It’s tough to have unique experiences in sports.
Regardless of the situation or the context, there’s almost always some sort of precedent you can look to as you project how a player or team might perform given a certain set of circumstances.
Ole Miss in 2026 feels different to me because of the way Lane Kiffin left the program before the end of last season. Sure, coaches depart for better jobs all the time. Hiring away coaches and poaching players via the portal isn’t unique, either.
But when you consider the emotional toll that Kiffin put Ole Miss through last December, I’m not sure we’ve seen anything like this before — especially when you consider who Kiffin was ultimately able to lure to Baton Rouge (more on that later).
This is a sport where it’s easy to manufacture adversity in order to galvanize a locker room. Georgia players were famously convinced that experts were picking them to go 7-5 a year after winning the national title. Pete Golding won’t have to be nearly as creative — Ole Miss was given all the motivation in the world when Kiffin left the way he did last winter.
The early returns on that motivation were positive. Golding led Ole Miss to a pair of College Football Playoff wins before narrowly losing to Miami in the semis.
It’s been months since that season-ending loss and there are months still to go before a ball is kicked off again in 2026. More players and coaches have departed Oxford for Baton Rouge or elsewhere. Dozens of newcomers have since joined the program.
It’s crucial that Golding and Ole Miss find a way to sustain the momentum that Kiffin’s departure created — not only through the long offseason, but week-to-week throughout the 2026 campaign.
Whether or not they’re able to do so will determine the type of season the Rebels have this fall.
Ole Miss regular season win total analysis
This piece is part of a series we’re running this offseason at Saturday Down South where we’ll look at regular-season win totals for all 16 SEC teams. We’ve previously analyzed Alabama, Georgia and LSU, Auburn and Kentucky. Ole Miss is up now.
Ole Miss regular season win total
Here’s a look at the current regular-season win total odds on BetMGM:
- Over 7.5 wins (-175)
- Under 7.5 wins (+135)
While Ole Miss fans may be more optimistic about this team than the 7.5 win total implies, the market views 8+ wins as far more likely than 7 or fewer victories. The implied probability of -175 translates to a 63.64% chance of Ole Miss winning 8+ games this fall.
Ole Miss 2026 schedule
Here’s what the Ole Miss schedule looks like for 2026:
- Sept. 6: vs. Louisville (in Nashville)
- Sept. 12: vs. Charlotte
- Sept. 19: vs. LSU
- Sept. 26: at Florida
- Oct. 3: OFF
- Oct. 10: at Vanderbilt
- Oct. 17: vs. Missouri
- Oct. 24: at Texas
- Oct. 31: vs. Auburn
- Nov. 7: vs. Georgia
- Nov. 14: at Oklahoma
- Nov. 21: vs. Wofford
- Nov. 27: vs. Mississippi State
Ole Miss is one of a handful of schools that has to play both Texas and Georgia this season — by far the 2 favorites in the SEC. On Kalshi, the Longhorns and Bulldogs are both trading above 20% to win the league this season. No other team is higher than 12%.
The third-toughest game on the schedule is a Week 3 test against LSU in Oxford. Of course, that has game-of-the-decade potential with Kiffin making his return to the Grove.
Beyond those matchups, Ole Miss does have a couple of really tough road games against Florida and Oklahoma where the Rebels could be underdogs. Home games against Mizzou, Auburn and Mississippi State will be must-win propositions if the Rebels are going to go over their win total.
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My pick — I think Ole Miss is going under 7.5 wins. It would be stunning to see Ole Miss beat Texas or Georgia this season. LSU, Florida and Oklahoma all seem like toss-ups. The Rebels probably need to go 2-3 against those 5 opponents in order to reach 8+ wins, but I think 1-4 is more likely and 0-5 as a worst-case scenario is on the table.
Elsewhere on the schedule, I think Auburn and Mizzou are going to be improved this season and a season-opener against Louisville isn’t a guaranteed win by any means.
With the juice at +135 to the under on BetMGM, I like playing that side for Ole Miss. Here are 3 reasons why:
Too little continuity around Trinidad Chambliss
Trinidad Chambliss was among the best quarterbacks in the SEC last season. But it’s also true that he had an incredible supporting cast around him with regards to his teammates and coaches.
Much of Ole Miss’s offensive personnel has moved on to either the NFL or other SEC schools. Here’s an incomplete list of who Ole Miss has lost since the end of last season:
- Head coach Lane Kiffin (LSU)
- Offensive coordinator Charlie Weis Jr. (LSU)
- Tight ends coach Joe Cox (LSU)
- Wide receivers coach George McDonald (LSU)
- Running backs coach Kevin Smith (LSU)
- No. 1 receiver Harrison Wallace (NFL)
- No. 2 receiver De’Zhaun Stribling (NFL)
- No. 4 receiver Cayden Lee (Missouri)
- No. 5 receiver Winston Watkins (LSU)
- Starting right tackle Jayden Williams (NFL)
- Starting left tackle Diego Pounds (NFL)
- Reserve guard PJ Wilkins (Wisconsin)
Those are just the big names. Numerous other staffers and players departed this offseason, many of whom are now at LSU with Kiffin.
Ole Miss does return its 3 starting interior offensive linemen from last season plus running back Kewan Lacy and receiver Deuce Alexander. But the rest of the holes will have to be plugged by transfers and new coach hires. Perhaps those moves from Golding will work out, but there’s not much continuity here.
As far as the coaching staff goes, a lot is riding on the readiness of new offensive coordinator John David Baker. He was previously an assistant under Kiffin at Ole Miss and even had a co-offensive coordinator title before accepting a job with play-calling responsibilities at East Carolina. It’s certainly possible Baker proves himself as one of the best young play-callers in the country, but he’s got big shoes to fill.
Close game variance may flip
Ole Miss went 6-2 in one-score games last season, including a 4-1 record during the regular season — far above the baseline expected record of .500.
It’s possible Ole Miss would have seen some regression in close-game outcomes even if it had brought back its entire coaching staff. But bringing in a first-time head coach in Golding makes it even more likely that the Rebels will struggle in close games.
Rookie head coaches in the SEC are 22-44 in one-score conference games since 2000 — far below the baseline. Most conferences have records near .500 over that span, but the SEC and Big Ten — the leagues with the most pressure and the biggest stadiums — are exceptionally good at punishing first-time head coaches in crunch time.
I think Golding is a good coach, but when the margins are as thin as they will be for Ole Miss this season, trends like this can be impactful.
The schedule is unfavorable
I touched on the schedule a bit earlier, but it really is a tough draw for Golding in Year 1. The Rebels are one of only 2 teams in the SEC this season who will be tasked with playing each of Texas, Georgia and LSU (Arkansas is the other).
The schedule also sets up multiple potential trap games. One week after a highly-emotional contest against LSU, the Rebels have to go into the Swamp and play a much-improved Florida team.
Sandwiched between the UGA and Texas games is a matchup against an Auburn team that could be dangerous this season. After playing the Bulldogs, Ole Miss has to travel to Norman to play OU in what could be a Playoff eliminator in early November.
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Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
