SEC QB Power Rankings, Week 1: Alabama has 3 aspiring starters. Does it have a star?
Quarterbacks: There are a lot of them! Each week throughout the season, we’ll help you keep the game’s most important position in perspective by ranking the SEC starters 1-14 according to highly scientific processes and/or pure gut-level instinct.
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1. KJ Jefferson, Arkansas
Jefferson thrived under former offensive coordinator Kendal Briles, accounting for 60 total touchdowns in 2021-22 while finishing in the top 10 nationally in pass efficiency both years. As far as his NFL Draft stock is concerned, though, the transition to new OC Dan Enos might be for the best. Fairly or not, the Briles system has always been considered a very “college” offense that doesn’t ask its quarterbacks to master many of the concepts scouts ideally want to see from a top prospect. There certainly has never been any doubt about Jefferson’s physical tools or his production; if he has anything left to prove as a 5th-year senior, it’s all in the technical arcana of pre-snap recognition and post-snap reads.
Regardless of what else changes, one thing that will not: The enormous degree of difficulty in wrestling his 6-3, 242-pound frame to the ground. In the pocket or short-yardage, the man is a load. Jefferson has generated more than 75% of his 1,777 career rushing yards (excluding sacks) after contact, and 18 of his 19 rushing touchdowns from inside the red zone.
2. Jayden Daniels, LSU
Daniels was efficient enough as a passer in 2022, finishing among the national leaders in interception rate with 3 INTs in 388 attempts. What really distinguished him, though, was his legs: Excluding sacks, his 1,079 rushing yards, 45 runs of 10+ yards, and 54 missed tackles forced led all FBS quarterbacks in all three columns. More important, they led LSU — whose injury-plagued running back rotation behind him never gelled into a stable committee — by a mile. While not exactly a breakaway threat, Daniels’ short-area elusiveness as a scrambler and proficiency in the zone-read game were the keys that unlocked the Tigers’ offense at midseason, and his overtime touchdown scramble against Alabama was arguably the single biggest play en route to the SEC West crown.
Now, is that enough to make him a plausible bet for the Heisman? Eh. Making that case will require significantly more downfield juice, an area where Daniels was so conservative last year that at one point Brian Kelly openly urged him to take more risks. If he manages to level up on that front while continuing to account for an outsized share of the ground game, welcome to the conversation. At the very least, his title as the SEC’s most dynamic dual-threat seems safe.
3. Will Rogers, Mississippi State
Up to this point in his career, Rogers has been the quintessential Mike Leach quarterback, setting SEC records for career attempts and completions in just 3 seasons. Who is he now without Leach? The Bulldogs are moving on from the Air Raid, figuring (wisely) that there’s no point in attempting to run a posthumous version of Leach’s signature offense in the absence of the man himself; the new play-caller, Kevin Barbay, comes from Appalachian State with a more conventionally balanced approach. The days of putting the ball in the air 50 times per game are in the past.
That poses a significant challenge for Rogers, a classic “system” quarterback who was as comfortable in his system as anyone on the college level. Like every other Leach QB who came before him, he’s never been mistaken for a stud prospect with a golden arm, or for posing any threat whatsoever as a runner; his chief asset is a processing speed honed from the sheer volume of repetition over 3 years and thousands of reps in a familiar offense. At the same time, the transition also presents an opportunity to prove his skill set is more adaptable than he’s usually been given credit for. Last season, despite the volume, Rogers completed just 13 passes that gained 30 or more yards. Mizzou’s Brady Cook had more. So did 8 other SEC QBs. Is it possible Rogers has more mobility and/or downfield juice than the Air Raid ever asked him to demonstrate? Barbay’s job is to find out.
4. Spencer Rattler, South Carolina
How do you solve a riddle like Rattler? In the span of a few short years he’s taken the roller coaster route from rising star to Heisman favorite to depth-chart casualty to has-been and halfway back again, remaining an enigma to the end. Anyway, he’s still here.
On paper, Rattler spent most of 2022 ranked at or near the bottom of the SEC in every major category, including pass efficiency and Total QBR. South Carolina’s offense as a whole was nondescript, bottoming out in a 38-6 debacle at Florida in mid-November in which Rattler was literally posterized in his attempt to tackle a 415-pound defensive tackle in the open field following a fumble — a fitting image at that point for his deflating reputation. (Credit where it’s due: Despite the mockery, Rattler actually succeeded in getting possibly the largest man in the history of college football to the ground.)
Just when it seemed to safe to write him off as a bust, though, Rattler flipped the switch, turning in the season’s most stunning individual performance in a 63-point bonanza against Tennessee that reminded everyone what the hype had been about in the first place. He followed that up by leading a landmark upset over Clemson, the Gamecocks’ first win in the rivalry since 2013, generating a palpable sense of momentum heading into the offseason. His arm talent has certainly never been in doubt, which only makes his inconsistency that much more frustrating. With a dozen Saturdays left in his college career, Rattler remains capable of just about anything on any given one of them.
5. Joe Milton III, Tennessee
For a guy who’s been on campus as long as Milton, he has not played much, with just 697 career snaps over 5 seasons at Michigan and Tennessee. Both of his stints as an opening-day starter, at Michigan in 2020 and Tennessee in ’21, were eventful but brief. Pretty much anyone else with that kind of track record at such a late stage of their career would not crack the top half of this ranking. But no one else has what Milton has: A military-grade right arm that effortlessly stacks up against the biggest guns on record.
Joe Milton. From downtown. pic.twitter.com/AB22UpkcuH
— Nick Baumgardner (@nickbaumgardner) July 31, 2023
Now, does it always land where he intends it to? It does not. Milton’s rep for comic inaccuracy is well-established, and will continue to dog him until he proves otherwise. On paper, at least, it is also perhaps slightly overblown. In 2022, Milton launched 29 of his 82 attempts at least 20 yards downfield, per PFF, predictably the highest rate in the SEC by a wide margin; more surprisingly, given the scouting report, he also led the league in completion percentage on those throws, at 48.3%. (Among regular starters, Hendon Hooker and Spencer Rattler tied for the SEC lead at 44.1%.) Small sample size, etc., but in his limited capacity, Milton was the only FBS passer with at least 10 touchdowns and zero interceptions.
Two other reasons for optimism this fall: One, Josh Heupel’s offense, which has a well-established reputation of its own for allowing its quarterbacks to unleash the beast vertically; and two, Milton’s most recent performance, a 251-yard, 3-touchdown outing in place of an injured Hendon Hooker in the Vols’ Orange Bowl win over Clemson. You don’t have to fall for the cliché that random bowl victories generate “momentum” to recognize that if that’s the full-grown version of Milton the Vols get in 2023, they have a very good chance of being right back in the CFP mix. The question is just how big that if really is.
6. Jaxson Dart or Spencer Sanders, Ole Miss
Dart was fine in 2022, finishing in the top half of the SEC in pass efficiency and Total QBR with perfectly respectable marks from the film eaters at Pro Football Focus. Incumbents with that kind of track record as a true sophomore usually don’t have to worry about job security. But Lane Kiffin clearly has his sights set higher than “respectable,” and after watching an 8-0 start unravel in a 1-4 finish he was in no mood to settle for the status quo. Enter Sanders, a 6th-year vet with 41 career starts at Oklahoma State, whose arrival (along with blue-chip LSU transfer Walker Howard) initiated a high-stakes QB controversy only the transfer portal could make possible.
Dart appeared to emerge from spring drills with the incumbent’s edge, although all 3 contenders looked the part in the spring game. He’s being counted on to level up as a downfield passer, while Sanders, who’s coming off a shoulder injury that dogged him over the second half of last season, represents an upgrade as a runner — a serious consideration in an offense that has heavily involved the quarterback in the ground game on Kiffin’s watch. (Albeit with mixed results, considering the punishment Dart and his predecessor, Matt Corral, have both endured.) No matter who starts the opener, both figure to get meaningful reps in the nonconference slate, and odds are good that the designated backup will be called upon at some point in the thick of SEC play. Either way, the Rebels can rest easy with the best insurance policy in the country.
7. Devin Leary, Kentucky
Kentucky didn’t get nearly the performance it had hoped last year from Will Levis, who suffered from overhype before the season and nagging injuries throughout. On Oct. 1, the Wildcats were 4-0 and ranked No. 7 in the AP poll; from that point on, they finished 3-6 while topping out at 27 points.
Enter Leary, a 6th-year transfer with 29 career starts at NC State. Leary also was fairly hyped last summer, but barely had a chance to deliver before what was supposed to be his culminating season in Raleigh was cut short by a shoulder injury. (He also suffered a season-ending injury in 2020.) In 2021, he posted the ACC’s best touchdown-to-interception ratio with 35 TDs to just 5 picks. (The TD total broke Philip Rivers’ school record.)
The other key offseason addition where the position is concerned was a familiar one: Liam Coen, who oversaw Levis’ 2021 breakout as offensive coordinator and rejoined the fold in January following a … let’s say, challenging 2022 campaign with the L.A. Rams. If you were wondering all that time how the draftniks ever settled on Levis as a top prospect despite his just-okay production, Coen’s pro-style offense and pro-style connections are a good place to start. Leary, at 6-1, 217, is not nearly in Levis’ class as an obvious next-level specimen, but he’s efficient, he’s played a ton, and he has weapons in Tayvion Robinson, Barion Brown and Dane Key. As long as he’s healthy, there’s a very good chance he turns out to be an upgrade.
8. Carson Beck, Georgia
You can’t claim a guy who finished 4th in the Heisman vote never got the respect he deserved, but it is telling that the preseason consensus is to treat Stetson Bennett like just another interchangeable cog in the machine. For all his success, Bennett never completely shed the stigma of the sub-6-foot walk-on who managed to hang around long enough to luck into an ideal situation and then rode it for all it was worth. (After all, he lasted until the 4th round of the draft for a reason.) All the available evidence, though, reinforces the fact that he was just a straight-up very good college quarterback. He ranked in the top nationally in ESPN’s Total QBR metric each of the past 2 seasons, finishing with virtually identical numbers to Bryce Young and CJ Stroud both years, and was at his best when the stakes were the highest. Facing 4th-quarter deficits against Alabama in the 2021 title game and Ohio State in last year’s semifinal, he led multiple touchdown drives on both occasions to put Georgia over the top. There was always the question of whether it was still possible to win big in the Playoff era with an underwhelming specimen like Bennett behind center, but in the end it was more likely that the Dawgs couldn’t have won without him.
All of which is to say that replacing Bennett, as well as NFL-bound OC Todd Monken, is not a negligible concern. Beck is considerably bigger than Bennett at 6-4, 220, and arrived with the requisite 4-star credentials in 2020. By Georgia standards, though, he was not a blue-chip prospect — as opposed to redshirt sophomore Brock Vandagriff, a former 5-star who has so far failed to overtake Beck on the depth chart — and he’s broadly expected to fall into the “game manager” column, with a similar mission to Bennett’s: Distribute the ball to the playmakers and don’t gift the other side any cheap points via turnovers.
One thing that Beck and the new play-caller, Mike Bobo, cannot replicate is experience. Bennett turned 24 years old in the middle of the 2021 title run, and 25 last year as a 6th-year senior. Beck, 20, has yet to take a meaningful snap in 3 seasons on campus. How likely is it that the offense, always the Bulldogs’ Achilles’ heel prior to Monken taking over as OC, is going to look more like the attack that averaged just shy of 40 points per game over the past 2 seasons than the often frustrating units that preceded it? Until we get a better sense of what Bobo and Beck bring to the table against a real defense, they may as well get used to living with the question.
9. Jalen Milroe or Ty Simpson or Tyler Buchner, Alabama
Alabama hasn’t had a true quarterback competition between unproven candidates since 2016, when a handful of since-forgotten vets were surpassed by a barely-18-year-old freshman, Jalen Hurts. The expectations for the position in the meantime have changed dramatically. Beginning with Hurts, every player who has manned it since has been not just a winner, but a full-blown, Heisman-caliber star who is currently a franchise cornerstone in the NFL.
By that standard, the 3 guys vying for the position at the moment look like, well, just guys. Milroe flashed his breakaway speed last year in a win over Arkansas, but looked ordinary and turnover-prone in his lone start against Texas A&M. Neither he nor Simpson, a former 5-star, moved the needle in the spring. Buchner, who followed new offensive coordinator Tommy Rees from Notre Dame, initially won the starting job in South Bend last year as a redshirt freshman, but remains a blank slate after missing nearly the entire season due to a shoulder injury. Nick Saban nixed the official depth chart for Saturday’s opener against Middle Tennessee State altogether to avoid listing any of their names at the top of it, even followed by an “OR.”
Locally, the tea leaves seem to favor Milroe, who reportedly ran with the first team in the final preseason scrimmage last weekend and has made “a significant amount of improvement,” per Saban. And it’s worth noting that the pecking order against MTSU is not necessarily etched in stone. (Recall that Hurts actually came off the bench in his first college game, against USC; do you remember who was the starter?) But with Texas on deck in Week 2, there is some urgency to come up with an answer ASAP.
10. Conner Weigman, Texas A&M
Weigman made a good first impression last November, bombing Ole Miss for for 338 yards and 4 TDs in his first career start, and a good last impression, contributing 2 TD passes to the Aggies’ season-ending ambush of LSU. In between, he played the part of the struggling freshman in a couple of forgettable outings against Auburn and UMass. A wash, as highly anticipated debuts go.
Under the circumstances of A&M’s rapidly putrefying season, it could have been a lot worse. As a sophomore, Weigman takes over the full-time role with his 5-star recruiting hype intact and, presumably, much improved morale. There’s also a new offensive coordinator, Bobby Petrino, whose ŕole has been the source of much intrigue due to the fact that a) Jimbo Fisher only relented to hiring an OC under the pressure of last year’s collapse; and b) no one really seems to believe that Fisher is capable of relinquishing control of the offense, and the quarterbacks, in particular.
Weigman’s talent is a given — as is the talent of his surrounding cast — but his development suddenly hinges on the merger of two of the sport’s biggest egos.
11. Graham Mertz, Florida
At Wisconsin, Mertz was the Badgers’ highest-rated QB signee of the online ranking era and, briefly, a rising star following an impressive debut in 2020. Instead, he turned out to be just another generic Wisconsin quarterback right off the assembly line, finishing in the middle of the pack among Big Ten starters in every major category in each of the past 3 seasons. And in the B1G West, especially, we’re not talking about the most impressive pack.
At Florida, he’s widely regarded as a stopgap, well-seasoned filler for an unexpected vacancy created by Anthony Richardson’s early exit for the draft. Although Mertz has 2 years of eligibility remaining (thanks to the free COVID year), patience for progress in Year 2 of the Billy Napier administration is in short supply. If he succeeds in reviving his career, Mertz might be off to the 2024 NFL Draft. If not, the Gators might be ready to move on again.
12. Payton Thorne, Auburn
Another middle-of-the-road Big Ten refugee, Thorne’s transfer from Michigan State in late April came as a much bigger surprise: Unlike Wisconsin, MSU wasn’t in the midst of a coaching change, and Thorne appeared to be entrenched after 2 up-and-down years as the Spartans’ full-time starter. Speculation immediately swirled that he’d lost ground to a couple of underclassmen in the spring, but hasn’t amounted to any more than that.
Whatever his motivation, Thorne made a beeline for Auburn, where Hugh Freeze was in the market for an upgrade over incumbent Robby Ashford. Thorne, like Mertz, is a 5th-year guy with 2 years of eligibility left and a chance to revive a career trajectory that had grown stale in the Midwest. And like Mertz, his jersey number in his new colors may as well be TBD.
13. Brady Cook, Missouri
This position almost feels a little unfair to Cook, who made progress late last year after languishing at the bottom of the rankings throughout the season. Still, despite starting every game in 2022 his status as QB1 remains provisional. He’s locked in what appears to be a genuine competition with redshirt freshman Sam Horn, one of the gems of Mizzou’s ’22 recruiting class, who’s due for meaningful reps in the Tigers’ opener against South Dakota. Cook proved last year that he can be, at minimum, a baseline SEC starter for a team that aspires to the Gasparilla Bowl. But if Horn looks the part, the opportunity to promote the younger, more touted player might be too good to resist.
14. AJ Swann, Vanderbilt
After a turbulent freshman campaign, Swann is the undisputed starter in Year 2. He hit his marks in the Commodores’ Week Zero opener against Hawai’i, throwing for 258 yards, 3 touchdowns and no picks in a 35-28 win. He looks like a keeper to me, but then with Vandy QBs, the shelf life tends to be unpredictable. I thought the same thing a couple years ago about another freshman starter who seemed to be on the tenure track, Ken Seals, who subsequently fell out of favor amid a coaching change and is currently on full-time clipboard duty in Year 4. Life, like a well-timed blitz, comes at you fast.