ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) sees a matchup more even than one might expect when Florida hosts Arkansas on Saturday in The Swamp.

The Gators have had an up-and-down season in Year 2 under Billy Napier. Florida sits at 5-3, 1 win away from bowl eligibility. Arkansas, meanwhile, is on a miserable 6-game losing skid that includes 5 games decided by 1 possession. If the Razorbacks are going to make a bowl game, they need to win their final 4 contests, starting with Florida.

Despite the 3-game difference in records, ESPN’s FPI has Saturday’s meeting in toss-up territory. ESPN Analytics gives Florida a 51.8% chance of winning the game.

FPI projections are based on simulations. ESPN’s computers may not be accounting for some key factors in the game.

Arkansas dismissed offensive coordinator Dan Enos after a 7-3 loss to Mississippi State. Under new offensive play-caller Kenny Guiton the Razorbacks will have had 2 weeks to make changes to the offense since the Week 8 loss.

The Florida defense will be without its leading tackler. On Wednesday, Billy Napier announced that starting LB Shemar James will miss the rest of the season due to a dislocated knee cap.

Florida and Arkansas are set for a noon ET kickoff in The Swamp, with the game airing on ESPN2. The Gators will be wearing all-black uniforms as a salute to military service ahead of Veterans Day.

Featured image via FloridaGators.com