It’s time for Week 10 of the college football season.
As is the case every week in this space, below we’ll take a look at 5 prevailing college football narratives and see if they match up to various advanced statistics and market information.
Last week, we broke down some of the similarities and differences between 2026 and 2007, analyzed New Mexico’s CFP path and forecasted the SEC’s Playoff picture, among other topics.
Without further ado, here are 5 more ideas for Week 10:
Selling: Indiana can win the national title
With each passing week, the Hoosiers remind me more and more of 2014 Florida State.
That’s not a compliment. Though the Noles won the 2013 national title and returned Jameis Winston the next year, FSU stumbled and bumbled its way to a 13-0 season before being unceremoniously ejected from the College Football Playoff by Oregon.
That Florida State team won an unbelievable 8 games by a one-score margin. So far this season, after IU’s narrow escape vs. Minnesota, the Hoosiers have already won 4 such contests (and nearly had a 5th against Ohio State).
This Indiana team is just not very impressive relative to the 2025 squad that won it all. Perhaps the Hoosiers will be better if Josh Hoover can get healthy before Playoff games (I still expect IU to qualify for the 12-team field) but if not, it will be a short title defense for Curt Cignetti’s team.
For now, the Hoosiers are 1-8 against the spread after going 10-6 last season. The 2014 Florida State team also had a big ATS drop-off, going from 11-3 in 2013 to 3-11 the following year.
Last season, Indiana’s scoring margin against P4 opponents was +26.6 points per game. So far in 2026, that number has slipped all the way to +8.5.
We’ll see if Indiana can get back on track, but for now, I don’t like its chances.
Buying: Florida State is the best head coaching vacancy so far
Even with Florida State’s financial troubles, I think this is the clear choice for best-available coaching job in this cycle (at least so far).
NC State, Baylor and Maryland are the other contenders, but none have FSU’s history or, frankly, its level of fan engagement/investment.
I’d also rather be one of the big fish in the ACC than a medium (or small) fish in the Big 12 (Baylor) or Big Ten (Maryland).
That’s especially true as we shift toward the 24-team era of the College Football Playoff. On average since 2014, the ACC has had an average of 3.58 teams appear in the final selection committee poll of the season. There’s been at least 3 in all but 2 of those years.
Miami looks poised to run the ACC for awhile, but there’s no clear No. 2 team in this league moving forward. Florida State has as good of a chance as anyone else even after factoring in how miserable the Noles have been for the past 3 seasons.
If you get the hire right at Florida State, you can win the national championship. We’ve seen that this century and we’ve also seen the Noles come close in the portal era. The ceiling for NC State, Baylor and Maryland is much, much lower.
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Buying: Wake Forest is legit
The Demon Deacons absolutely blasted another ACC team on Saturday, this time beating Virginia 51-7. The Cavaliers have dealt with more than their fair share of injuries this season, but they were a popular darkhorse pick to make a CFP run out of the ACC.
Instead, it looks as if Wake is the only ACC team (besides Miami) with a real shot to make the 12-team field. The Demon Deacons’ only loss this year was to the Hurricanes in a closer-than-expected Week 3 clash (Miami won 33-20).
Since that Miami game, Wake Forest has played 5 ACC games. It has won 4 of them by 24+ points. Wake’s last 4 victories have come by 54, 24, 34 and 44 points. Just an astonishing level of dominance from a Wake team that a preseason win total under 6 at most shops.
Overall, Wake has a scoring margin of +21.1 points in power-conference games this season. That is, as you might suspect, the No. 1 scoring margin in the nation in such contests. Miami is No. 2 at +20. UCLA and LSU are the only other programs north of +17.
Since 2021, only 9 qualified teams have finished a regular season with a P4 scoring average of +21 or better. Four of them won the national championship (2025 Indiana, 2023 Michigan, 2021 Georgia and 2021 Georgia).
I don’t think Wake is going to win it all necessarily, but it’s a good indicator that the Demon Deacons will be a Playoff team if they can take care of business in November.
Selling: Notre Dame should be favored vs. Miami
I know Notre Dame is at home, but I was still surprised to see the Fighting Irish be listed as 5-point favorites over the Canes this week.
Notre Dame has been impressive for much of this season save for its loss to BYU and its first-half performance against Navy this past week. But when I look at Notre Dame’s profile, I still see a fatal flaw — a lack of explosive plays on offense.
Notre Dame is in the 96th percentile in EPA-per-play, which is great. But for explosive plays, the Irish are in just the 37th percentile, according to Game on Paper. And those numbers aren’t adjusted for opponent strength, so that’s been Notre Dame’s explosiveness profile against a schedule that ranks just 55th nationally per FPI.
The Irish instead have moved the ball very methodically. They have a 52% success rate on early downs, so they’re often staying ahead of the chains.
But what happens when Notre Dame gets off schedule, as it did against BYU? Because Notre Dame has been so dominant this season, it has only seen 3rd-and-long 25 times. But I think it’s worth noting that 7 of those times came against a BYU defense that is by far the best stop unit the Irish have faced through 9 weeks.
With Notre Dame’s lack of explosiveness, the Irish likely need to have a good night on third downs in order to sustain drives. To me,
Pick: Notre Dame under 31.5 points (56% on Kalshi)
Buying: CJ Carr could win the Heisman Trophy
I think the Heisman Trophy is still a wide open race. I disagreed with Jeremiah Smith being the odds-on favorite at times last month and that seems to have been the right call (albeit the Julian Sayin injury is certainly playing a factor).
Miami quarterback Darian Mensah is the favorite this week with a 39% chance to win the Heisman, per Kalshi. I think that’s a sensible pick — the Heisman is still a QB-dominated award and Mensah has by far — by far — the best advanced metrics of any FBS quarterback this season.
With that being said, the price for Carr is just 8% entering Week 10. That strikes me as good given that Notre Dame is a meaningful favorite this weekend against Mensah’s Hurricanes. The Heisman is nothing if not a narrative award, and it’s not difficult to imagine Carr jumping to the top of the Heisman odds board if Notre Dame wins on Saturday. Again, I don’t like its chances of doing that necessarily, but the market does, and I think that holds considerable weight.
On the surface, Carr has the numbers to be a credible winner. He owns an 18-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio and is averaging over 8 yards per attempt. He needs a win over Miami to stay in the race, but if the Irish do win, his odds should see a sharp spike.
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Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
