in the SEC. Most preseason bowl projections have 12 SEC teams making it to postseason play, with Mizzou and Vanderbilt as the teams left out.

But, the Tigers went 6-6 last regular season, and there’s reason for optimism in Columbia. Of course, there are also some concerns that need to be addressed to keep things from spiraling out of control in a hurry.

So, let’s take a look at 5 dream scenarios for coach Eli Drinkwitz’s squad and 5 scenarios that would be utterly disastrous for the Tigers:

5 dream scenarios

1. Luther Burden is as advertised

The 5-star freshman receiver arrives in Columbia with more hype than any Mizzou recruit since fellow 5-star WR Dorial Green-Beckham. What did DGB do as a freshman, you ask? Well, he put up 28 catches for 395 yards and 5 touchdowns. His breakout year (59 catches, 883 yards and 12 scores) didn’t come until 2013, when he was a sophomore.

Can Burden have a more immediate impact on Mizzou’s offense and surpass DGB’s freshman numbers? That’ll likely depend on the Tigers’ newly minted QB1, Brady Cook. Speaking of Cook…

2. Brady Cook develops into a middle-of-the-pack SEC starting QB

That’s a solid goal for Cook in Year 1 as the Tigers’ starting quarterback. He doesn’t need to be elite. He just needs to be decent. He has the ability to use his legs to extend plays and we know he’s a solid passer. And, in 2022, he’ll have plenty of weapons around him.

In addition to the aforementioned Burden, the Tigers’ receiving corps includes Mookie Cooper, the Ohio State transfer who was slowed by injuries last year. A healthy season from Cooper would be huge for Cook and the Tigers. Mizzou also has Dominic Lovett, Tauskie Dove and Barrett Banister in its receiving corps. Those are 5 SEC-caliber receivers at Cook’s disposal.

If he can just get the ball in the hands of his playmakers, avoid too many turnovers and keep the chains moving, it’s not unreasonable to think he could finish 2022 as the 8th- or 9th-best SEC quarterback.

3. The defense takes a big step forward, particularly against the run

Look, the secondary on this year’s team should be a strength. CBs Kris Abrams-Draine and Ennis Rakestraw Jr. are a solid duo. Safety Martez Manuel is a team leader and a versatile do-it-all player. Fellow safeties Joseph Charleston (a Clemson transfer) and Jaylon Carlies can hold their own.

But, the run defense was atrocious last year, finishing 124th out of 130 FBS teams by allowing 227.9 yards per game to opposing rushers. That was worse than every Power 5 team but Stanford and Kansas.

Drinkwitz beefed up the interior of the defense through the portal, adding Jayden Jernigan from Oklahoma State and Josh Landry from Baylor to the defensive tackle rotation. If the Tigers can cut their rushing yards allowed to around 150 or fewer per game, they’ll be in great shape.

4. The veteran offensive line proves it was overlooked in a big way

Javon Foster, Mizzou’s starting left tackle, is perhaps the most underrated player in the entire SEC. Fortunately, some NFL scouts are starting to catch on to his consistency and solid play, but the average SEC fan wouldn’t be able to name him.

Xavier Delgado, Connor Wood and Zeke Powell round out a talented unit that only has to replace former Rutgers transfer Michael Maietti at center. This group blocked for Tyler Badie last year, and all he did was set a school record for rushing yards while leading the SEC in that category. Cook and whoever wins the starting running back job will be well-protected this fall.

5. Tigers finish the regular season 8-4

OK, so here’s where we need to be realistic. Even in a dream scenario, the Tigers aren’t going undefeated this year. They’re probably not even going to win 10 games. But, going 8-4 with a chance to pick up win No. 9 in a solid bowl game? That would be a huge stepping stone for Drinkwitz.

That would mean the additions through the transfer portal paid off immediately. That would mean Brady Cook was the right choice. That would mean several freshmen, not just Burden, contributed to the success of the team. And that would mean that Blake Baker’s defense wasn’t a complete disaster like Steve Wilks’ was to start last year.

At the end of the day, going 8-4 with a win over rival Arkansas to cap off the season (and perhaps wins over Kentucky, South Carolina and Florida, too) would be an excellent 2022 goal for this Mizzou squad.

5 disaster scenarios

1. A star running back doesn’t emerge

The Tigers lost Tyler Badie to the NFL this offseason after he set the school’s single-season record for rushing yards. But, they brought in Nathaniel Peat, a Columbia native, to try to fill that role.

Peat led the Cardinal with 404 rushing yards last season. Yes, that’s more than 1,000 fewer yards than Badie had, but Peat certainly has potential. But, Peat has been dealing with issues this fall camp. So far, DII transfer Cody Schrader has been the standout:

Schrader had a great year in 2021, compiling 2,074 rushing yards with 24 touchdowns. Peat will likely have the first shot at the top spot if he’s healthy come Week 1, but if he isn’t, things could go south in a hurry for the Mizzou running game.

2. The freshmen aren’t ready to play

Mizzou is bringing in the best recruiting class in school history. There are major expectations for Luther Burden, of course, but the Tigers need some 4-star signees to play well. Those guys are: CB Marcus Scott II, LB Xavier Simmons, QB Sam Horn, DL Marquis Gracial, edge DJ Wesolak, RB Tavorus Jones, S Isaac Thomson and DB Ja’Marion Wayne.

If 3-4 of those guys turn into contributors? Great. If they don’t? The Tigers will struggle. Those guys are going to need to work their way into the rotation this fall if Mizzou is going to be bowl eligible or better.

If this top recruiting class doesn’t look good, that won’t be great for Drinkwitz and company.

3. The red-zone scoring % falls

Mizzou actually fared really well in the red zone in 2021. The Tigers scored points on 90% of their 40 red-zone drives. That was good for No. 2 in the SEC. Those 36 scores consisted of 26 touchdowns and 10 field goals.

But, that came from having star RB Tyler Badie and kicker Harrison Mevis. Mevis is still around in 2021, but the Tigers relied heavily on handing Badie the ball around the goal line. Just like they relied heavily on handing the ball to Larry Rountree III in 2020.

Mevis should be even better in 2022. I have no worries about that. But, if the running game can’t put the ball in the end zone, it’ll be devastating for the Mizzou offense that hasn’t had the best goal-line passing game in recent years. We’ll see if Cook can fix that.

4. The lack of depth is exposed

We don’t generally like to mention injuries in pieces like this, as every team deals with guys getting banged up during the year. But, the Tigers are particularly susceptible to any potential injury bug.

Other than the defensive tackle position and the receiving corps, there is not a lot of depth on this squad. If any of the starting linebackers get banged up, that would spell disaster. Ditto with the offensive linemen. Those units are fine when everyone’s healthy, but Drinkwitz hasn’t been able to fill out the depth chart in those spots thus far.

5. The Tigers finish with a losing record

I know what you’re thinking – obviously having a losing record is bad. Yes. But, it’s especially troublesome for a team with so many important freshmen like this year’s Mizzou squad.

That’s because, if the Tigers don’t qualify for a bowl game, they lose out on a couple of extra weeks of practice ahead of that bowl game. That’s a time when young players can really take a big step forward. Considering Mizzou just brought in its best-rated class in school history, those young Tigers are going to need all the work they can get so they’ll be ready to be major contributors starting in 2023.