The first (full) college football Saturday is almost here.
While there’s plenty of unknowns at the start of every season, there are a few trends out there for Week 1 that bettors can use to help build their Week 1 slates. While trends should never be used to replace handicapping entirely, they can be an interesting data point if used properly.
Here’s a look at 5 betting trends to keep an eye on this week:
Targeting Week 0 teams
I covered this trend in another story earlier this week, but it’s worth repeating here:
Teams who are playing their first game of the season against a team who played the week before are 38-19 against the spread (66.7%) over the last decade. That’s a remarkable cover percentage over a decent sample size of games.
The idea behind this trend is that it’s an advantage for teams to have a week’s worth of relevant game tape on their Week 1 opponent while the team who played in Week 0 doesn’t have that luxury.
In this case, there are 5 games this week that apply for this trend (lines via FanDuel):
- Boston College (+15.5) at Florida State
- Georgia State (+21.5) at Georgia Tech
- Troy (-9.5) vs. Nevada
- UCLA (-14.5) at Hawai’i
- Arizona (-31.5) vs. New Mexico
SMU also played in Week 0, but the Mustangs face a FCS opponent in Week 1.
Georgia Tech is questionable as a favorite
Everyone seems to be loving Georgia Tech after its upset win over Florida State in Week 0. The Yellow Jackets are now greater than 3-touchdown favorites over Georgia State in Week 1. But this GT team isn’t without some red flags.
The Yellow Jackets have been excellent in the Brent Key era overall against the spread, but almost all of their profitability for bettors has come in the underdog role. As favorites, Georgia Tech is just 1-4 against the spread under Key’s leadership. Only once over that span has Ga Tech been a double-digit favorite — against Bowling Green last season when the Jackets lost 38-27 as 21-point favorites.
FanDuel has Georgia Tech favored by 21.5 points on Saturday against Georgia State.
Backing Penn State as a favorite
Few coaches have been more profitable than James Franklin as a favorite during his time in Happy Valley. Since the start of the 2014 season, Penn State is 54-37-3 against the spread when it’s favored in Vegas. That’s a cover rate of 59%.
Over that same span, Penn State covers at a 55% rate when favored by 10 points or less. The Nittany Lions are good on the road, too, covering at better than a 62% clip when favored as the away team since 2014.
Penn State is -8 (via ESPN BET) at West Virginia in Week 1.
Georgia as a favorite vs. Clemson as an underdog
There’s all sorts of interesting trends on both sides of the marquee matchup between Georgia and Clemson in Week 1. Georgia is -13.5 at DraftKings as of publication.
On one hand, Georgia coach Kirby Smart has been dominant in spots like this. Since he became head coach, Smart is 36-29-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite — a cover rate of 55%.
However, few coaches in the sport have been better than Dabo Swinney in spots like this. Since he took over in 2009, Clemson is 19-12 ATS as an underdog. However, Clemson has struggled in this spot recently. The Tigers have failed to beat the number in 5 of their last 8 regular-season games as a dog.
Clemson has not been this big of an underdog since Sept. 22, 2012, when the Tigers were 14.5-point underdogs to Florida State. Clemson lost that game 49-37 but did enough to cover the spread.
Taking the over in USC vs. LSU
I couldn’t find many edges on the spread for this game, which will be a standalone game in Week 1 on Sunday night. But there is an interesting note on the total.
In 7 seasons as a head coach, Lincoln Riley teams have been an underdog a total of 11 times. It happened 6 times in 5 years at Oklahoma and it’s already happened 5 times in 2 years with the Trojans.
In those 11 games, the over is 8-3 against the total. In this spot, USC totals beat the number to the over by more than 8 points per game. The conventional wisdom, then, would seem to say that Riley is more willing to open things up when he may be at an overall talent disadvantage. The over covered at a much lower rate (58.7%) during Riley’s time at Oklahoma.
Brian Kelly’s LSU teams have also been partial to going over the total. Over the past 2 seasons, the over is 18-7 against the total in LSU contests. The Tigers have a new quarterback and offensive coordinator this year, but the potential for a high-scoring game remains very high with these 2 teams.
The total for this game has been set at 64.5 points, per ESPN BET.
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Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
