Breaking down the weekend’s SEC slate, all in one place.

Game of the Week: Tennessee at Alabama (-8.5)

The stakes: Who’s playing for keeps in November?

Last year, Bama and Tennessee arrived at the Third Saturday in October undefeated, setting up the highest-stakes meeting in the rivalry since Peyton Manning was a sophomore. It exceeded the hype, with the Vols exorcising 15 years’ worth of demons against the Crimson Tide and announcing themselves as national contenders in a 52-49 classic that wrung every ounce of drama out of the scene. As recently as 6 weeks ago, there was every reason to assume the build-up to the rematch would feel just as grandiose. Both teams were ranked in the top 10, with the virtual assurance that they would be favored in every game en route.

Instead, both teams have spent the intervening weeks clinging to national relevance with zero margin for error.

Two early upsets — at the hands of Texas and Florida, respectively — knocked the Tide and Vols from their respective perches at the first opportunity, and neither has done much in the meantime to convince the rest of the country the initial setback was a fluke. Alabama, looking more like one of the defensive-oriented teams from the first half of Nick Saban‘s tenure than the high-octane outfits that lit up the scoreboard over the past 5 years, has won 5 straight since its Week 2 flop against the Longhorns despite scoring 30 points just once in that span; the past 2 entries in the streak, a 26-20 win at Texas A&M and a 24-21 decision over Arkansas, were decided by a total of 9 points vs. unranked opponents.

Tennessee, facing its first major test since its Week 3 flop in Gainesville, narrowly edged A&M last week in a 20-13 slugfest in which the formerly high-flying Vols finished with just 100 yards passing and 1 offensive touchdown.

Still, style points notwithstanding, here they are: A single loss apiece, 8 straight wins between them, all the big goals at least theoretically intact over the second half of the season. The winner on Saturday will take a major step toward Atlanta with its biggest division game (LSU in Alabama’s case, Georgia in Tennessee’s) still in front of them.

Playoff speculation can resume in earnest ahead of the CFP committee’s first weekly rankings drop of the season on Oct. 31, which is Nick Saban’s birthday. Meanwhile, the loser is all but finished as a national player and faces an uphill battle in the conference standings. Projecting either team to surpass Georgia at this point might seem like a stretch, but given the expectations on both sides it’s awfully early to be bounced from contention before they’ve even had the chance.

The stat: 61.3%

That’s Alabama QB Jalen Milroe‘s completion percentage this season on attempts of 20+ yards, per Pro Football Focus, 4th-best nationally among quarterbacks with at least 10 attempts. For context, that’s a higher rate on downfield throws than Bryce Young (40.2%), Mac Jones (58.9%), Tua Tagovailoa (52.6%) or Jalen Hurts (33.7%) in any of their tenures as the Crimson Tide’s QB1 from 2016-22. In fact, through 6 games as a starter, Milroe has nearly as many completions on deep balls (19) as Young had all of last season (21).

Yeah, small sample size and all that. But for all of the red flags in Milroe’s still-developing game — inconsistency, reckless decision-making, a tendency to take too many sacks — the one asset that has never been in doubt is his ability to challenge secondaries deep. Especially for an offense that has struggled to establish the run, his knack for the big play significantly expands the margin for error elsewhere.

Surprisingly, the same can’t really be said at the moment for his Tennessee counterpart on Saturday, Joe Milton III, owner of the most turbo-charged right arm in the game.

Prior to the season, Milton was typically cast as a volatile, boom-or-bust type who offset his inconsistency with a surplus of downfield juice. The “inconsistent” part has borne out — he ranks in the bottom half of the conference in completion percentage, yards per attempt, and overall efficiency, and just posted by far his worst stat line of the season against Texas A&M. The explosive part has not. Milton ranks 16th in the SEC in completions that gained 20+ yards, dead last among quarterbacks who have started multiple games. On attempts of 20+ yards downfield, he’s a dismal 8-for-35 with more interceptions (4) than touchdowns (3), making him the league’s lowest-graded downfield passer per PFF by a wide margin.

The big question: Which offensive line holds up better in pass protection?

This game features 3 of the nation’s most productive edge rushers over the first half of the season: Alabama’s Dallas Turner and Chris Braswell on one side, and Tennessee’s James Pearce Jr. on the other. Turner and Braswell, both former 5-star recruits, inherited enormous expectations as the heirs apparent to Will Anderson Jr.; so far, they’ve justified the hype, generating a combined 64 QB pressures and 14 sacks in 7 games. (That number varies slightly from the official count because I’m counting half-sacks as a whole.)

Pearce, on the other hand, has genuinely come out of nowhere: A true sophomore who barely saw the field on defense in 2022, he’s turned a situational role off the bench into a springboard for nascent first-round buzz in 2025, boasting elite length, explosiveness, and production at 6-5, 242 pounds. PFF credits Pearce with 32 QB pressures and 7 sacks to date on just 116 pass-rushing snaps, and in the Vols’ past 2 wins over South Carolina and Texas A&M, he has been borderline unblockable.

Alabama’s o-line issues have been well-documented, especially at left tackle. The starter there, true freshman Kadyn Proctor, has been an easy target for criticism, allowing a team-worst 19 pressures and an SEC-worst 7 sacks in what has can only be described as a harsh initiation to big-time college football. Proctor was briefly benched last week against Arkansas but quickly returned to the lineup after his backup, junior Elijah Pritchett, was abused for 3 sacks on just a dozen pass-blocking snaps. The blind side was a glaring question mark in the preseason, and at midseason it’s no closer to being solved.

Regardless of who mans the left side, though, the assignment of handling Pearce will almost certainly fall to his counterpart on the right, junior JC Latham, who has responded to a shaky start by shutting out opposing pass rushers over the past 3 games. An aspiring first-rounder in his own right, the 6-6, 335-pound Latham presents a much bigger challenge (literally) than the still-inexperienced Pearce has faced up to this point. Their 1-on-1 collisions will have NFL scouts’ full attention.

The key matchup: Tennessee OL Cooper Mays vs. Alabama DL Tim Keenan III

Contrary to its airborne reputation, Tennessee has been more productive on the ground than through the air, ranking 6th nationally in rushing offense while averaging more than 250 yards in their 5 wins. Mays, who missed the first 4 games to injury, has been a huge asset in the past 2, returning to the starting center role just in time for the offense to begin to embrace its emerging smashmouth persona. Against Texas A&M, the Vols were at their best running right up the gut, churning out 88 yards on 5.5 per carry on A-gap runs, per PFF.

Uprooting Keenan will be a steeper task. A true nose tackle in the “War Daddy” tradition, the 6-2, 338-pounder combines the run-clogging heft you’d expect from a man his size with a surprisingly productive push as an interior pass rusher, generating 16 pressures and 2 sacks on the year (both coming against Texas A&M, in a dominant performance by Alabama’s front seven as a whole). Bama rotates a lot of bodies up front, but Keenan has the thankless job of absorbing double teams and keeping blockers from reaching the inside linebackers at the second level. As long as he holds his ground, running between the tackles promises to be tough sledding.

The verdict …

Anyone tuning in expecting a replay of last year’s shootout in Knoxville is in for a long afternoon. That game was one of the all-time greats, but Bryce Young and Hendon Hooker are not walking through that door. Both teams appear to have accepted the necessity of winning with defense and field position.

The X-factor is the Crimson Tide’s capacity for the big play. The offense is inconsistent when it comes to stringing together extended drives, but Milroe’s long-distance connection with Jermaine Burton has relieved them of some of that pressure over the past few weeks. Milton has yet to develop that kind of chemistry with any of his receivers except Bru McCoy, who’s out for the season with a broken ankle. The Vols figure to be more reliant on pounding out a living on the ground. Against Alabama’s defense, that has never been a winning proposition.
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Alabama 27 | • Tennessee 22

Ole Miss (-6.5) at Auburn

Ole Miss fans are not gaming out tiebreaker scenarios just yet, but with Alabama and LSU already in the rear view and the rest of the West on the downswing, it’s very tempting to look at the schedule and mentally sim through the next 3 games to their Nov. 11 trip to Georgia. Auburn this week and Vanderbilt next are decided underdogs; Texas A&M has to come to Oxford on Nov. 4 with speculation about Jimbo Fisher’s future running rampant. The Rebels only need to take care of business to set up their next big opportunity in Athens.

On that note, it would be much easier to take Auburn seriously as an upset threat if the notion of the Tigers completing passes against a defense with a pulse didn’t seem like a minor miracle. In 3 games vs. SEC opponents, they’re averaging a brutal 4.3 yards per attempt with 1 touchdown and an 87.6 efficiency rating — barely distinguishable from Iowa, the sport’s reigning offensive laughingstock. It’s one thing to put up those kinds of numbers opposite Iowa’s defense in a barren Big Ten West. Opposite Auburn’s defense in the SEC West, it’s a grim state of affairs.
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• Ole Miss 31 | Auburn 20

South Carolina at Missouri (-7)

Missouri’s offense finally descended from orbit in Week 7, coming in well below its season averages for total offense and yards per play against Kentucky. Which, in a way, made the Tigers’ 38-21 victory in Lexington that much more reassuring: Even on an off night for the headliners, Brady Cook and Luther Burden III, the defense and special teams came through, toppling a ranked opponent on the road with plenty of room to spare. Besides clinching bowl eligibility at 6-1, the win was a big step toward Mizzou asserting itself as not just a red-hot offense but a complete team.

South Carolina is going in the opposite direction. The Gamecocks’ Week 7 date against Florida was their best offensive outing yet, yielding season-highs for points (39), yards (465) and yards per play (7.4) against an FBS opponent — all for naught after the defense collapsed in the 4th quarter of a 41-39 defeat. At 2-4, Carolina ranks at or near the bottom of the conference in every major defensive category, ramping up the pressure on QB Spencer Rattler before the game even kicks off. Anything less than a prolific performance by Rattler and emerging wideout Xavier Legette on any given Saturday, and the Gamecocks’ goose is cooked.
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• Missouri 35 | South Carolina 26

Mississippi State at Arkansas (-5.5)

The Dogs and Hogs are a combined 0-7 in SEC play and desperate to salvage a path to bowl eligibility. For the winner in Fayetteville, that path still exists, however narrowly. (Arkansas, currently 2-5, would still have to win 3 of its last 4 in November following an open date.) For the loser, it may as well be the signal to begin looking ahead to 2024.

Predictably for this time of year, both teams are dealing with high-profile injuries. On the Razorbacks’ side, it’s looking increasingly likely that they’ve seen the last of RB Rocket Sanders this season, and possibly in an Arkansas uniform. A lingering knee injury has limited Sanders to 3 underwhelming appearances on the year, and will apparently sideline him again on Saturday, per coach Sam Pittman. Beyond this weekend, Pittman said he has “no idea” when or if his star back will return, leaving open the possibility that he’s done for the year. Frankly, the season is rapidly approaching the point where there’s hardly much left to return to. If Sanders plans to declare early for the NFL Draft, he’d arguably be risking more by attempting to play out the string than by simply letting his All-SEC campaign in 2022 stand on its own — especially if it meant playing at less than 100 percent.

The immediate outlook for Mississippi State QB Will Rogers is murkier. Rogers left the Bulldogs’ Week 6 win over Western Michigan with an apparent shoulder injury; coming off an open date, coach Zach Arnett has so far declined to elaborate on his status, telling reporters at his weekly Monday press conference that “every single guy on our roster is on a day-to-day evaluation.” (Aren’t we all?) If Rogers is ruled out, the next man up is Vanderbilt transfer Mike Wright, a veteran whose dual-threat skill set is pretty much the exact opposite of Rogers’. Both quarterbacks are seniors in their first season under offensive coordinator Kevin Barbay; that’s where the similarities end.
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Arkansas 29 | • Mississippi State 24

Army at LSU (-30.5)

You might recall reading over the offseason something about Army’s plans to abandon the triple-option, which was a little bit like hearing that a school of fish had announced plans to abandon the ocean. Coach Jeff Monken had his reasons: Stricter rules outlawing blocks below the waist in the open field; a potential recruiting edge over the other academies; a general feeling that it was time to bring the offense into the 21st Century. Still, Army has been defined by its obstinate brand of option football for decades, and the system has a well-earned reputation for being a pain in the butt to defend despite the inevitable talent deficit the Black Knights face in most of their games. More than any other system, the option isn’t so much a playbook as it is a lifestyle. Changing it means not only adapting to new footwork and techniques, but fundamentally rewiring the logic of the entire program.

As for the follow-through, well, just how much of a departure the new scheme actually represents in practice is in the eye of the beholder. Relatively speaking, the Black Knights have incorporated more shotgun, embraced more “spread” formations, and put the ball in the air more often — 16.2 times per game, about twice as many passes as they typically averaged over Monken’s first 9 seasons. (The last time they averaged double-digit attempts over a full season: 2013, the year before Monken arrived.) But that’s only relative to the previous baseline at Army.

Relative to the rest of the sport, the offense is still unmistakably a product of academy DNA. The Knights are still running the ball on about 75% of their total snaps, still decisively winning time of possession. Starting quarterback Bryson Daily has almost as many rushing yards (442, excluding sacks) as the top 3 running backs combined (452). (Daily is questionable to play Saturday due to an injury that knocked him out of last week’s 19-0 loss to Troy; if he can’t go, the job falls to true freshman Champ Harris.) They’ve altered some of the angles and evolved beyond the fullback dive as an every-down staple; otherwise, LSU can expect essentially the same clock-killing, grind-it-out approach as ever in slightly updated packaging.
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• LSU 45 | Army 13

Scoreboard

Week 7 record: 5-1 straight-up | 5-1 vs. spread
Season record: 38-9 straight-up | 22-25 vs. spread

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