SEC QB Power Rankings, Week 6: Mizzou's patience in Brady Cook is paying off
Quarterbacks: There are a lot of them! Each week throughout the season, we’ll help you keep the game’s most important position in perspective by ranking the SEC starters 1-14 according to highly scientific processes and/or pure gut-level instinct. Previously: Week 1 … Week 2. … Week 3 … Week 4. … Week 5.
1. Jayden Daniels, LSU
On paper, Daniels might be the hottest quarterback in the country. Despite getting off to a disappointing start in the opener, he closed the month of September ranked No. 2 nationally in total offense, 4th in pass efficiency, 5th in overall PFF grading and 9th in Total QBR. He’s No. 1 among all players in EPA. He’s been highly productive as a runner, setting out a 1,000-yard pace (excluding sacks) for the second year in a row, and a revelation as a downfield passer, throwing an FBS-best 11 touchdown passes on attempts of 20+ yards. (That’s up from 5 TDs on downfield attempts for all of 2022.) If not for Joe Burrow’s untouchable 2019 campaign, Daniels would be on pace for the most prolific season in school history, by far.
Still, I’m stuck on the same question I posed in August: Is he a plausible bet for the Heisman? The answer is still eh, albeit for very different reasons. Before the season, the big question mark in Daniels’ game was his willingness and ability to throw deep with any kind of consistency; obviously, he’s leveled up on that front with a bullet.
Now, the biggest hurdle as we approach midseason is one entirely outside of his control: LSU’s defense. The D has been atrocious in losses to Florida State and Ole Miss, giving up a combined 100 points and 1,200 yards in a couple of high-profile defeats that have already tanked the Tigers’ national rep just 3 games into the conference schedule.
And if there’s anything we know about Heisman politics, it’s that the most relevant number is almost always the one in the loss column. In the Playoff era, only 2 quarterbacks have won the award for teams that were not CFP bound (Lamar Jackson in 2016, Caleb Williams in 2022), and only 2 others have even made the trip to NYC as finalists (Dwayne Haskins in 2018, Kenny Pickett in 2021). Although Daniels’ production has exceeded any realistic expectations, his odds as the face of a 3-2 team have only gotten longer.
Given his blistering pace over the past 3 weeks, it’s still too soon to write off Daniels entirely, or LSU as a team. Last year, the Tigers rebounded from a nondescript, 4-2 start to beat Alabama and win the West, a run they’re more than capable of pulling off again if the defense manages to just be average. A repeat trip to Atlanta, followed by a redemptive turn against (presumably) Georgia once they’re there, would make for a more compelling case than any statistical resumé ever could. (It wouldn’t hurt if he stopped putting himself in position to wind up on the losing end of viral collisions on a near-weekly basis, either.) But getting there will require Daniels to continue prove his hot streak is the new norm, and the margin for error is down to zilch.
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(Last week: 1⬌)
2. Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss
Last week, Dart’s stock was down coming off a Week 4 flop at Alabama. This week, it’s surging again following the the game of his life: A 389-yard, 4-touchdown effort against LSU on a night when both offenses’ brakes were cut before the opening kick. He started strong, leading 4 touchdown drives (all covering 70+ yards) on Ole Miss’ first 5 possessions, and finished stronger, polishing off 3 more extended TD drives in the 4th quarter after fully hurdling a dude to end the 3rd.
Must be the J's
⬆️ @JaxsonDart pic.twitter.com/jRkPfq8b7d
— Ole Miss Football (@OleMissFB) October 1, 2023
Altogether, the Rebels scored the game’s first 14 points and its last 14 points — just enough to overcome a 49-27 deficit in between. That may or may not turn out to be a prelude to a dark-horse run in the West; either way, the scene in Vaught-Hemingway was well worth a $100,000 check to the league office.
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(Last week: 3⬆)
3. Brady Cook, Missouri
Mizzou is 5-0 for the first time in a decade, and Cook’s rapid ascent is the reason. Last year, he was the SEC’s most improved quarterback from the beginning of the season to the end, gradually tightening his grip on a job he initially seemed unlikely to keep. This year, he’s making a strong case for the title of most improved quarterback in America, and getting stronger by the week:
As of 3 weeks ago, Cook had yet to throw for 300 yards in a game, or even come particularly close vs. an FBS opponent; in the meantime, he’s done it on 3 consecutive Saturdays vs. Kansas State, Memphis and Vanderbilt, each time with room to spare. His 395-yard, 4-touchdown outing against Vandy in Week 5 set new career-highs in both categories, as well as establishing a new SEC record for consecutive pass attempts without an interception (348, dating to last October).
Just as notably, it couldn’t be spun as merely the latest episode of The Luther Burden III Show. While Burden got his against the Commodores — 11 catches for 140 yards and 2 touchdowns, his 4th straight game in triple digits — so did his running mates: Oklahoma transfer Theo Wease, a former 5-star who had easily his best game as Tiger (10 for 118 yards, 1 TD); Ohio State transfer Mookie Cooper, who’s averaging 15.7 yards on 12 catches over the past 3 games; and true freshman Marquis Johnson, whose first 5 career receptions in the same span have yielded 36.4 yards a pop and 2 long touchdowns. There’s a lot of potential in that group beyond just the headliner.
Now, is that sustainable against the meat of the conference slate? TBD, although for what it’s worth K-State is probably about as solid defensively as anyone on the remaining schedule other than Georgia. As for this weekend’s date with LSU, the Bayou Bengals are limping into Columbia off their shootout loss at Ole Miss ranked 117th in total defense, 108th in scoring, and 121st in yards per play allowed. If Cook is more than the flavor of the month, he has a golden opportunity in the noon ESPN slot to let the whole country know.
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(Last week: 6⬆)
4. Carson Beck, Georgia
Beck is beginning to grasp the most important aspect of his job: Get the ball to Brock freakin’ Bowers by any means necessary. After a slow start, he’s targeted Bowers 31 times in the past 3 games for 332 yards (237 of them coming after the catch) and 3 touchdowns. With the hour getting late in Saturday’s eventual 27-20 win at Auburn, Beck and Bowers connected 6 times for 152 yards in the final 20 minutes, including the longest gain on each of 3 consecutive scoring drives. (And not including the second of Bowers’ series of one-handed catches in the 4th quarter, which was negated by a penalty.) The wideouts are a work in progress, the running game is adequate at best, and the defense is a rung or two below the lofty standard set the past 2 years. But as long Beck can keep the conference’s best player prominently involved, their connection can solve a whole lot of problems.
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(Last week: 5⬆)
5. Spencer Rattler, South Carolina
A pattern is emerging in South Carolina’s losses: Road trip, big deficit, Rattler in the crosshairs. In Week 1, North Carolina opened up a double-digit lead on the Gamecocks early in the 3rd quarter; Rattler spent the rest of the night running for his life, ultimately getting sacked 9 times in a 31-17 loss. In Week 3, Georgia rallied from a halftime deficit to take the lead midway through the 3rd; Rattler spent the rest of the afternoon in survival mode, facing pressure on nearly half of his total drop-backs in a 24-14 loss. On Saturday, Tennessee began to pull away on a ghastly pick-6 just before halftime …
Kamal takes it himself! #GBO ? pic.twitter.com/TEQOU94qrN
— Tennessee Football (@Vol_Football) October 1, 2023
… and, well, you get the picture. The Vols pressured Rattler on 20 of his 45 drop-backs in a 41-20 rout, including 6 sacks. At least in this case there was no doubt that he was responsible for contributing to his own misery, thus officially ending the Rattlissaince.
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(Last week: 2⬇)
6. KJ Jefferson, Arkansas
Jefferson’s 9-for-17, 132-yard box score against Texas A&M was ugly enough at first glance, and the closer you look the uglier it gets. Not reflected in the raw stats: 8 sacks, a pick-6, and a general failure to connect on anything beyond the line of scrimmage — 5 of his 9 completions fell behind the line, per PFF, and his longest gain (a 48-yard touchdown pass) came on his final attempt in garbage time. That throw plus a 38-yard gain on a screen pass to Rocket Sanders represented roughly half of Arkansas’ total offense on the day.
Jefferson passed on the NFL Draft for this? He came back for a 5th year to boost his stock in a more pro-style system under new offensive coordinator Dan Enos; instead, he’s looked more lost than he ever did in 2 seasons under ex-OC Kendal Briles. The Razorbacks can’t run the ball, can’t protect him in the pocket, and just lost their most promising receiver, true freshman TE Luke Hasz, to a season-ending injury. It’s always darkest in the midst of a 3-game losing streak, but with back-to-back road trips to Ole Miss and Alabama on deck, there’s no light at the end of the tunnel.
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(Last week: 4⬇)
7. Jalen Milroe, Alabama
Milroe attempted just 12 passes in a 40-17 win at Mississippi State, fewest by a Bama starter vs. an FBS opponent since Greg McElroy went 6-for-12 for 58 yards against Texas in the 2009 BCS Championship Game. At least Milroe got decent bang for his buck, completing 10 of them for 13.7 yards a pop; factor in 69 yards and 2 touchdowns rushing, and that was good for the weekend’s top QBR rating across the entire FBS. Another plus outing this weekend at Texas A&M, and that whole “benched after throwing 2 terrible INTs against Texas” thing will be firmly in the rearview.
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(Last week: 9⬆)
8. Joe Milton III, Tennessee
You wouldn’t guess it from the final score, but Milton was shaky in the win over South Carolina, throwing 2 picks (1 of which set up a short-field Carolina touchdown) and turning his his worst QBR rating as a Vol vs. an FBS opponent. On the bright side: A comfortable W on a night when Tennessee controlled every other aspect of the game, and a 50-yard bomb to a receiver nicknamed “Squirrel.” Consistency remains the question with Texas A&M and Alabama looming on the other side of an open date.
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(Last week: 8⬌)
9. Devin Leary, Kentucky
Kentucky didn’t need Leary to do much in its run-oriented, 33-14 beatdown of Florida, and he didn’t, finishing 9-for-19 for 69 yards. His presence (absence?) barely registered on an afternoon when the Wildcats probably could have won without attempting a single pass. That won’t be the case this weekend at Georgia, the game Leary portaled in to give them a chance to win. They’ll need him and his talented but underutilized wideouts at their best to put the Bulldogs on alert.
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(Last week: 7⬇)
10. Graham Mertz, Florida
Mertz arrived from Wisconsin with the “game manager” label firmly affixed, and his September stat line reflects it: Although he ranks 2nd nationally in completion percentage — trailing only our old frenemy, Bo Nix — Mertz is last among SEC starters in both average depth of target (6.6 yards) and yards per completion (11.1), with nearly a third of his attempts aimed behind the line of scrimmage. That’s fine, as long as the defense and running game are also holding up their ends of the bargain; see the Gators’ run-oriented, possession-hogging win over Tennessee for proof of concept. Otherwise, as we’ve seen in their losses at Utah and Kentucky, it can get very tedious very quickly.
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(Last week: 12⬆)
11. Will Rogers, Mississippi State
Four-year starters in the SEC are fairly rare, and few of them have been owned by 1 opponent across all 4 seasons as thoroughly as Rogers has been by Alabama. He did manage to throw a touchdown pass on Saturday, his first against Bama and 89th overall, moving him into a tie with Peyton Manning for 4th place on the SEC’s career list. (Manning, of course, being another example of a long-tenured QB who was famously owned by a division rival in his years at Tennessee.) It was offset, however, by 3 interceptions, bringing his career total against the Tide to 8 — 3 of which Bama returned for touchdowns.
Take it ALL. THE. WAY!!!!! @Chrisbras410
? ESPN pic.twitter.com/UxtHK5cnrp
— Alabama Football (@AlabamaFTBL) October 1, 2023
A 5th year of eligibility is on the table in 2024 if Rogers wants it, courtesy of the free COVID year. An awful lot will go into the decision to stay or go, but at this point, the prospect of coming out for one more round in Tuscaloosa has to factor in somewhere. Although in which direction, I’m not sure.
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(Last week: 10⬇)
12. Max Johnson, Texas A&M
Johnson had a dynamite first half against Arkansas, leading 3 scoring drives on the Aggies’ first 4 possessions. (The 4th resulted in a missed field goal.) He got a little sloppy in the second half, throwing a pick-6 INT and losing 2 fumbles. Vibes are positive heading into Alabama week, but the verdict remains out pending his performance against the Tide.
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(Last week: 11⬇)
13. Payton Thorne, Auburn
Thorne had an eye-opening afternoon against Georgia as a runner, most notably on a 61-yard gain in the first quarter that set up a field goal and left everyone who followed his plodding tenure at Michigan State in disbelief. (Including sacks, he finished with 42 yards rushing for the entire 2022 season.) As a passer, not so much: His 19 attempts yielded 4.3 ypa, 4 first downs and a long gain of 22 yards, as well as the game-clinching INT. Good job, good effort, no movement in the rankings.
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(Last week: 13⬌)
14. Ken Seals or AJ Swann, Vanderbilt
Dig around in the exhaustively specific PFF database for a while, and you’ll come across some startling nuggets. Such as the fact that Swann, who ranks at or near the bottom of the SEC in most categories, somehow leads the nation in what PFF classifies as “Big Time Throws” — a nebulous metric defined as “a pass with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further down the field and/or into a tighter window.” Swann has 16 BTTs in 173 attempts this season, narrowly edging the likes of Shedeur Sanders (15), Jayden Daniels (14), Michael Penix Jr. (13), Sam Hartman (12), Drake Maye (10) and Caleb Williams (9). So there you go.
Unfortunately for Swann, he’s also tied for the national “lead” in interceptions, with 7, including 2 pick-6s in Vandy’s Week 4 loss to Kentucky. The giveaways combined with a sore elbow got him benched in Week 5, when Seals went the distance against Missouri in his first start in nearly 2 years. Seals accounted for 3 touchdowns (2 passing, 1 rushing), but was also picked once in a 38-21 loss, leaving the door open for Swann’s return to the starting lineup as soon as this weekend at Florida. At his weekly press conference, coach Clark Lea was vague about the pecking order heading into Gainesville, possibly because he has the same difficulty telling these guys apart as everyone else.
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(Last week: 14⬌)
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