We’re back for another week of DFS pick ’em projections.
Week 7 was another successful one — the picks went 3-0 for the second consecutive week. That hot streak may come to an end soon, but for now, we’ll keep riding the wave.
Readers may be surprised to not see Michael Hawkins Jr.’s passing prop below. We’ve hit the high side of Hawkins for 3 weeks in a row. But after he threw for over 400 yards last week, the market has adjusted. There’s not as much value as there’s been in recent weeks, so I’m staying away from Hawkins for Week 8.
DFS pick ’em projections for Week 8
Let’s dive into 3 predictions for this week. All projections via Underdog:
Rutgers WR KJ Duff lower than 108.5 receiving yards
KJ Duff has been excellent this season, but I’m going to fade him here — I think this projection is too high. Markets have Rutgers pegged for roughly 250 passing yards and 20 points. Duff has an interesting profile — he’s averaging 0.92 EPA per target but is only catching about 60% of those targets. His average depth of target is north of 14. Duff is a big-play hunter who may soar over this projection if he catches a deep ball or two, but I think it’s more likely that Northwestern is able to keep Duff under 100 yards or so. Northwestern is in the 81st percentile nationally in explosive play rate allowed, per Game on Paper.
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West Virginia RB Cam Cook lower than 96.5 rushing yards
Cam Cook is having a great season if you look at the surface stats. He’s leading the Big 12 in rushing with 833 yards through 7 games. However, his production is largely a product of volume. He’s averaging just 5 yards per carry and has an explosive rush rate of just 7.8%. Cook’s EPA-per-rush is below average on the year. When you’ve got a projection near 100 yards, it’s difficult to get there without a few explosive runs. That’s especially true considering TCU’s defense is in the 87th percentile in EPA-per-rush allowed.
Kansas State QB Avery Johnson higher than 198.5 passing yards
Avery Johnson has cleared 200+ passing yards in 3 of his last 4 games, the only exception being a 35-16 loss to a CFP contender in Houston. Markets suggest K-State is expected to score 28+ points in this game. If that bears out, Johnson should have no issue getting to 200 passing yards. While he has a reputation as a running quarterback, Johnson is averaging over 33 pass attempts per game against FBS opponents this season (including a 50-pass game vs. Cincinnati). This week, he’ll face an Arizona State defense that’s plainly average — the Sun Devils are in the 51st percentile in passing EPA allowed per play.
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Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
