Tennessee fans have grown accustomed to having a quality team over the last couple of decades, but the Vols have still never been able to reach the Final Four.

Getting to the Final Four — and ultimately winning the national title — is the last box the Vols need to check to prove their status as a top program in the modern era.

Over the last 17 NCAA Tournaments (since Bruce Pearl’s first season in Knoxville), the Vols have made the Field of 68 12 times. They’ve advanced in the Tournament in 9 of those instances and reached the Sweet 16 or Elite Eight 6 times. There aren’t many programs who have consistently out-performed the Vols in March over the past 2 decades.

And yet, Tennessee does not have a single Final Four during that span — or in any of its previous decades of existence.

That could — and maybe should — change this season.

Tennessee represents a somewhat rare case where possession-based ratings such as KenPom and BartTorvik are in alignment with traditional ideas (or clichés) to describe what a Final Four-calibre team looks like.

The statistical case

First, the statistical case: Tennessee has been elite on both sides of the ball on a possession-by-possession basis this season. The Vols rank 20th on offense and 3rd on defense in KenPom’s opponent-adjusted ratings for the full season. Tennessee is 1 of just 6 programs who rank in the top-20 in both categories to this point in the year.

Offensively, Tennessee makes its money by squeezing every bit of value out of its opportunities. The Vols are one of the best teams in the country at limiting non-steal turnovers (4th nationally per KenPom) and are above average nationally in virtually every efficiency metric, ranging from effective field goal percentage to offensive rebounding rate to 3-point percentage.

Defensively, the Vols are suffocating from all over the court. They are 2nd nationally in effective field goal percentage defense and 19th in block rate. But the most important element of their defense is at the 3-point line. Tennessee gives up a ton of 3-point attempts — per KenPom, their 3-point attempt defense rate of 41.5% ranks outside of the top 300 nationally. But opponents are not getting much fruit from those long-range tries, as Tennessee gives up a 3-point percentage of just 30.6% (19th nationally).

Tennessee also appears to be peaking at the right time. The Vols have won 7 in a row and 9 of their last 10 games since the beginning of February. They’ve played a tough schedule that includes 6 games against NCAA Tournament hopefuls over that span. They’ve also won 5 SEC road games over that stretch.

There aren’t any metrics-based red flags to worry about either. ShotQuality sees the Vols has a team that has essentially matched its expected win/loss record this season. EvanMiya’s new relative ratings shows Tennessee as team that performs virtually the same against elite teams as it does vs. bad teams (opposed to Alabama, which is drastically-better against bottom-dwellers). The Vols have also been excellent as the regular season winds to a close — since Feb. 1, BartTorvik rates Tennessee as the 3rd best team in the entire country behind only UConn and Arizona.

Tennessee is currently +300 to make the Final Four at ESPN Bet. That appears to be a fair price considering BartTorvik’s TourneyCast model gives the Vols a 25.5% chance of getting there. If you want to bet on that prop, here’s more information about Saturday Down South’s recommended Tennessee sports betting apps.

The intangibles case

From a traditional narrative perspective, Tennessee fits the mold of a Final Four team in just about every possible way.

As noted above, Tennessee is one of the best defensive teams in the country.

The Vols have an elite perimeter player — often thought to be a key ingredient in a title contender — in Dalton Knecht. Knecht is comfortable in isolation situations or running around screens to get open. He’s also big and physical enough to get to his spots in the paint, meaning there’s not much opposing defenses can do to stop him. Perhaps Knecht’s most important attribute as it relates to Tennessee’s Final Four chances is his malleability. He’s shown he can be a high-volume shooter (29 points on 20 shots per game from Jan. 10 through Feb. 7) or a hyper-efficient marksman who makes sure to get his teammates involved too (22 points on 16 shots per game from Feb. 10 through March 6). Tennessee has consistently won games regardless of Knecht’s usage rate, and his ability to glide between those roles should serve his team well deep into March.

Tennessee also gets good guard play from Zakai Zeigler and Santiago Vescovi. Zeigler and Vescovi are both efficient offensive players who are capable of big performances in support of Knecht on the perimeter. Zeigler is averaging a career-high in assists per game (5.9 per game) and scoring efficiency (54.8% true shooting percentage). Vescovi’s role has been diminished this year with Knecht taking a large portion of the usage, but he’s been excellent as a shooter over the second half of the season. He’s making over 39% of his 3-point attempts since Jan. 20.

Tennessee is loaded with experience. The Vols, to their credit, rank 27th nationally in KenPom’s D-1 experience metric — that’s not an easy bar to clear in the transfer portal era. Amongst other reasonable title contenders, only North Carolina, Creighton, Illinois and Kansas have more experience than the Vols. Tennessee also ranks significantly higher in minutes continuity (another KenPom metric) than the Tar Heels, Illini or Jayhawks.

Tennessee is battle-tested. The Vols are 8-5 in Quad 1 games, with 4 of those wins coming away from home. Tennessee has won 3 straight Quad 1 games going into Saturday’s regular-season finale against Kentucky.

There’s still a lot of work to be done. Tennessee will be the No. 1 seed in the SEC Tournament next week, and will need to perform well in that event to earn a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament (which would also be a first in program history). But Tennessee looks the part of a Final Four team and is within striking distance of accomplishing what no other Vols team has done before.

March Madness is right around the corner! Make sure you’re signed up with one of Saturday Down South’s top-ranked online sportsbook apps so you don’t miss out on any action during the NCAA Tournament!