O'Gara: Here's what history tells us about SEC Tournament winners in the NCAA Tournament

You know the recent history. Or rather, you should know the recent history.

No SEC team has been to the Final Four during the 2020s decade. Would that have been different had the 2020 NCAA Tournament not been canceled? Possibly, but as it stands, we’re still waiting on the first SEC team to make the Final Four since 2018-19 Auburn, who was a blown double-dribble call away from playing for a national title.

Based on that, you can infer something else. No recent SEC Tournament champ has made a particularly deep run in the NCAA Tournament. Well, at least not in the 2020s.

Since the SEC expanded to 14 teams, here’s the final destination for each SEC Tournament champ:

2013 Ole Miss — Round of 32
2014 Florida — Final Four
2015 Kentucky — Final Four
2016 Kentucky — Round of 32
2017 Kentucky — Elite 8
2018 Kentucky — Sweet 16
2019 Auburn — Final Four
2020 canceled
2021 Alabama — Sweet 16
2022 Tennessee — Round of 32
2023 Alabama — Sweet 16

That’s an average of 2.4 NCAA Tournament wins, meaning the standard is to reach the Sweet 16. Only 1 of the last 5 SEC Tournament champs got beyond that. Go figure that it was 2019 Auburn, who is the only non-double bye team to win the SEC Tournament since the field expanded to 14 in 2013.

Related: Want to bet on Kentucky’s SEC Tournament run? Sign up with one of Saturday Down South’s recommended Kentucky sportsbooks to take advantage of a generous deposit bonus!

That sort of debunks the whole “heavy legs” theory many refer to either when finding the spin zone for a conference tournament loss or when filling out March Madness brackets. We play the results with that. Those 2010s Kentucky teams didn’t often struggle from “heavy legs” back when they dominated the SEC Tournament. More recently, UK has just 1 SEC Tournament game victory in the 2020s.

Since 2013, here are the SEC teams in that stretch who reached the Elite 8 without even playing in the SEC Tournament Championship:

2019 Kentucky — lost in SEC Tournament semifinals, lost in Elite 8
2021 Arkansas — lost in SEC Tournament semifinals, lost in Elite 8
2022 Arkansas — lost in SEC Tournament semifinals, lost in Elite 8

None of those squads made the Final Four, though. The last time we saw an SEC team fail to reach the conference title game and advance to the Final Four was 2006 LSU. The only other time that an SEC team accomplished that feat this century was 2000 Florida, which lost in the SEC Tournament semifinals but then made it all the way to the national title game.

So yeah, let’s move past the notion that “losing early in Nashville means a Final Four is coming.” Maybe it will, but it would buck nearly 2 decade’s worth of data.

Don’t believe me? Check out the national championship odds if there’s a pre-SEC Championship exit for a team like Tennessee (+1400 on FanDuel), Auburn (+2000) or Kentucky (+2000).

Tennessee is in a position to potentially sweep the regular season and conference tournament titles. DraftKings has Tennessee as the favorite at +160. What does that tell us about a potential NCAA Tournament run, you ask? Here’s the history behind the teams who accomplished that feat since the conference expanded to 14 teams in 2012-13:

2014 Florida — Final Four
2015 Kentucky — Final Four
2016 Kentucky — Round of 32
2017 Kentucky — Elite 8
2021 Alabama — Sweet 16
2023 Alabama — Sweet 16

The last SEC team to sweep the regular season and conference tournament who went on to the national championship was 2006-07 Florida, AKA the last team to repeat as national champs. In other words, they’re still the outlier.

For most of the 2014-15 season, it was fair to wonder if Kentucky was the outlier, too. The Cats’ bid to become the first undefeated team since 1975-76 Indiana came up short against Wisconsin. But that’s the last time an SEC team swept both the regular season and conference title en route to the Final Four.

Here’s 1 comforting thought for the SEC Tournament winner; the last time that an SEC Tournament winner failed to win a single NCAA Tournament game was 2008-09 Mississippi State, who had a Cinderella run through the conference field and wouldn’t have sniffed the NCAA Tournament without that.

The same was true of that 2007-08 Georgia squad that stunned everyone by taking home the 2008 SEC Tournament, AKA the “Tornado Tourney.” And 1999-00 Arkansas won the SEC Tournament after posting a losing record in conference play, but fell in the Round of 64. None of those teams would’ve made it to the NCAA Tournament as an at-large team.

Since 1990, those are the only 3 examples of SEC Tournament champs who failed to win an NCAA Tournament game. History sides more with those who prove they belong.

For the 6 SEC teams who are considered NCAA Tournament “locks” — Florida, South Carolina, Auburn, Alabama, Kentucky and Tennessee — this week in Nashville won’t determine what happens the following week. History tells us that the SEC’s recent struggles with fielding a national title contender aren’t related to how many games are won in the conference tournament.

Should the SEC do away with the Sunday conference title game and instead shift it to Saturday like plenty of others? Eh, there might be something there but let’s play the results for the rest of the decade and see how that shakes out.

For now, though, take this week in Nashville for what it is — a glorious preamble for one of the best tournaments on the planet.