OK, enough hedging the bets, time to go out on a limb and probably snap it off. Today’s SEC Tournament quarterfinals seem to present 3 pretty easy picks and a competitive 2nd game. But if Vandy, Florida, and SEC history teach us anything, it’s that things don’t work out the way they’re expected or even the way they start. Somebody that most of us expect to be in a semifinal on Saturday probably won’t be. But who?

Game 1: Auburn vs. Texas A&M

This one looks all Auburn. The Tigers won the head-to-head a month ago by 17 points. Auburn took the Aggies entirely out of their element, beating them on the board (+13) and disrupting their perimeter shooting (3-for-22 from 3). But that game was in the 8-game losing streak that has A&M still sitting on the NCAA bubble.

Since then? The Aggies have won 6 of 7, including a pair of wins over Florida and a 16-point beating of Alabama in Tuscaloosa. Meanwhile, Auburn is just 4-2 since that game, and has looked surprisingly vulnerable. So does this game deserve re-examination?

The Aggies have to win to make the NCAA Tournament. If they do, they’re probably in. But the motivational chip is probably overrated. It’s March — nobody’s going through the motions, or if they were, their season ended Wednesday night. A&M’s late run has been tied to offensive efficiency, but if Auburn is right, they’ll take the Aggies out of their offense again.

A&M might bring the fight early, but in the end, Auburn pulls away and wins by around a dozen.

Game 2: LSU vs. Arkansas

This is the one that we all have circled. Two NCAA Tournament-bound teams, with Arkansas going for the season 3-peat and LSU having given the Hogs all they wanted in their last game.

For LSU, the reasons for hope are obvious. Tari Eason was great Thursday and the last time LSU met Arkansas, Eason had 24 points and 7 rebounds … in 18 minutes of play. Now, he played 18 minutes because he fouled out, which let Arkansas come back and grab the game. But Eason is absolutely key to this game.

For Arkansas, they’ve managed to hold off the Tigers twice. They did it the second time despite a poor game from JD Notae. Jaylin Williams might be their focal point. He had 19 and 10 in the close game in Fayetteville, despite also fouling out.

What does it all mean? It means it probably comes down to Williams jumping in front of Eason a couple of fast breaks. Like a block/charge call, it’s a 50/50 proposition. But Williams wins a lot of those, so give a slight edge to the Razorbacks. It’s that close.

Game 3: Mississippi State vs. Tennessee

Tennessee is a clear favorite and with good reason. The Vols have enough talent to win this title and make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament. So why could Mississippi State pull this off?

Well, Tennessee is built around a somewhat questionable offense. Their last 2 losses? The Vols scored 48 and 51 points. Hold Tennessee under 39% shooting and the Vols are 4-6. That means the Vols are 19-1 when they shoot 39% or better (the only loss there is the game when Kentucky scored 107 on UT).

So how did State win on Thursday? They held Carolina to 28.3% shooting. Combine that with a big game from Tolu Smith, who had 20 points and 12 boards, and State could certainly make things interesting for the Vols.

Look, the Tennessee offense could be sharp and this game could be over at halftime. But there is some precedent for the Vols struggling on offense, and as shown above, when that happens, the Vols go from world-beaters to pretty beatable. So this is the upset pick. State wins a grinder.

Game 4: Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt

Kentucky may have been expecting Alabama, but the Commodores took care of that with an impressive second-half run that turned a 15-point deficit into a victory. Now, Kentucky has to avoid falling victim to the same fate.

Vandy’s biggest asset has to be Scotty Pippen, Jr., who had 65 points in his 2 meetings with Kentucky. Pippen also shot 21 (yes, 21) free throws last night to best Alabama. UK has only allowed teams to shoot more than 21 free throws 7 times this season, and the Wildcats are just 4-3 in those games.

Kentucky’s advantage is that even with Pippen going off, the Wildcats have handled Vandy twice. The first game was played without Sahvir Wheeler, who had been injured in the LSU game, and he only had 3 points in the second meeting.

Pippen could do some all-world things and make this interesting. But the thought here is that he probably won’t. Kentucky might have some fits and starts, but the Wildcats win by 10.