Of all the teams never to have won a college football national championship, the Oregon Ducks are perhaps the best of the bunch.
It seems like the Ducks are always in the hunt, but have never actually lifted the game’s most-important trophy. Oregon, under head coach Dan Lanning, has made the past 2 College Football Playoffs, but has flamed out before the championship game both times.
In the last 2 years, since joining the Big Ten in 2024, Oregon has had to watch conference contemporaries win the national championship (Ohio State in 2024, Indiana in 2025).
But hope springs eternal, especially in Eugene. This could be the Ducks’ best chance yet to claim that elusive first national championship.
Let’s talk about the Ducks today. But first…
Here’s a refresher about the College Football Playoff format for 2026:
- Auto bids will be given to the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12 and ACC championship winners
- Notre Dame gets an auto bid if it finishes in the top 12 of the final CFP rankings
- The top Group of 6 champion gets an auto-bid
- The 4 highest-ranked teams in the last CFP rankings get first-round byes, regardless of if they win their conference championships
And here’s a look back at the teams we’ve predicted will make the Playoff thus far during our series:
- No. 12 — Boise State
- No. 11 — Michigan
- No. 10 — Alabama
- No. 9 — LSU
- No. 8 — Indiana
- No. 7 — Texas Tech
- No. 6 — Georgia
Now let’s dive into our analysis of our projected No. 5 seed… the Oregon Ducks.
The Playoff Path
It all starts with getting the quarterback back. Dante Moore would’ve had a great chance to be the No. 2 overall pick in this year’s NFL Draft if he’d left Oregon. Instead, he’s back, and he has Heisman Trophy and national title hopes in 2026.
A quick scan of the rest of the offense shows plenty of production that needs replaced. Oregon ranks No. 26 in the nation in returning offensive production — not bad, but not elite.
But a look below the surface shows a unit that should be just fine. Tight end Kenyon Sadiq (560 receiving yards, 8 touchdowns) is gone. Tough loss, yes, but Jamari Johnson (510 yards, 3 TDs) is back and can fill in some of that production.
Leading receiver Malik Benson (719 yards, 6 scores) is gone. But Dakerion Moore (497 yards, 3 TDs), Gary Bryant Jr. (306 yards, 4 TDs) and Jeremiah McClellan (557 yards, 3 TDs) are ready to roll. Evan Stewart should be healthy to start the year and could be an impact player.
So the receiving corps is just fine.
In the running game, Noah Whittington’s team-leading 829 rushing yards and 6 touchdowns are out. But Jordon Davison (667 yards, 15 TDs) and Dierre Hill Jr. (656 yards, 5 scores) are back to lead the ground game.
The defense loses its top 2 tacklers from last season, sure, but Teitum Tuioti (9.5 sacks) and Matayo Uiagalelei (6 sacks) are returning. So is Brandon Finney and his 3 picks. And the Ducks snagged Koi Perich from Minnesota out of the transfer portal.
Basically, the 2 new Oregon coordinators have plenty of talent to work with. What’s that? Two new coordinators?
Let’s dive into that a bit.
The Possible Roadblock
Losing one coordinator is tough. Losing both is extremely difficult.
For a program with such continuity on the roster, the coaching staff underwent some major changes underneath head coach Dan Lanning.
Offensive coordinator Will Stein is now the head coach of the Kentucky Wildcats. Defensive coordinator Tosh Lupoi is now the head coach of Cal.
The Ducks promoted from within on offense with TE coach Drew Mehringer taking over as OC. Same thing on defense, as Chris Hampton sheds the “co-” part of his co-defensive coordinator title from last year.
As mentioned in the previous section, these new coordinators will have plenty of talent to utilize as they see fit. But replacing Lupoi and Stein and the success they both had will be easier said than done.
Those guys won’t have a ton of time to acclimate to their new roles before they start Big Ten play with a tough road trip to face rival USC in Week 4. In Week 10, the Ducks head to Columbus to face Ohio State.
Both of those road tests will be tough. We’ll see how the new staff handles it.
Odds to Make the Playoff
The Ducks are predicted to comfortably make the 12-team Playoff field, which isn’t surprising given they’ve made it the past 2 years. Currently, Kalshi gives Oregon a 75% chance to make the Playoff.
Check out the market below:
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Next up: A team that was very upset it didn’t get a Playoff spot last season.
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Adam is a daily fantasy sports (DFS) and sports betting expert. A 2012 graduate of the University of Missouri, Adam now covers all 16 SEC football teams. He is the director of DFS, evergreen and newsletter content across all Saturday Football brands.
