Each week, college football insider Matt Hayes tackles the biggest topics in the game, in and around the SEC:

Georgia’s worst-case scenario

Follow along here, because it’s more feasible than you think. A 12-0 Georgia team that loses to 1-loss Alabama in the SEC Championship Game might not make the Playoff.

How it happens:

— 1-loss Alabama is in.

— An unbeaten (Michigan State) or 1-loss Big Ten champion (Michigan State, Michigan or Ohio State) is in.

— Unbeaten Oklahoma is in.

— 1-loss Oregon has a better win (Ohio State on the road), and a comparable résumé.

— Unbeaten Wake Forest. No unbeaten Power 5 team has ever been left out of the Playoff.

Another problem for Georgia is its résumé, which appears to have one strong win (Auburn) and a lot of solid-to-average wins (Kentucky, Florida, Arkansas, Clemson).

The odds of the aforementioned scenario playing out are slim, but all we need is an unbeaten or 1-loss Big Ten champ and either OU or Wake unbeaten, and things get very dicey for the 1-loss Dawgs on Sunday morning after Championship Saturday if Oregon wins out.

All of that, of course, doesn’t include Cincinnati — and how the Playoff committee deals with the likely unbeaten Bearcats.

12 or 8 from 4?

The College Football Playoff management committee met this week, and the sides are clearly drawn amid a group of the sport’s leaders that can’t trust one another.

They’re about a billion dollars a year apart.

The alliance of the Big Ten, Pac-12 and ACC prefer an 8-team Playoff, a move that would prohibit college football from cashing in on expanding its postseason.

The SEC, Big 12 and Notre Dame want a 12-team Playoff, a move that could fetch as much as $1 billion a year. Each of the Autonomous 5 conferences (Power 5 conferences) and Notre Dame have an equal vote.

The Group of 5 conferences will agree to whatever the A5 and Notre Dame propose as long as it means G5 inclusion, and the vote on any change to the Playoff must be unanimous.

The group likely will meet again next week and again try to iron out postseason plans.

One television industry source told me the stance by the alliance is tantamount to “fiscal irresponsibility.”

“It’s unthinkable arrogance or stupidity or both,” the industry source said.

ESPN owns broadcast rights to the CFP, which is a total of 7 games: the 3 Playoff games, and the 4 New Year’s 6 bowl games.

A move to an 8-team Playoff is still 7 games – 4 quarterfinals, 2 semifinals, 1 final – and ESPN isn’t going to offer more money for the same number of games.

One Power 5 AD told me this week, “I wouldn’t be shocked if (the Playoff) stayed at four (teams). Neither of the sides is moving. If there’s no movement, it’s status quo.”

A 12-team Playoff would allow the CFP to be in a position of power in negotiations with ESPN. In that scenario, the CFP – which would like the format change by 2024 or sooner – could tell ESPN they can renegotiate the contract exclusively and then demand as much as $1 billion a season.

If ESPN doesn’t want to renegotiate, the CFP can wait until the end of the original deal (the end of the 2025 season) and open negotiations with network, cable and streaming sites. Time is on the CFP’s side, and another industry source said, “ESPN will never let it get to the open market.”

The alliance, though, can stand and force negotiations for the second Playoff contract (after the 2025 season). In that stance, they believe they can get more money for the 8-team Playoff (7 total games) than previously.

“They’re still not getting anywhere near what we could with 12 (teams),” a Big 12 AD told me. “It’s incredibly shortsighted for the future financial health of all our universities – and for the health of our sport.”

Taking their shots

Nick Saban lost to a former assistant coach last month, the first such loss in 25 career games.

It might happen again before the end of the season.

Look at the first College Football Playoff rankings. The top 4 teams are all coached by Saban or his assistants:

— No. 1 Georgia (Kirby Smart, with Saban at LSU and Alabama).

— No. 3 Michigan State (Mel Tucker with Saban at Michigan State, LSU and Alabama).

— No. 4 Oregon (Mario Cristobal with Saban at Alabama).

No. 2 Alabama could win out and win the national title, and Saban could improve on his 24-1 record vs. his former assistants.

He could also lose to Smart in the SEC Championship Game, or Tucker or Cristobal in the Playoff. The best chance, though, is Smart, who could conceivably get two shots at Saban.

Unless something catastrophic happens, Georgia will be 12-0 heading into the SEC Championship Game and will have all but locked up a CFP spot. A loss to 1-loss Alabama would then likely (see above) put both SEC teams in the Playoff and give Smart another chance to beat Saban.

Just wins, baby

Wins are a coach’s greatest ally. Dan Mullen needs wins. Now.

Florida’s inexplicable losses this season (LSU, Kentucky), and Mullen’s continued struggles in recruiting (Gators have 1 commitment among the top 25 players in the state of Florida, and 5 in the top 50, per 247Sports) have overshadowed 3 strong seasons to begin his Florida tenure – and aimed criticism directly at this underachieving season.

The Gators will be heavy favorites to win out over the remaining 4 games (at South Carolina, at Missouri, Samford, Florida State), but another loss could force the Florida administration to look at Mullen through a different lens.

Another 2 losses – with one coming to floundering rival FSU at home – and December could get ugly in Gainesville.

Mullen proponents point to a natural dip with a new quarterback and a revamped receiving corps.

Mullen critics point to Mullen retaining embattled defensive coordinator Todd Grantham, and the reality that after 4 years, this is the team Mullen recruited. And recruiting isn’t getting better.

Mullen needs wins. That begins Saturday at South Carolina, a double-digit underdog that has no business being within 20-plus points of Florida.

Lose to the Gamecocks, and Mullen will lose a majority of the Florida fan base. And that’s a bad place to be.