ESPN’s FPI has game-by-game predictions for all 12 games on Alabama’s regular season schedule.

The model has the Crimson Tide favored in every contest for the 2023 season. However, 2 games are projected to be closer than the others. Alabama has less than a 75% chance to defeat Texas and LSU, according to FPI.

Both of those games will be played in Tuscaloosa, which could ultimately be an advantage for the Crimson Tide. Alabama’s toughest road game on the schedule, per FPI, will be against Texas A&M. FPI gives Alabama a 79% chance of winning that game.

Here are FPI’s game-by-game projections, along with the model’s percentage chance of Alabama winning each game:

  • Sept. 2 vs. Middle Tennessee — 98.9%
  • Sept. 9 vs. Texas — 73.3%
  • Sept. 16 at South Florida — 97.8%
  • Sept. 23 vs. Ole Miss — 86.9%
  • Sept. 30 at Mississippi State — 87.9%
  • Oct. 7 at Texas A&M — 79%
  • Oct. 14 vs. Arkansas — 91.7%
  • Oct. 21 vs. Tennessee — 84.8%
  • Nov. 4 vs. LSU — 72.9%
  • Nov. 11 at Kentucky — 84.2%
  • Nov. 18 vs. Chattanooga — 99%
  • Nov. 25 at Auburn — 88.9%

FPI also gives Alabama a 15.3% chance of going undefeated this season. Its chances to win the National Championship sit at 18.7%. Alabama is also 1 of 2 SEC teams (Georgia) with a greater-than 50% chance of making the College Football Playoff.

If you want to get in on the action and bet on Alabama this season, ESPN Bet is expected to launch this fall.

Alabama’s season-opener against Middle Tennessee will kick off at 7:30 p.m. ET on Sept. 2.