SDS Roundtable: Missouri's over/under is 5.5 wins. How many games will the Tigers win in 2020?
Each SDS roundtable discussion involves the SDS staff providing individual answers and comments to questions covering a wide range of sports and non-sports topics. In this discussion, we ask the question: Missouri has a new coach, a new offense and another new quarterback. The over/under win projection has the Tigers falling short of a bowl. How many games will the Tigers win in 2020?
A bit of background …
Missouri has hit the reset button. Eli Drinkwitz is 1 of 4 new head coaches in the SEC and, at 37, he’s the youngest coach in the conference. Drinkwitz has an offensive background and drew praise for his work with quarterbacks at Boise State and NC State. One of his first gigs was working on Gus Malzahn’s staff at Arkansas State. So he has been building toward this. Is he ready? We’ll soon find out. Since winning back-to-back SEC East titles in 2013 and 2014, the Tigers are 4 games under .500.
They haven’t finished a season ranked since 2014. They haven’t won a bowl game since 2014. They haven’t had a winning year in the SEC since 2014. Are the Tigers a bowl team in 2020? The over/under win projection of 5.5 speaks to how close it will be.
Connor O’Gara, Senior national columnist
Under.
Mizzou is a total mystery. Even though Eli Drinkwitz was able to retain some of the staff from the previous regime, I still don’t know what to expect from this offense. It’ll be a new starting quarterback running an entirely different offense than what we saw with Derek Dooley. I like the edition of Damon Hazelton as a new go-to receiver, but we don’t even know for sure that he’ll be eligible yet. Fitting.
I also think this defense will inevitably take a step back without Barry Odom. A top-20 unit lost a lot of talent and could be in for a rough Year 1. There are really only 4 automatic wins on that schedule with Central Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Eastern Michigan and Louisiana. That’s the good news. The bad news is I can’t trust Mizzou to go on the road to beat BYU, nor can I assume that they’ll be able to handle a veteran Kentucky team coming off an 8-win season.
And no, I can’t assume Mizzou will automatically roll over Arkansas. Both have first-year coaches, and both have a massive uphill battle to establish their respective cultures with these COVID-19 restrictions.
This could very much be a transition year for the Tigers. If you’re a Mizzou fan, celebrate 6 wins like it’s the Super Bowl.
Michael Bratton, News editor
I don’t have a ton to base this pick on because I know nothing about Shawn Robinson or Eli Drinkwitz’s offense, but I tend to lean toward the over with Mizzou.
Unlike the other first-year head coaches in the league, Missouri has retained key coaches on one side of the ball and that could prove to be incredibly valuable now that spring football was lost. If Missouri’s defense continues to its part, even with Barry Odom gone to Arkansas, the Tigers could surprise some people in 2020.
The more I learn of Drinkwitz, the more I like his hire. His staff has several SEC ties and has been a part of some very successful seasons. I will be interested to see how long Drinkwitz keeps his offensive coordinator duties, though, as most coaches surrender that role once they realize how demanding it can be to do two jobs on game day.
For now, Drinkwitz has the confidence in himself to get it done as Missouri’s OC and that could prove to be right decision as he enters his first season as an SEC head coach. I’ll pick Mizzou to make a bowl game this season.
Neil Blackmon, Florida columnist
Under.
I’m not sold on the Drinkwitz hire, though I understand why Missouri had to think outside the box and take a chance on a rising young coach. I just worry that we don’t know enough about Drinkwitz after 1 year at Applachian State to be certain he’s the dude.
There’s also the matter of an open quarterback competition and the fact the Tigers have to replace the bulk of the meager offensive production they had a season ago. Keeping Ryan Walters on as defensive coordinator will help ease the transition for Drinkwitz, but where is the 6th win on that schedule — especially if the Tigers lose at BYU — which seems likely?
Adam Spencer, Newsletter editor
I am a big fan of what new coach Eliah Drinkwitz is doing so far. He has landed some commits from St. Louis, which is a must for a Mizzou coach, and he seems to be popular with the players. Not having spring practices hurt the Tigers (as well as many other teams), as Drinkwitz hasn’t been able to install his offense on the field and hasn’t been able to get likely starting QB Shawn Robinson up to speed.
However, I still think 5.5 wins is low for the Tigers. I count at least 6 wins on the schedule — all 4 nonconference games, vs. Vanderbilt and vs. Arkansas in Kansas City. Then, a homecoming game against Kentucky and a trip to South Carolina are both very winnable, too. This could be an 8-win team.
Obviously, as a Mizzou graduate, I understand that the Tigers will have at least 1 utterly inexplicable loss, but even when you account for that, I think this team finishes with 6 or 7 wins. LB Nick Bolton is a potential first-round pick and RB Larry Rountree III is a sturdy, reliable back. If Robinson can play slightly better than Kelly Bryant, Drinkwitz’s first year in Columbia should be a success.
Chris Wright, Executive editor
I’ll say this: Missouri certainly has the easiest schedule in the conference and one of the easiest among Power 5 teams in the country.
It doesn’t get much more favorable than playing Vandy and Arkansas every year. The rotational crossover this year is at rebuilding Mississippi State. The nonconference slate doesn’t include another Power 5 program (though BYU is a decent independent).
If Georgia or Florida or LSU or Alabama (or Clemson) had this schedule, critics would lose their mind. “They ain’t played nobody, Paaaaawl!” If Tennessee had this schedule, we’d be talking about the Vols as a possible 10-2 dark-horse in the East.
There most definitely are 8 winnable games on the schedule: Question is, is this Missouri team capable of finding them?
I don’t see it.
Can they win 6? If they can’t, against this slate, that doesn’t bode very well for Drinkwitz.
PREVIOUSLY
- LSU’s over/under is 9.5 wins. How many games will Tigers win?
- Alabama’s over/under is 10.5 wins. How many games will Tide win?
- Auburn’s over/under is 8.5 wins. How many games will Tigers win?
- Texas A&M’s over/under is 9.5 wins. How many games will Aggies win?
- Who wins more games in 2020: Ole Miss or Mississippi State?
- Florida’s over/under is 9.5 wins. How many games will Gators win?
- Georgia’s over/under is 10.5 wins. How many games will Dawgs win?
- Tennessee’s over/under is 7.5 wins. How many games will Vols win?
- Kentucky’s over/under is 6.5 wins. How many games will Cats win?
I’m not sold on Robinson as a QB. I think Drinkiwitz is a good coach, not a great one, but he will turn them around. Not this season though. I dont think they win at BYU and i think this over-under revolves around if they beat SC. They wont beat UGA, UF, Miss St, UK, UT, or BYU IMO, although they will probably play well against most of those. I dont even know if they can beat Louisiana, who I think will be better than most of the Sun Belt. So that’s four, with tossups vs SC, UL, and BYU. They have to win 2, and idk if they do. I would stay away from this one.
Good analysis. I don’t think they beat BYU and that UL gm is gonna be tougher than many think. I think 6 is possible but I wouldn’t bet on it. I say 5 wins. But if I’m a Mizzou fan looking at this soft sked with Tiger-shaped lenses, I could easily see 6 or 7 wins.
Most recently Missouri-Pinkel beat BYU on a neutral field in one of his worst years, his last. The game wasn’t a blow-out but BYU never made anybody think they were going to pull it out either. L.Lafay. has about an even split with Troy for example over the past decade. Ok let’s see Missouri vs. Troy, Missouri has scored 152 points against Troy in 4 games, and the 2019 game had Missouri sending starters to the bench early before. Missouri is 33rd in all time wins, L.Lay. 89th compiled by Missouri’s schedule having been in the Big 8/12 and SEC. So while I’m sure UL-L will play some good football. Few people outside of Louisiana will be betting the house on this win for UL-L.
If Drinkwitz was able to beat North Carolina and South Carolina last year with 2* and 3* players. He was only there for one year and was the head coach. Got no or little help when he took over. He knows how to run the offense and he is a great head coach. Even some South Carolina fans from SEC Rant was upset that Missouri got him and South Carolina didn’t fired Muschamp to get him. He is the steal of all hiring of HC this past year!
Also why did AD fired Barry Odom if he could win 6 or more this coming year and Drinkwitz cannot win more than 6? Drinkwitz is going to surprise many people!
With a spring practice and regular off season, I could see Mizzou getting to 6 or 7 wins. But since Drink has limited experience as a head coach and is in his first year of rebuilding Mizzou while installing a new offense with a new QB, and all this during a quarantine leaves me to think 5 wins sounds about right with 4 wins a real possibility. Even a veteran SEC coach would need a few seasons to turn Mizzou around.
Really? If he can beat South Carolina and North Carolina and Georgia couldn’t get a win against South Carolina! You are funny!
Right, really that score against South Carolina compared to Missouri’s last year, should be making Missouri vs Georgia “no sure thing”.
“Can they win 6? If they can’t, against this slate, that doesn’t bode very well for Drinkwitz.”
I think new coaches get a pass this year. Not being able to even get together for spring practice or the spring game is crippling. Everyone at Alabama, LSU, UGA, etc, knows the system and the coaches know their players. The 4 new coaches will have to do everything on the fly.
It’s just not fair to hold them as accountable as you would Jeremy Pruitt (for example) if he were to only win 5 games this year.
The schedule is easy, and I still expect at minimum 4 wins, but I’m going into this year thinking Drink gets a mulligan.
yeah I agree all the new coaches will get a mulligan this season. I would think Drink will only try to install some of his offense. with the lack of spring and summer why not wait until next spring to implement it all the way and try to keep some of the familiar parts in so they have a better chance to win a few. Its very difficult to predict the W/L for Mizzou, Ole Miss and MSU. Just a lot to overcome for new coaching staffs, philosophies… I would probably lean under but depending on how he approaches this very unique season it wouldn’t surprise me to see them hit the over.
I absolutely agree that new coaches should get a mulligan this season
100 percent agree that new coaches get a mulligan. I hope that the fanbases are patient enough to give them out.
Expectations need to be set low. That being said I really don’t understand why it seems like Mizzou is being treated like the bottom of the barrel of the new regime teams. If anything I feel all of the lines for these teams should be question marks.
its probably because ole miss and msu have experienced coaches. I forgot about Arkansas in my previous post but they are in the same boat as mizzou and the others. Pittman may get a slight edge over drink just due to his vast years of coaching and who he surrounded himself with.
When you say experienced, do you mean Kiffin and Leach have had numerous seasons where they got their sense of humor reconfigured?
The Mississippi schools have better rosters and experienced head coaches who already know how to run a program. While I’m excited about Drink’s potential, he’s at a disadvantage.
Is Vandy so bad this year that even Mizzou considers that game an “automatic win”? Poor Vandy.
Mizzou is always a gritty team, but I’d either stay away from this one or take the under. I think UK and UT (and probably SC) are clearly better than them this year.
At first I wasn’t feeling very confident in Missouri’s chances of getting to six wins, but the schedule definitely creates that opportunity.
Games they should win
Eastern Michigan
Lafayette
Central Arkansas
Vanderbilt
Arkansas (this game being at the very end of the year motivation is likely a huge part of who wins this one)
Games they will be big underdogs
Georgia
Florida
In my mind they just need to get one of the following games:
BYU
South Carolina
Kentucky
Tennessee
Mississippi State
(I think BYU and South Carolina are the best chances)
I think that fans should be expecting 6 wins.
I think 5 wins. But if I’m a Mizzou fan, I’m expecting 6 or 7 looking at the schedule and being an optimist. Hope we get to find out.
Yep. Another way to phrase those would be “should be wins”, “probably losses”, and “toss-up”. If things go chalk with should be wins and probably losses, then with that many toss-ups you’re looking at 6-8 wins as a realistic range. The only problem is you have several more chances to screw up a “should be wins” game than steal one of only two from “probably losses”. Should be wins might not go chalk in other words and that could be a problem.
Another problem they could run into is if one or more of the toss-up teams actually surprise and are a lot better than anyone was expecting. They jump into probably losses category by the time they actually play. This happened with Tennessee last year by playing them in late November instead of getting them early October. Both teams were playing much differently at that time.
Missouri is never an underdog against Florida. In my mind they win all of your last list but I never pick winners. That’s a game week/day product.
I think that’s about right for a over/under. More than likely they get to 6 but I won’t guarantee it. And does anyone think Chris Wright even understood the question?
I agree with everything, including Chris’ confusion. Obviously 6 wins would extend our season & allow for added practises. I think the floor is 6 wins.
Yea, his take was a bit confusing. He started by saying how difficult/doubtful it would be for Mizzou to get 6 wins.
Then concluded by saying if they don’t get 6 they may have hired the wrong coach?? He took the over AND under! Lol
5.
I’m going under at 4-8.
Missouri has a more talented roster than Vanderbilt and the game is in Columbia, so I think they can get past Vandy. But it’s by no means an automatic win and if they don’t, it looks like 3-9 to me. Mississippi State has significantly more talent than Mizzou, a good quarterback and the game is in Starkville.
Mizzou’s defense really missed Cale Garrett after he got hurt last season and he was a senior. I think their defense will be the weakest unit on the field in the games they aren’t favored in next season, which will stress the ability of Drinkwitz’ offense to keep up.
Even if we accept that Drinkwitz is a good coach, I think it’s going to take him three years to become competitive with the upper half of the East, and even that’s going to be a challenge because the upper half of the East is getting better every year.
No question losing one of the conferences best defensive players is going to hurt and it did, but it also coincided with the start of conference play. And if you look at that point forward the big downward spiral was offensively much more so than defensively. The defense still performed ok, and Bolton really emerged after Garrett went down. I’m not at all expecting the Defense to be the biggest question mark this coming season, it easily going to be the offense imo.
Under
I don’t think Missouri will be a very good team, but it would be embarrassing with that schedule if they don’t get six wins. I think they will.
Under… they might not get past Eastern Michigan
You might be right.
you might be watching the Michigan fantasy channel too much
Until we really see what we have at quarterback, it is hard to say how our offense will perform. If he turns out to be as big a treat to run as he is to pass, that can make up for a little bit of lack of preparation due to Covid 19. Being a fan and looking at the schedule, I see 6 or 7 wins, but I also see a chance to fall under 6 wins. Too many unknowns, but if I had to bet, I think we end up bang on at 6 wins.
Clearly Bazelak probably wouldn’t have been able to compete coming off surgery in the spring, but I wonder if this pandemic situation is actually going to work in his favor to compete with Robinson for the starting job? I mean I still think Robinson is the front runner but I just kind of wonder if this delay is going to keep Drinkwitz from naming a starter and having a competition from the get go when ever that is.
I think he’ll pull a Saban and not name a starter until just before game 1.
Yep, I feel that’s highly possible as well.
He won’t name a starter because it will never be decided. In games where he needs a dual-threat Bazelak is not going to start. In games where he needs a quarterback with quick accurate deliveries, Robinson will be lucky to get in the game. And there’s more, but just take the above to the bank to start your “understanding NewZou 2020 account.
Love the predicable calls from Blackmon & Spencer. Blackmon isn’t sold on anything but UF will be awesome and Spencer just gave his normal homer analysis.
100%
And Chris Wright calling out the schedule
Missouri hasn’t beaten Kentucky since 2014. This will be the best Kentucky team in recent memory while this Missouri team will have the most question marks of any in recent memory. Sorry Adam, I’m not saying Mizzou can’t win, but I don’t think it’s very winnable either.
Well, Missouri has been riding the Odom merry-go-round pony since 2014 and if you can watches replays, you know Missouri beat Kentucky in 2018.
I’m going with the 5.5. lol. That’s how certain I am. I do think Drink will do very well, but not this year with the virus thing, AND being new — too much.
New coaches, new QB. Shortened time to prepare for the season. At this point, it’d be hard to bet against more than 4 wins if that.
I saw the headline and said to myself: “Definitely under”. But then I see that cupcake schedule and 6 or 7 is possible.
I got to thinking today at what could go wrong for teams this season.
1. More injuries due to cancellation of Spring Practices
2. Just before a game your highly favored opponent loses several players to testing positive for Coronavirus and are quarantined. And if they all hang out together, like OL or WR groups, this could be devastating and set your opponent up for a major upset. Or this could happen to your team as well.
3. Possibility of home field advantage being lost due to mandated empty stadiums or 50% capacity due to social distancing.
4. Some P5 conferences, notably Pac14, have mentioned only playing conference games this season. This could mean one less game to some teams due to losing an OOC game (AL vs USC is in week 1 for example).
Mizzou is a tough team to figure out. For now I’ll go under
I hope I’m wrong, but I’d hammer the under here if I wasn’t a Missouri fan. We know very little about what Drinkwitz looks like in a situation that isn’t ready-made, we know very little about our quarterback production, we lost a ton from an already bad offense, and we missed spring ball with an experienced coach and roster.
If Missouri wins 5 games I’ll be ecstatic. If they win 6 I’ll be stunned.
Agreed.
Many are going to be in for a huge surprise and Missouri will win more than 6 games!
What went wrong last year for Barry Odom? He made bone headed mistakes once again and losses 2 games that he should have won. Also the offense was bad! Who fault? Barry Odom and the OC and the quarterback Bryant! Now you replacing all the offensive coaches and all of them are upgrades and the HC is also an upgrade and he is going to be the one to install the offense and run it. I am not sure who will be calling the places but it is going to be a lot better and better than what Miss St. is running with no running game and justy about all will be air raid attack. He has a reputation for ignoring the defense and not getting a good running attack to make it a more balanced game. Drinkwitz won over South Carolina! and North Carolina with lesser players! Come on! Can’t you see this clearly?! I can. He is quick learner and teaches very well. How did he manage to get to 12-1 with no experience?!
Six to seven wins. C. Ark, EMU and ULL are almost definite wins and Vanderbilt and Arkansas should be. That gives us 5 wins (hopefully). Florida and Georgia are almost definite losses and Tennessee is a probable loss.
A bowl game hinges on what I consider four tossups: BYU, USC, Kentucky and MSU; unfortunately three of them are on the road. If they win 2 of the 4 that will mean seven wins, which would be a successful debut for Drinkwitz.
Under, but just barely.
1st year HC slump but I think he’s a good hire going by his App State results and look forward to seeing where he takes Mizzou.
Would you like to have him as your head coach if Muschamp was fired last year? I would like your respond since some Carolina fans was upset that missouri got him and South Carolina wouldn’t fired Muschamp but some fans really wanted him.
I would take the drunken redneck down the street as my head coach over Muschamp.
At least he would be fun to watch.
I have not heard a single person say USC should have hired Drinkwitz, and I live in the Columbia area. We went that route once with Sparky Woods and it was a trainwreck.
Nothing against mozzou until you play Ar. But I see 2 definite wins, Central A and and maybe E Michigan. Every other game is gona be tough for mizzou. I take the under all day long.
First off the SEC East will spank the SEC West by a convincing number of cross-over contests this year. That’s the shocker-that shouldn’t be a shocker, for a living in the past fans. And Missouri will once again sweep the west.
Not every winning team has to have a Heisman quarterback and Missouri has a quarterback-roster that can do the winning things (not the 1st round draft things, so we don’t care)
Sorry writer-group think boys, but Missouri’s DC is not a world beater, but Drinkwitz is a top flight OC, so you have that backwards. Still Missouri’s defense will not get them beat in any game in the regular season. And their offense has the fundamental pieces, so stop looking at Larry Rountree through Dooley glasses.
Finally, the reasons Missouri lost games under Odom were over-all stinky coaching, I mean terrible all-around head coaching, poor image of what it takes to make a program work, hiring cup-cakes to help the head coach not look like such a cup-cake. This coach is coaching in the SEC West now boys, get your hearts out of your throats.
5
Wow, it’s amazing how ever single response, both pro and neg Tiger, completely missed the point.
If we wear that black jersey with those block M helmets like in this article, we will clean up, 10 wins guaranteed.
The block M was great in it’s day. But the oval Tiger is a new age football masterpiece.
the oval is already old news in college football, uga fla etc, the classic M is the only way to go.
I see Lou, BYU and vandy as close wins. Not sure wins. Kentucky keeps its edge one more year and UT advances past us and more. But state flounders. And we continue to beat the ‘backs in oval ball to balance their dominance in roundball. Florida is not so good that we can’t pull off another ridiculous upset. Especially since ut and Kentucky will be nipping at their heels. This should be Kentucky last hurrah before landing back near the bottom of the East which is only right. And tennesee will ebb and flow for a while. Rising and falling without reason or rhyme. 6 wins will be tough but 7 is not impossible.nor nor is 4.
If Mizzou doesn’t flush opposing quarterbacks with some consistency and get sacks I think 6 wins is wishful thinking. And the DE depth is pitiful. With Swinson returning and the other TEs it’s time to ask Parker to return to DE. He is as good as we got and I don’t see anyone on this roster with the motor the skill the speed to do the position justice. If Chris Turner is still a starter at DE kiss 6 wins goodbye.