We’ve been asking the wrong question all along. It’s not who has Georgia played?
It’s who can beat Georgia?
As the Playoff selection committee gathers in suburban Dallas this weekend and prepares the first Playoff poll of the season on Tuesday, Georgia may not be at the top.
But there’s little doubt who everyone is chasing — especially after the Bulldogs clobbered rival Florida Saturday in Jacksonville, Fla.
“This team is improving. We’re getting better,” Georgia coach Kirby Smart told reporters afterward.
And that should make every team and every player in college football pause just a bit longer.
The team that hasn’t lost since the 2021 SEC Championship Game (25 straight games), that has made the turn to the backstretch of an unthinkable run at 3 straight national titles, is beginning to find itself.
We’ve heard about a weak nonconference schedule (which Georgia most certainly could have avoided), or the 1st-year starting quarterback (have you seen Carson Beck lately?), or that the defense isn’t as good as previous iterations (sure, keep telling yourself that).
So while the committee more than likely will place Ohio State over Georgia, based on the Buckeyes’ wins over Notre Dame and Penn State. We may also see Florida State over Georgia because it has a better win (LSU), and has been more convincingly consistent week after week.
The committee may even place Michigan ahead of Georgia, even though the Wolverines have played a significantly weaker schedule than Georgia.
But make no mistake, everyone: The lead dog in this race is Georgia. The team everyone is chasing is Georgia.
4 in, 4 out
How the Playoff selection committee will vote Tuesday night:
4 in
1. Ohio State
2. Georgia
3. Florida State
4. Michigan
4 0ut
5. Washington
6. Oregon
7. Texas
8. Alabama
How the Playoff selection committee should vote:
4 in
1. Georgia
What’s good: The defense. Goodness gracious, the defense. It may take a series every game — at least, that’s what it looks like of late — but once the Bulldogs get set, look out.
Florida went 66 yards for a touchdown on the opening series of the game, then had 106 yards on 34 plays over the next 8 drives against Georgia’s starting defense — including 2 series ending on downs, 1 ending on a fumble and another with a safety. By that time, Georgia led 36-7 and the game was over.
And another critical thing: QB Carson Beck has taken control of the offense. Enough of the angst about the loss a tight end, for the love of pigskin.
What’s not: Georgia needs another legit option in the passing game. As long as WR Ladd McConkey is healthy, he’s No. 1. When do Dominic Lovett or RaRa Thomas develop into a threat?
2. Florida State
What’s good: All things Jordan Travis. It’s not just the stat-padding game Saturday against Wake Forest.
The 5th-year senior quarterback is dangerous and dynamic every series of every game. When the offense is is rhythm, it’s nearly unstoppable. Travis is accurate, and his off schedule plays in the pass and run games suck the life from defenses.
He has so many dangerous, NFL-level skill players — WRs Keon Coleman and Johnny Wilson, TE Jaheim Bell, RBs Trey Benson and Lawrance Toafili — the offense will score on anyone. Including the elite Georgia, Ohio State and Michigan defenses.
What’s not: It almost looks like this team gets bored on a weekly basis, and then flips the switch when it needs to.
That’s not a good way to run through the overmatched ACC, because habits become routines. And routines are exposed in big games away from the ACC.
3. Ohio State
What’s good: On NFL talent alone, Ohio State has the best defense in college football. The Buckeyes haven’t been this disruptive and destructive on defense since the 2002 national championship season.
You’re not blocking JT Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer off the edge, and you’re certainly not running on DTs Tyleik Williams and Michael Hall.
And the secondary with CBs Denzel Burke and Davison Igbinosun? Don’t be ridiculous.
Ohio State is top 6 in the nation in scoring defense, total defense and pass defense — against a relatively strong schedule (ahem, Michigan defense).
What’s not: Whatever it is QB Kyle McCord has been doing for 8 games. To be fair, he made some big plays in both the Notre Dame and Penn State wins.
But he’s not consistent, and the Buckeyes have been grinding out 4th-quarter wins because they can’t get any semblance of consistency on offense — despite elite talent at wide receiver and running back, and a solid offensive line.
There’s no way Ohio State should’ve been fooling around with Wisconsin on Saturday night Madison, desperately trying to put away a game the Ohio State offense simply wouldn’t take despite numerous opportunities. Those 2 McCord interceptions (1 in the Wisconsin end zone) and a lost fumble didn’t help.
4. Washington
What’s good: The win over Oregon. Seriously, that’s about it right now.
QB Michel Penix Jr. is terrific, but he’s banged up because of a shaky offensive line, and he can’t consistently get the ball to an elite receiving corps.
The Oregon win, where everyone was healthy and everything clicked, is the best win for any team this season, in the best game of the season. That — and the unbeaten record — will resonate with the Playoff committee.
What’s not: The defense has had some truly poor outings this season, most recently Saturday against 2-win Stanford.
For all the capital of the Oregon win, the Ducks win by 2 touchdowns if they play again on a neutral field (which they would in the Pac-12 Championship Game). With each week that plays out — all over college football — it’s becoming increasingly clear that Washington may need to be unbeaten to reach the Playoff.
4 out
5. Michigan
What’s good: Everything — with an asterisk. The Wolverines don’t have a weakness, but they haven’t played anyone with a pulse.
The defense, statistically, has no peer in college football. The starting defense has given up 3 touchdowns all season. Three.
In the era of the vertical pass game and points by the minute, Michigan has given up 47 points in 8 games. Forty-seven.
Meanwhile, QB JJ McCarthy is building a Heisman Trophy-worthy season, and the balanced offense can put defenses in conflict all over the field.
What’s not: Let’s recap the schedule: ECU, UNLV, Bowling Green, Rutgers, Nebraska, Minnesota, Indiana, Michigan State … and Purdue next week.
The Wolverines finish the season at Penn State and Maryland, and with a home game against Ohio State.
6. Oregon
What’s good: Everything but Dan Lanning’s game-day acumen against Washington. Lanning has done a phenomenal job at Oregon in less than 2 seasons.
They’re mentally and physically tougher, and he and his staff have saved Bo Nix’s career. Nix has gone from an SEC washout to a legitimate threat to win the Heisman.
The Ducks played well enough defensively to beat Washington the first time, but Lanning’s decision-making was crushing. Maybe he’ll get a moment of redemption in the Pac-12 Championship Game.
What’s not: Washington. Wait, let me explain.
The Ducks need the Huskies to win out — something that looks mighty iffy right now — to get a chance for a standalone statement game in the Pac-12 Championship, on the Friday night before Championship Saturday.
Without it, Oregon may not have enough juice to jump a 1-loss Big Ten runner-up.
7. Texas
What’s good: Texas hasn’t had a Texas moment. Yet.
By that, I mean Texas is winning the games it should — with the exception of a last-second loss to Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry. The win at Alabama will resonate with the Playoff committee, if for no other reason that it rarely happens. And because it’s Alabama’s only loss.
What’s not: The injury to QB Quinn Ewers’ throwing shoulder. It’s not only the question of how many games Ewers will miss, but how will he play once he returns?
And more important: Can redshirt freshman QB Maalik Murphy get better, and avoid critical turnovers in the final 4 games of the regular season (if Ewers misses all 4): Kansas State, at TCU, at Iowa State, Texas Tech.
8. Alabama
What’s good: You didn’t really think the Death Star would just implode right before our very eyes, did you?
Overshadowed by the unfolding weekly drama on offense has been the elite play of the defense. It’s not an early dynasty Saban defense, but it’s fundamentally strong and will clamp down in critical moments.
The defense is a known, it’s a comfortable security blanket. Now, the offense …
What’s not: Let’s not completely ignore that QB Jalen Milroe plays better every week. He’s getting more confident with 2nd and 3rd level throws, and OC Tommy Rees is more confident in calling those more difficult throws.
The offense still is what it is: The line is average (allowed 35 sacks), and the run game is averaging 3.7 yards per carry. Frankly, without Milroe and his ability to make off schedule throws and runs, the offense could be in a much worse situation.
If the Tide beat LSU next Saturday, the road is clear to the West Division championship and a spot in the SEC Championship Game.
Matt Hayes is a national college football writer for Saturday Down South. You can hear him daily from 12-3 p.m. on 1010XL in Jacksonville. Follow on Twitter @MattHayesCFB
