The Notre Dame Fighting Irish did not make the College Football Playoff in 2025. The last spot came down to a debate between the Irish and Miami, with the Hurricanes ultimately getting the nod.
Miami certainly made the most of its controversial berth, making it all the way to the national title game before losing to the Indiana Hoosiers. But Notre Dame felt it deserved that spot, and let everyone hear about it.
This year, there shouldn’t be any question that the Irish are 1 of the 12 best teams in the nation. Anything less than a top-6 seed, in fact, should be seen as a massive disappointment.
Let’s talk about the Irish today. But first…
Here’s a refresher about the College Football Playoff format for the coming 2026 season:
- Auto bids will be given to the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12 and ACC championship winners
- Notre Dame gets an auto bid if it finishes in the top 12 of the final CFP rankings
- The top Group of 6 champion gets an auto-bid
- The 4 highest-ranked teams in the last CFP rankings get first-round byes, regardless of if they win their conference championships
And here’s a look back at the teams we’ve predicted will make the Playoff thus far during our series:
- No. 12 — Boise State
- No. 11 — Michigan
- No. 10 — Alabama
- No. 9 — LSU
- No. 8 — Indiana
- No. 7 — Texas Tech
- No. 6 — Georgia
- No. 5 — Oregon
Now let’s dig into our analysis of our projected No. 4 seed… the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.
The Playoff Path
Yes, the Irish return star QB CJ Carr, who should be ready to make the jump into the “Heisman contender” tier. And he gets most of his receivers back, including Jordan Faison and Jaden Greathouse.
But the reason for optimism for Notre Dame in 2026 starts with the defense. Per ESPN’s returning production metrics, Notre Dame’s defense is No. 1. The Irish bring back their top 3 tacklers from 2025 (Drayk Bowen, Adon Shuler and Jaiden Ausberry), Leonard Moore and his team-high 5 interceptions to lead a loaded secondary, and top rusher Boubacar Traore and his 6.5 sacks.
Yeah… the defense is stacked. It has a real chance to be the No. 1 scoring defense in the country this season.
That’s especially true when you consider the schedule. Notre Dame shouldn’t get much leeway with this slate of games, which begins with a game at Lambeau Field against Wisconsin.
Miami makes the return trip to South Bend on Nov. 7. SMU visits Notre Dame on Nov. 21. Outside of those 2 games, both of which are at home, Notre Dame’s toughest game is probably an Oct. 17 road trip to Provo to face BYU.
Will Notre Dame lose 1 game this year? Probably. That’s what the Irish do, historically. They always seem to drop at least 1 matchup they shouldn’t.
That’s why I don’t have Notre Dame at No. 1, but going 11-1 with this schedule will earn the Irish the No. 4 spot.
The Possible Roadblock
To say the running game will probably take a step back this fall is an understatement. It’s not often teams lose 2 running backs to Round 1 of the NFL Draft, but that’s what happened to the Irish.
Jeremiyah Love and his 1,372 rushing yards and 18 touchdowns are gone. He also had 280 receiving yards and 3 scores. He went No. 3 overall to the Arizona Cardinals. His teammate, Jadarian Price, went to another NFC West team — the Super Bowl-champion Seattle Seahawks — with the No. 32 pick. He amassed 674 yards and 11 touchdowns rushing in 2025.
I do like Aneyas Williams and think he’ll be a solid running back, but losing 2,000 rush yards and 34 total touchdowns is a tall order. Don’t expect Williams to make up for all that production by himself.
Odds to Make the Playoff
The market is high on the Irish entering the 2026 season. Kalshi gives Notre Dame an impressive 87% chance to make the 12-team Playoff, which is the best in the country.
Check out the latest CFP qualifier market here:
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Next up is the only ACC team we project to make the field of 12 teams.
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Adam is a daily fantasy sports (DFS) and sports betting expert. A 2012 graduate of the University of Missouri, Adam now covers all 16 SEC football teams. He is the director of DFS, evergreen and newsletter content across all Saturday Football brands.
