Who’s Hot, Who’s Not? Taking the temperature of the 12 SEC teams entering the NCAA Tournament
By Andrew Olson
Published:
The NCAA Tournament has arrived! For 64 teams, it’s a new season where previous records no longer matter. Everyone is trying to avoid 2 losses this weekend to advance to a best-of-3 Super Regional and play for a spot in the College World Series.
The SEC has been college baseball’s most dominant conference, with members collecting the past 6 national championships.
Think the SEC makes it 7 in a row? Check out our guide to where Kalshi is legal to make a prediction today!
This year, the SEC has 12 teams in the field of 64. With Regionals starting Friday, we look at who’s hot and who’s not going into the tournament.
Who’s hot?
These are the teams on a tear entering the opening round:
Georgia (No. 3 national seed, Athens Regional host)
- Last 10 games: 9-1
- Last series: 2-1 at Auburn
- SEC Tournament: 3-0, champions (W-Mississippi State, Florida, Arkansas)
Georgia (46-12) enters the NCAA Tournament as one of the hottest teams in the land. The Bulldogs have won 9 of their last 10, with the only loss being on the road at Auburn, the tourney’s No. 4 national seed.
UGA only lost one weekend series all year, when Florida took 2-of-3 in Athens. Wes Johnson’s team, though, got sweet revenge with a thrilling comeback win over the Gators in the SEC Tournament semifinals.
It’s hard to find any reason to doubt the Dawgs right now.
Florida (No. 8 national seed, Gainesville Regional host)
- Last 10 games: 8-2
- Last series: 3-0 at LSU
- SEC Tournament: 2-1 (W-Vanderbilt, Alabama; L-Georgia)
Florida (39-19) had to get hot to earn that top-8 national seed and control whether there’s a Gainesville Super Regional next week or not. The Gators finished the regular season by winning their final 3 series, so it’s been over a month since they last lost 2 games during a weekend.
Going up 6-0 on Georgia in Hoover and falling 8-7 is rough, but that was a quirky game. The Gators lost their starting pitcher early in the game due to injury, and then the weather disrupted play. It should be easy for Kevin O’Sullivan’s squad to shake off the loss and get back to what’s been working.
Arkansas (Lawrence Regional 2-seed, hosted by No. 15 Kansas)
- Last 10 games: 7-3
- Last series: 2-1 at Kentucky
- SEC Tournament: 3-1 (W-Tennessee, Texas, Auburn; L-Georgia)
Arkansas (39-20) made a strong case to host this weekend, but the Razorbacks are instead off to Kansas as the 2-seed of the Lawrence Regional.
The good news is the Hogs don’t have to worry about Georgia. After a 26-14 loss to Georgia on April 18, Arkansas won its next 4 SEC series to finish 17-13 in conference play. Then it went to Hoover and knocked off fellow NCAA Tournament team Tennessee, No. 6 national seed Texas and No. 4 national seed Auburn.
Georgia ended Arkansas’s tournament run in the championship game by the score of 11-1. But make no mistake, these Hogs are hot right now.
Tennessee (Chapel Hill Regional 2-seed, hosted by No. 5 North Carolina)
- Last 10 games: 7-3
- Last series: 2-1 at Oklahoma
- SEC Tournament: 1-1 (W-South Carolina; L-Arkansas)
Tennessee (38-20) didn’t always look like a tournament team. The Volunteers, though, have put it together at the right time.
For all intents and purposes, Josh Elander’s team punched its tournament ticket by taking the first 2 games of the Texas series in Knoxville. The Vols then took the first 2 from Oklahoma, another tournament team, on the road (though played in Oklahoma City instead of Norman).
UT was just 1-1 in the SEC Tournament, but the Vols should feel confident with recent wins over a top-8 national seed (Texas) and on the road (Oklahoma).
Alabama (No. 7 national seed, Tuscaloosa Regional host)
- Last 10 games: 7-3
- Last series: 2-1 vs. Ole Miss
- SEC Tournament: 0-1 (L-Florida)
Alabama (37-19) was one of the hardest teams to label in this preview. The Crimson Tide last won a baseball game on May 16. They played one game over a week ago and got walloped 13-3 by Florida. As we’ll get to later, a couple top teams got bumped from the “hot” group for similar reasons, but Alabama avoided that fate.
UA qualifies for “hot” thanks to its spectacular regular-season finish. The Crimson Tide notched back-to-back sweeps of Vanderbilt and South Carolina before winning the Ole Miss series. Going 8-1 over the last 9 regular-season SEC games qualifies a team for hot, even if it has been a while since it won.
Auburn (No. 4 national seed, Auburn Regional host)
- Last 10 games: 5-5
- Last series: 1-2 vs. Georgia
- SEC Tournament: 2-1 (W-LSU, Texas A&M; L-Arkansas)
Auburn (38-19) doesn’t have a particularly hot last-10 mark at 5-5, but the last-4 mark of 3-1 puts the Tigers in this category, especially when those recent wins include run-ruling Georgia and shutting out Texas A&M.
Losing 2-of-3 to Georgia stings, but AU vs. UGA may well be the College World Series best-of-3 finals considering the way these teams are playing. Before the Bulldogs came in and won 2 on The Plains, Auburn had not lost a conference series since March.
Winning the Georgia series finale 14-4 and defeating A&M 7-0 in Hoover qualifies any team for “hot” heading into the NCAA Tournament.
Who’s not?
These teams need to turn it around:
Mississippi State (No. 14 overall seed, Starkville Regional host)
- Last 10 games: 4-6
- Last series: 1-2 at Texas A&M
- SEC Tournament: 1-1 (W-Mizzou; L-Georgia)
Mississippi State (40-17) is getting to host this weekend, but the Diamond Dawgs aren’t entering the tournament playing their best.
MSU secured the No. 14 national seed by winning 40 games with the No. 13 RPI. The Bulldogs, though, have not won a series since a late April sweep of LSU, posting a 3-6 record against Texas, Auburn and Texas A&M.
On the bright side, Mississippi State played solid in Hoover, beating Mizzou in a blowout and dropping a close one to Georgia. The Starkville Regional field doesn’t look to pose SEC-level challenges for MSU.
Ole Miss (Lincoln Regional 2-seed, hosted by No. 13 overall seed Nebraska)
- Last 10 games: 5-5
- Last series: 1-2 at Alabama
- SEC Tournament: 0-1 (L-Mizzou)
Ole Miss (36-21) was in the hosting conversation with the No. 16 RPI, but the Rebels couldn’t stick the landing. The 5-5 mark in the last 10 is not nearly as concerning as the 1-3 mark in the last 4.
Mike Bianco’s club was certainly disappointed to lose 2 to Alabama, but the Crimson Tide are a top-8 national seed, and someone had to win the series. Losing the SEC Tournament opener to last-place Mizzou, however, was absolutely alarming.
With 15 SEC wins, the Rebels have shown they can beat great teams. But they need to get hot again, starting with this weekend’s road trip.
Oklahoma (Atlanta Regional 2-seed, hosted by No. 2 Georgia Tech)
- Last 10 games: 3-7
- Last series: 1-2 vs. Tennessee (Oklahoma City)
- SEC Tournament: 0-1 (L-LSU)
Of the 12 SEC teams in the field of 64, Oklahoma (32-21) has the worst last-10 record at 3-7. The Sooners have been struggling for a bit, to put it mildly.
While OU has a decent RPI (No. 24) and SEC record (14-16), it’s worrisome how long it has been since the Sooners had a good weekend of baseball. OU only got swept by 1 SEC team (Texas) this season, but you have to go back to April 17-19 against Mizzou to find a series without the Sooners dropping 2 games, which doesn’t bode well for facing double-elimination.
Kentucky (Morgantown Regional 3-seed, hosted by No. 16 West Virginia)
- Last 10 games: 4-6
- Last series: 1-2
- SEC Tournament: 0-1 (L-Vanderbilt)
Kentucky (31-21) made the NCAA Tournament, barely. The Wildcats are one of the Last Four In, but the home stretch of the regular season doesn’t exactly inspire hope for a Cinderella run.
UK was a strange case as a bubble team. The Bat Cats swept Alabama to open conference play, but dropped the next 6 series.
Kentucky got to 13 conference wins by not getting swept, even in its numerous series losses. It’s been about 4 weeks (May 1-3) since the Wildcats had a weekend series without dropping 2 games.
Somewhere in between
A couple of top SEC teams that went one-and-done in Hoover after long layoffs, potentially hurting momentum:
Texas (No. 6 national seed, Austin Regional host)
- Last 10 games: 6-4
- Last series: 3-0 vs. Mizzou
- SEC Tournament: 0-1 (L-Arkansas)
Texas (40-13) has an outstanding record and owns the No. 5 RPI. Why aren’t the Longhorns labeled hot after going 6-4 in the last 10? Blame the layoff.
Jim Schlossnagle’s team finished a sweep of Mizzou on May 16. Since then, the Longhorns have played just 1 ball game, an 8-1 loss to Arkansas in the SEC Tournament. Sweeps are impressive, regardless of opponent, but they lose a little luster sandwiched in between losing 3-of-4 against Tennessee and Arkansas.
Texas is absolutely deserving of the No. 6 national seed and was one of the SEC’s top teams in 2026. It will be interesting to see how the Horns handle all the recent downtime.
Texas A&M (No. 12 national seed, College Station Regional host)
- Last 10 games: 5-5
- Last series: 2-1 vs. Mississippi State
- SEC Tournament: 0-1 (L-Auburn)
Texas A&M (39-14) entered May looking like a top-8 national seed. The Aggies, though, let it slip away down the stretch.
A&M is no doubt steamed that Florida snagged the No. 8 seed even though the Aggies won 2-of-3 over the Gators in Gainesville. Michael Earley’s team had some ups and downs over the final regular-season stretch, going 4-5 against Auburn, Ole Miss and Mississippi State.
Taking 2 from MSU to end the regular season keeps A&M from being labeled not-hot. But it’s also hard to call the Aggies “hot” when they’re in the same position as their bitter rivals in Austin – winners on May 16 and 0-1 since.
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Andrew writes about sports to fund his love of live music and collection of concert posters. He strongly endorses the Hall of Fame campaigns of Fred Taylor and Andruw Jones.
