Three games remain in the 2023-24 college basketball season. The potential for 2 wild, highly entertaining matchups in Glendale, Arizona is off the charts.

Top seeds Purdue and UConn are 1 step away from what would be an epic national title clash. Standing in the way are 4-seed Alabama and 11-seed NC State. The Wolfpack face Purdue at 6:09 p.m. ET on TBS, then the Huskies take on the Crimson Tide at 8:49 p.m. ET.

Ahead of the Final Four, here are 4 bets for the day. Staff picks against the spread can be found here.

Alabama G Rylan Griffen over 11.5 points (-105 via FanDuel)

Griffen played 20 minutes in the first-round win over Charleston, and he scored 9 points. In the 3 games since, he has played 30, 29, and 33 minutes while averaging 15 points a game. He had 13 and 8 in the win over Clemson, and he knocked down 5 triples in the win over North Carolina. The 6-foot-5 guard has become incredibly important to Alabama’s offensive operation, especially over the back half of the season as coach Nate Oats has leaned into a true small-ball approach with Griffen at the 4.

Alabama plans to run. And the best path forward is to utilize their quickness around the floor with that small-ball, 5-out look. Most seem to agree that for Alabama to have any hope of beating the Huskies, they’re going to need to let it fly with reckless abandon from 3. Griffen has at least 6 attempts from deep in each of his last 3 games and at least 2 makes in each. He’ll be an important part of the gameplan.

UConn-Alabama first-half total over 76.5 (-118 via FanDuel)

With Alabama’s style — run in transition, attack the rim, bomb away from 3-point range — points are abundantly available. Overs have hit 27 times this season and in 13 of Alabama’s last 15 games. The Crimson Tide’s first 4 NCAA Tournament games have featured an average of 80 total first-half points. Meanwhile, UConn has jumped out to huge leads in the first half so far this tournament. The Huskies are averaging 40 points per game in the first half through their first 4 NCAA games and 81 points per game overall.

Purdue F Mason Gillis over 1.5 3-pointers (-105 via DraftKings)

NC State’s DJ Burns might be able to keep on keeping on when the Pack are on offense, but when Purdue brings the ball up the floor and puts Zach Edey in ball screen action after ball screen action after ball screen action, Burns is going to get eaten alive. The move for NC State coach Kevin Keatts might be to hide Burns on Trey Kaufmann-Renn.

Which is where Gillis comes into play. The Sixth Man of the Year in the Big Ten, Gillis plays 20 minutes off the bench as a space-the-floor 4 for the Boilermakers. If Burns is going to hide on Kaufmann-Renn, the natural check would be to swap in Gillis and force Burns back to Edey. He won’t be able to sit with Gillis on the perimeter, and if he does, Gillis will have some open 3-point opportunities.

If Purdue can attack Burns with Edey, it can try to get the Wolfpack’s most important offensive player in foul trouble or force help and spray to shooters. Hello, Gillis… again. I like the odds here for a player who has knocked down at least 2 triples in 9 of his last 11 games.

Purdue-NC State total over 146.5 (-110 via ESPN BET)

BartTorvik projects 151 points in this game. KenPom projects 152 points. NC State’s offense can do some things to take advantage of Edey’s lack of mobility — Burns’ passing is genuinely brilliant. And Purdue can do some things to punish NC State’s deficiencies defending inside.

Remember, we’re talking about the best 3-point shooting team in America with a 2-time national player of the year that no one has an answer for. NC State’s run to the Final Four has been helped greatly by teams forgetting how to shoot from distance. The Wolfpack switch and try to force weaker shots, but opponents are shooting 24% from 3 on 29 attempts a game in the tournament. Regression came for Clemson in the Elite Eight, and it could very well be coming for NC State here.