Tennessee vs. Florida preview: Odds, picks predictions

Tennessee vs. Florida spread

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Tennessee football notes

Tennessee has enjoyed a restful couple of weeks. The Vols were idle in Week 11 and then faced an overmatched New Mexico State squad in Week 12.

The Vols lost to Oklahoma in their most recent SEC game back on Nov. 1. Tennessee has played several close games this season. Games against Georgia, Mississippi State, Arkansas and Oklahoma were all decided by 1 score or less.

Tennessee has had an excellent offensive season. The Vols are 26th nationally in EPA-per-play and 12th in offensive success rate, per Game on Paper.

Joey Aguilar has played well for the most part this year. He currently leads the SEC with 2,941 passing yards and 22 touchdowns. He also leads the SEC in yards per attempt with 9.2.

Tennessee’s super power this season has been its wide receiving corps. The Vols have 3 different receivers who have totaled 650+ yards this season. For context, there are only 12 receivers in the entire SEC who have hit that benchmark in 2025.

Defensively, it’s been a disastrous season for Tennessee. The Vols have really struggled against the pass — they rank 97th nationally in pass defense success rate per Game on Paper.

Those struggles are somewhat excusable given that Tennessee has not had either of its top 2 cornerbacks, Jermod McCoy and Rickey Gibson III, this season.

However, Tennessee has also been very poor against the run. The Vols rank 130th out of 134 FBS teams in defensive rushing success rate entering Week 13.

Florida football notes

Florida played Ole Miss close in Oxford last weekend, but ultimately lost 34-24. It was a good performance for the Gators following their blowout loss to Kentucky the week before.

DJ Lagway returned to the lineup against Ole Miss and threw for 218 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception on 31 attempts.

Lagway has thrown 13 interceptions this season, which is the second-most in the country entering Week 13. Per PFF, Lagway has a turnover-worthy play rate of 5.4%. That’s the highest mark for any QB with at least 300 drop-backs this season.

Jadan Baugh gets almost all of Florida’s touches out of the backfield. He had 15 carries and 4 receptions in the loss to Ole Miss and averaged about 4 yards per touch.

Florida’s defense has been mediocre this season. Game on Paper’s metrics have the Gators in the top 75 in both EPA-per-play allowed and defensive success rate. SP+ has the Gators a bit higher at No. 36 in defense.

Florida defensive lineman Caleb Banks could make his return to the lineup this week. If he does, Banks could have a big impact. He recorded 7 tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks as a defensive tackle in 2024, but hasn’t played since the LSU game this season.

Tennessee vs. Florida picks

I like Florida to cover this number. The Gators showed me enough last week to believe they haven’t quit yet (which was up for debate after the Kentucky debacle). This will be Florida’s first home game since it fired Billy Napier last month. In a game where both quarterbacks have struggled to take care of the ball this season, I’ll take the home team and the points.

Pick: Florida +4.5 (-110 on Fanatics)

I’ll take J Michael Sturdivant to score a touchdown. Sturdivant scored his second touchdown of the year last week against Ole Miss. The former UCLA transfer hasn’t been as impactful as many thought this season, but he’s still had a pretty consistent role as someone who stretches the field vertically. He leads all Florida receivers in total snaps and average depth of target, per PFF. He’s also going up against a Tennessee secondary that has been pretty leaky this season. The Vols are 15th in the SEC with 35 passing plays of 20+ yards given up on the season.

Pick: J Michael Sturdivant anytime touchdown (+160 on DraftKings)

Spenser Davis

Saturday Down South • November 19, 2025 at 9:02pm