Alabama vs. UConn preview: Player prop bet picks

Alabama gets its shot at the champs on Saturday, and should the Crimson Tide manage to pull off an upset, a spot in the national championship awaits.

The Final Four is here. After a mostly chalky start to the NCAA Tournament, the field is left with a pair of dominant 1-seeds, a true Cinderella 11-seed that refuses to go down, and a 4-seed that can short-circuit any scoreboard in sight.

Alabama (25-11) and UConn (35-3) face off in the nightcap at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. The winner moves on to the championship game, where they’ll face either Purdue or NC State.

1 UConn vs. 4 Alabama | 8:49 p.m. | TBS | Glendale, Arizona

Spread: UConn -11.5 (via BetMGM)
Total: 160.5 (via BetMGM)

UConn has gotten to this moment with sheer force. The Huskies have outscored their previous 4 opponents by 45.1 points per 100 possessions. UConn’s nation-leading offense (126.7 adjusted rating, KenPom) grabs the headline but the defense in the tournament has been sensational.

You’d hardly know that, since the first-round blasting of Stetson, UConn is shooting just 25% from 3-point range. Opponents have posted a paltry offensive rating of 81.4 in the 4 tournament games against UConn.

For Alabama, there’s value in trying to turn this into a run-and-gun, high-possession basketball game. The Crimson Tide have scored at least 89 points in 3 of their 4 NCAA Tournament games thus far. Offense has never been the issue for Nate Oats’ group, and generating as many cracks as possible against the Huskies’ defense seems to be the way Oats wants to run this.

“We’re gonna try to run them,” Oats said Monday on his radio show. “The higher scoring the game, I think the better off we are.”

Prior to this point, UConn has played 10 games against a top-25 offense (per KenPom). Opponents in those 10 games averaged 65.7 points per game and only 4 of them featured a points-per-possession clip north of 1.

North Carolina scored 1.101 points per possession against the Huskies on Dec. 5. Creighton scored 1.466 per possession in its Feb. 20 win over UConn. St. John’s did it twice. UConn won 3 of the 4 games.

Alabama will look to avoid the same fate that befell Illinois (No. 4 offense, per KenPom) in the Elite Eight. UConn embarked on a 30-0 run that completely unraveled the Illini. Terrence Shannon Jr. — capable of dropping 30 every time he steps on the court — was limited to 8 points on 2-of-12 shooting and the Illini as a team were held to 25% from the field.

They missed 17 of their 23 attempts from 3-point range and 22 of their 30 non-dunk attempts at the rim.

So far this season, 89% of Alabama’s shot attempts have come from either beyond the 3-point line or at the rim. UConn’s defense is punctuated by Donovan Clingan, a 7-footer who had 8 blocks in the second-round win over Northwestern and 5 in the Elite Eight victory over Illinois.

Husky opponents this season have gotten 52% of their points from 2 and just 28% of their points from 3. Clingan averages 6.7 blocks per 40 minutes. Illinois’s undoing was in its repeated attempts to challenge Clingan and its refusal to switch up.

A fully healthy Alabama rotation can try to stretch UConn. Latrell Wrightsell Jr. — a 6-foot-3 guard from Omaha who makes 44% of his 3s — is set to return for this game after missing the previous 2 with a head injury.

“I feel good. I’m 100% this weekend. I’ll play,” Wrightsell said Thursday.

Added Oats: “We’re getting healthy, we’ll be ready.”

Before getting to the props, here are some advanced metrics from KenPom to consider:

Opponent-adjusted offensive efficiency

Alabama: 125.8 (3rd)
UConn: 126.7 (1st)

Opponent-adjusted defensive efficiency

Alabama: 102.6 (105th)
UConn: 91.5 (4th)

Opponent-adjusted tempo

Alabama: 72.8 possessions (9th)
UConn: 65.0 possessions (315th)

With that, here are 3 player props for the game:

Alabama G Rylan Griffen over 11.5 points (-105 via FanDuel)

Griffen played 20 minutes in the first-round win over Charleston, and he scored 9 points. In the 3 games since, he has played 30, 29, and 33 minutes while averaging 15 points a game. He had 13 and 8 in the win over Clemson, and he knocked down 5 triples in the win over North Carolina. The 6-foot-5 guard has become incredibly important to Alabama’s offensive operation, especially over the back half of the season as coach Nate Oats has leaned into a true small-ball approach with Griffen at the 4.

Alabama plans to run. And the best path forward is to utilize their quickness around the floor with that small-ball, 5-out look. Most seem to agree that for Alabama to have any hope of beating the Huskies, they’re going to need to let it fly with reckless abandon from 3. Griffen has at least 6 attempts from deep in each of his last 3 games and at least 2 makes in each. He’ll be an important part of the gameplan.

Alabama G Mark Sears over 21.5 points (+138 via FanDuel)

After ceding the spotlight late in the win over North Carolina, Sears got back to his sharpshooting ways against Clemson by burying 7 of his 14 3-pointers to score 23 points. The 18-point showing in the Sweet 16 broke a streak of 8 consecutive games with at least 20 points. He scored 56 total points and knocked down 8 combined 3s in Alabama’s first 2 tournament games.

If the Crimson Tide have any hope of upsetting UConn, Sears has to have a big game. Alabama has a vested interest in getting him rolling early and often. Against UConn’s drop coverage, getting Sears hot right away can help to open up those around him. I expect the star guard to come out of the gates aggressively.

UConn G Tristen Newton to record a triple-double (+2000 via DraftKings)

The 6-5 senior guard has 4 career triple-doubles and 12 career games with at least 10 rebounds. He has at least 10 assists in 4 of his last 11 games. An 0-for-6 showing against Illinois led to Newton’s first single-digit scoring game since Feb. 10. He was also one of the highest-usage players in the Big East this season.

This is a longshot, but Newton should see a ton of minutes and this game should feature a ton of possessions. With Alabama’s 3-point tendency, long rebounds and transition opportunities should be aplenty for the Huskies. That would be playing a bit to the tempo Alabama wants, but UConn shouldn’t be concerned about going toe-for-toe with a team it feels is its inferior. Points shouldn’t be tough to come by. If UConn can recapture some form from 3, Newton can clear the assists, too. Rebounding will be the swing piece here.