By now, you’ve heard. Or if you haven’t, you’re about to hear.

It’s been 20 years since Tennessee won at Florida.

Twenty. Like, 2 full decades. Urban Meyer, Will Muschamp, Jim McElwain and Dan Mullen all contributed to that streak. Perhaps more telling is the Tennessee side, which watched Phillip Fulmer, Lane Kiffin, Derek Dooley, Butch Jones, Jeremy Pruitt and Josh Heupel all contribute to that streak.

The question is whether Heupel will be the one to end the streak. If not now, then when?

After all, the Vols are nearly a touchdown favorite on Saturday night. Florida is 4-8 vs. Power 5 competition under Billy Napier, and including 2021, Florida is coming off consecutive losing seasons for the first time since the Jimmy Carter administration.

But for whatever reason, the college football gods have always found a way to prevent Tennessee from coming out of The Swamp with a win.

So can that finally happen on Saturday night? Let’s dig into it with some thoughts and predict how it’ll shake out:

1. This is Joe Milton’s first start in a hostile atmosphere

At 23 years old, Milton will start in a hostile atmosphere for the first time in his college career. Well, unless you consider Vanderbilt “hostile” for a Tennessee team that had plenty of support that night in Nashville last year. Milton’s 3 road starts with Michigan in 2020 were all in front of empty stadiums.

So that begs the question — will the rocket-armed quarterback rise to the occasion back in his home state?

That, we don’t know. We do know that Saturday night will be different from anything Milton has experienced in his roller-coaster college career, and it’ll be different than when he came in late in the game for Hendon Hooker during a blowout loss to the Gators in 2021. We also know that if he struggles, there’s a good chunk of that Tennessee faithful that’ll be chomping at the bit to see more Nico Iamaleava.

This is a major fork in the road for Milton. If he looks like the preseason All-SEC quarterback that he was billed as, we can have realistic conversations about Tennessee hanging around the top 10. But if Milton is ineffective with overthrows and the offense sputters against an unproven Florida defense, Josh Heupel’s experiment will suffer a significant setback.

2. This Tennessee passing offense has been underwhelming so far. Will that continue?

Sorry, but that’s reality. Two passing plays of 40 yards, and 1 of them was a dump-off to McCallan Castles. The only big chunk downfield passing play came on a 41-yard pass to Ramel Keyton against Virginia, though that was after his costly drop earlier on a perfectly thrown 60-yarder. Mind you, Tennessee was No. 1 in America in that stat last year with 27 passes of 40 yards while the next-closest Power 5 team had 18. On top of that, the Vols are tied for last in the SEC with just 4 passes of 20 yards this season.

So do we think that was all just trying to keep things a bit basic before Florida? I suppose it’s possible, and if that switch is flipped in a major way, we’ll play the results. But at the same time, let’s not forget what Tennessee had to replace.

Hendon Hooker, AKA the best Vols quarterback since Peyton Manning.

Jalin Hyatt, AKA the Biletnikoff Award winner as the top receiver in America.

Cedric Tillman, AKA the outside receiver who had 95 catches for 1,420 yards and 14 touchdowns in his final 15 games.

Darnell Wright, AKA the offensive tackle who stonewalled Will Anderson and was selected with the No. 10 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft.

That’s major turnover. And yes, it’s perfectly fair to be optimistic that better days are ahead for the Vols’ passing game, but we’re seeing some of the signs that it wasn’t a given that this group was going to immediately take flight.

Will it take flight against a Florida pass defense that faced backup quarterbacks in Utah and an FCS signal-caller at home? It’s not a crazy thought. That’ll go back to the aforementioned Milton. Will we see  Heupel and Joey Halzle try and open things up with a big downfield shot early? That wasn’t the plan against Virginia, but in Milton’s lone road start in front of fans, he converted a 61-yard bomb to Hyatt on the opening series.

As great as the Vols’ rushing attack has looked so far, one would think some chunk plays in the passing game will be needed to pull out a win on the road.

3. One would think this will be the Montrell Johnson Jr.-Trevor Etienne show … right?

At times, Napier has gotten away from his top 2 backs. One of the criticisms of him as a play-caller during his first year-plus on the job is that he doesn’t stick with his best offensive weapon after a slow start. In a game like this, I have to think those 2 will be heavily involved.

Why? Think about the strengths of this Tennessee team so far.

One has been the play of James Pearce Jr. and Tyler Baron. They already have 3 sacks apiece. Their ability to generate pressure is a major weapon. This is exactly the type of play that would make Florida quarterback Graham Mertz a sitting duck:

A Florida offensive line that looked disastrous in pass protection against Utah would struggle if Napier opted for Mertz to do the heavy lifting. Plus, Napier should want to keep that Tennessee ground game off the field as much as possible. Florida’s defensive depth is a bit of a question mark. Limiting their possessions could be a deal-breaker down the stretch.

If you’re Florida, you have to make Tennessee play a 60-minute game in your stadium. Mixing up looks for Johnson and Etienne — even if they’re a liability in pass protection — should be the backbone of this offense against an experienced Tennessee defense.

4. A small sample size suggests these offenses will struggle on 3rd down

Remember the part where I said that Tennessee’s pass rush is darn good? Yeah, well it could tee off on 3rd down. The same could be true for Florida, at least based on what the 2-game sample size suggests.

Through Week 2, Tennessee (32%) and Florida (31.6%) rank No. 13 and No. 14, respectively, in the SEC in 3rd-down conversion percentage. Yikes. The crazy thing is the Gators were actually 5-for-6 on 3rd down against McNeese, but the 1-for-13 clip against Utah had a bigger say in that cumulative number. Tennessee, on the other hand, went just 3-for-12 on 3rd down against its FCS foe.

Meanwhile, Florida (21.7%) and Tennessee (27.8%) rank No. 3 and No. 5, respectively, in the SEC in opposing 3rd-down conversion percentage.

That’s not how you draw it up. Well, it’s not how you draw it up if you’re a fan of offensive football. I’d argue that through 2 weeks, defensive coordinators Tim Banks and Austin Armstrong have done an impressive job. It’s not just 3rd down, either. Florida is No. 21 in FBS with 4.1 yards/play allowed while Tennessee is up to No. 12 at 3.9 yards/play allowed. Those groups are clearly the strengths of their respective teams.

Don’t be surprised if the “under” 58.5 hits on Saturday night.

5. Billy Napier needs this one (but not because his job is on the line now)

I’ve got 31 million reasons Napier isn’t getting canned at season’s end, so let’s move past that.

But sooner or later, your best moment at Florida can’t be your debut. Period. At some point, you need that fan/public support. That angst will grow in a hurry. You can only preach patience for so long, and if your approval rating is at 15% heading into Year 3, it’s awfully challenging to turn that around.

Falling to 0-5 against your 4 biggest rivals wouldn’t do that, especially with 2 of those games coming in front of the home fans. If you’re Napier, you don’t want to become the first Florida coach to suffer consecutive losses to Tennessee since Ron Zook. With all due respect to Zook, you don’t want to be in the same company as the guy who lasted 3 years. That’s what Napier is trying to avoid.

Think about this, too. The last time that Florida beat a ranked SEC team (AP Poll) at home was the 2019 Auburn game. Now obviously, beating a preseason Playoff contender like Utah last year was a huge moment for the Florida faithful, but beating a quality team in SEC play is a different beast.

Beating Tennessee would be a win unlike any for Napier so far.

And a prediction … Florida 21, Tennessee 17

I know, I know. Tennessee fans are going to clown me for suggesting that the Vols could possibly lose at a place where they’ve done nothing but lose for the past 2 decades. I hear them loud and clear.

But I don’t believe the Vols’ offense will make enough plays in key spots. I question the passing game being able to move the sticks and what it’ll look like on 3rd-and-7. That’s where I think Armstrong’s defense will thrive, and where Milton will struggle. The Tennessee quarterback will throw his first interception since his arrival in Knoxville while Mertz plays the game manager role and avoids the costly turnover (on a night where he still takes 5 sacks).

Instead of this feeling like an obvious box for Heupel to check on his Tennessee bucket list, the house of horrors that is The Swamp resurfaces for the Vols. A game that’s sitting there for the taking goes to the home team.

Napier gets the win he desperately needed and Tennessee’s drought in Gainesville reaches 20 years.