BCS model for Week 13 highlights differences with CFP Top 25
By Derek Hryn
Published:
The Week 13 simulated BCS rankings paint a very different picture from what the College Football Playoff committee put out on Tuesday night — and fans immediately noticed where the biggest friction points sit.
At the top, the two systems actually agree: Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A&M, and Georgia make up the same top 4 in both rankings. But everything after that starts drifting fast, especially when it comes to who gets rewarded and who gets punished.
One of the biggest surprises? Notre Dame‘s placement relative to Alabama. The two models match each other exactly — Notre Dame at No. 9 and Alabama right behind it at No. 10. That mirrors the CFP’s stance, which had been met with plenty of frustration from Alabama fans and neutral observers alike.
There’s also a clear divide in which teams the formula values compared to the folks in that committee room. The BCS model includes James Madison (No. 22) and North Texas (No. 23) — neither of which appears in the CFP’s Top 25. Meanwhile, the committee inserted Illinois (No. 21) and Arizona State (No. 25), two teams the computers didn’t rank at all.
The split at No. 5 and No. 6 is also telling.
The simulated BCS has Ole Miss at No. 5, while the CFP puts the Rebels sixth and elevates Texas Tech to No. 5 — a sign the committee is rewarding résumé wins more heavily than the BCS formulas, which still lean on polls and computer efficiency metrics.
The BCS simulation for Week 13 shows that if the old system still existed today, the playoff debate likely wouldn’t be any quieter. In fact, the Alabama–Notre Dame argument might be even louder — and teams like North Texas and James Madison would have far more to stand on than the current committee seems willing to give them.
