I picked Arkansas to go 9-3 this season and finish third in the West. Even after blowing out FAMU 49-7 on Thursday, that decision could really come back to haunt me.

Clearly, I put a lot of faith in quarterback Austin Allen. After leading the SEC in passing yards last year as a junior, I expected even bigger and better things from him as a senior. In terms of the pure passers, he may be the league’s best.

But Allen was far from electrifying in the opener, completing 14-of-19 throws for 135 yards with 1 touchdown and 1 interception. He made a lot of the same errors he did periodically in 2016 — holding on to the ball too long, taking big hits, forcing passes into coverage — as a first-year starter. And the Rattlers were a lowly MEAC foe.

Not only did his receivers fail to make plays for him, but his offensive line was leaky again here and there in protection.

Frankly, it was a miracle that Allen survived a season ago and started all 13 games. Credit him for being tough and continually picking himself up off the turf, but he needs to develop some sort of internal clock and pull the trigger faster.

On his INT, Allen made an awful decision and fired to a target who was well covered. Compounding the problem, new left tackle Colton Jackson — he’s taking over for departed senior Dan Skipper, who somehow was first-team All-SEC this past year — was beaten badly by a FAMU pass rusher who won’t get anywhere near the NFL.

While Allen distributed the pigskin to nine different pass catchers, only wideout Jarrod Barnes had a gain longer than 16 yards.

Fortunately, the Razorbacks had a ton of success on the ground. Even with the departure of leading rusher Rawleigh Williams III, who was forced to walk away from the game due to neck concerns, the tailback position appears to be deep and dangerous.

Arkansas only had the No. 10 rushing offense in the conference last season, so this looked more like a Bret Bielema-coached team.

First up was starter Devwah Whaley. He ran for a workman-like 60 yards on 12 carries and scored the first TD of the year for the Hogs. Next was Chase Hayden (below). In his first game at the collegiate level, he recorded 120 yards and a score — replay review upheld a commendable second effort — on 14 attempts. South Carolina transfer David Williams found the end zone twice, too.

Arkansas only had the No. 10 rushing offense in the conference last season, so this looked more like a Bret Bielema-coached team.

Still, it was a disappointing start to 2017 for Allen. For anyone who will wake up Sunday morning and simply read the box score, the statistics themselves could be fairly deceiving. Make no mistake about it, though. The offense was shaky.

That being said, on the other side of the ball, the Razorbacks should be very encouraged. The early returns for Bielema’s scheme change from the 4-3 to the 3-4 — this unit finished tied for 12th and 10th in points allowed per game in 2015-16 — are assuredly positive. They routinely confused Florida A&M with various pass-rushing packages.

Credit: Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports

The only points surrendered by the Hogs came midway through the fourth quarter and required a 26-yard gain on a fake punt to keep the Rattlers’ drive alive.

Inferior opponent or not, Arkansas gave up just 80 yards on the ground and 95 through the air. FAMU averaged a paltry 2.6 yards per rush and 3.3 per pass. As a matter of fact, it didn’t cross midfield until the 7:46 mark of the third quarter.

"I like it. I think they're communicating well. They've given us a few wrinkles, obviously a change in quarterback, so our guys adjusted to that. I think our defense is playing well." -- Bret Bielema

Still, there was some bad news. Cornerback Ryan Pulley, one of the most underrated defenders in the league and the Razorbacks’ top cover man, left the game in the second quarter with a strained pectoral muscle. With TCU — the Horned Frogs tend to take to the air liberally — scheduled for Week 2, that’s a big blow if he’s sidelined for a while.

But overall, Bielema was pleased. It was a refreshing change from last year, when the Hogs were slaughtered for 426.6 yards per game.

“I like it,” he told SEC Network sideline reporter Cole Cubelic at halftime. “I think they’re communicating well. They’ve given us a few wrinkles, obviously a change in quarterback, so our guys adjusted to that. I think our defense is playing well.”

A potential stud on the horizon is defensive end McTelvin Agim, who is the lone 5-star recruit that Bielema has landed throughout his five-year tenure in Fayetteville. He lined up at several spots and got penetration on a regular basis.

Essentially, the script was flipped for Bielema and Co. One would’ve expected the offense — particularly the passing game — to do most of the heavy lifting at War Memorial Stadium in Little Rock. Instead, Allen was less than sharp. He was largely bailed out by a running game with fresh faces and a defense with a fresh approach.

Bielema is smart enough to know that a six-touchdown victory over an overmatched Florida A&M club is nothing to brag about right now.

“Offensively, especially on third down, we’ve got to wake up,” he said. “Guys got to make plays. It’s not just dropping a pass on third down. It’s changing a possession, so some good learning moments.”

Nevertheless, if there’s one player on the roster capable of elevating his game in nine days, it’s Allen. The TCU tilt isn’t solely important in the win-loss column, but it’s crucial from a recruiting perspective. The Lone Star State is up for grabs.

But Allen can’t hit the replay button from 2016 and expect to have the same results. Remember, there’s much more tape on him — there was hardly any a year ago — for opponents to study. Even last season, he was measurably more effective in September than November. He’s not going to catch anyone off guard these days and needs to make a few adjustments quickly.

The Hogs are now 1-0 and one step closer to the 9-3 record I predicted, yet the squad we saw tonight won’t win eight more times.