I hate to pour a bucket of ice water on the fire that is SEC basketball right now. I really do.

You see, it’s been fun to watch the rise of the conference. Seeing fans of traditionally football schools care about basketball instead of completely turning to spring practices isn’t such a bad thing. Putting 15 teams in the NCAA Tournament in a 2-year is no joke. It’s a sign that the conference is no longer Kentucky and everyone else.

Shoot, Kentucky probably isn’t even the most likely to make a run to the national championship. That title belongs to veteran-laden Tennessee, which seems to have a solid identity for a tournament team. Few teams would be more entertaining to watch go all the way. There’d be viral moments of Grant Williams and Admiral Schofield, both of whom have been faces of one of the easiest teams to root for in recent memory.

But now, sadly, here comes the bucket of ice water.

As solid of a year as its been for the SEC, I don’t see the conference’s title drought ending this year. Not with what Kentucky, Tennessee or really anyone else would likely have to face to get there.

And by the way, it is officially a drought. It’s been 7 years since an SEC team (2012 Kentucky) cut down the nets. Like, the national championship nets. Not the “we won our regional” nets. The SEC accomplished that feat plenty of times from 2013-18. Four, to be exact. Big deal. That’s not much of a feat when you break down the Final Four appearances by conference the past 6 tournaments:

  • ACC — 5
  • Big Ten — 5
  • Big East — 4
  • SEC — 4
  • Big 12 — 2
  • Missouri Valley — 2
  • The American — 1
  • West Coast Conference — 1
  • Pac-12 — 1

The one national title runner-up appearance by an SEC team during that stretch was that 2014 Kentucky team, which made it as an 8-seed but couldn’t make a shot in the final against UConn.

That’s my way of saying, when the lights have been shining bright on SEC teams the past 6 years, it hasn’t gone well. That’s not to say 2019 will definitely be more of the same. I just wouldn’t bet on that changing. I’d bet on Tennessee or Kentucky making a run to the Final Four, but winning it all? Even that seems like a slight reach.

When push comes to shove and Tennessee has to slow down a team like Duke or UNC, will they really be able to do it? That, I find myself questioning more after watching their late-season defensive struggles. As much as I love the balance and unselfish identity of Rick Barnes’ team, I question if they’d be able to get enough stops to take down multiple teams as skilled as that en route to a title.

Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

As for Kentucky, I get that the Cats played extremely well down the stretch. I wouldn’t be surprised if they made another Final Four run. But I still question some of the late-game execution.

I’m not sure if Kentucky has found their “go get me a bucket” guy yet. Maybe it’s Tyler Herro going isolation? Perhaps P.J. Washington is OK and can carve out some space to create a high-percentage shot? I don’t know. But I do know that this is a young Kentucky team, and that it isn’t good enough to blow out every team. Those late-game moments are going to come, just like they did against Tennessee.

Will the Cats again fall victim to a team that plays like it wants it more? Possibly. And maybe it hasn’t been that, though I find it hard to trust John Calipari’s teams to figure it out when shots aren’t falling. Tennessee is different in that regard (see Williams, Grant or Schofield, Admiral).

What about the rest of the SEC, you ask? Why can’t someone like Auburn pull a 2014 UConn and win it all as a 7-seed? Well, that was the only team in the past 20 years that was seeded worse than a No. 3 seed to win it all. And no offense to LSU, but the last thing I’m doing is penciling in the Tigers to win it all without Will Wade.

Starting to see what I’m getting at?

This might sound obvious, but it’s extremely difficult to win a national title even for all-time great coaches. Just because a conference has a solid year doesn’t mean it’ll yield a national title. Does it help? Sure, but this is about having a truly elite team. And more times than not, that’s not even enough (2015 Kentucky ring a bell?).

For one reason or another, the SEC only has the one national title since Florida repeated in 2006-07. That 2012 Kentucky team, as we knew then, was special. That’s usually what it takes to cut down the nets in March.

Again, the real nets that are worth cutting down.

It takes the right blend of talent, skill and chemistry to make that happen. And sure, there’s a little luck involved. Maybe an SEC team does have that, and we’ll see it the next 3 weeks.

But if there’s a take burning that this is the year the SEC ends its title drought, I’ve got my bucket of ice water ready.