Duke vs. Louisville is one of the biggest ACC games on the slate for Week 8.

The Blue Devils enter this contest coming off of a loss to Florida State last week. Quarterback Riley Leonard is once again dealing with an ankle injury as Duke attempts to get back in the win column vs. Louisville. The Cardinals were on bye last week, but last played in Week 7 when they suffered a stunning road loss to Pittsburgh.

This game has major ACC Championship Game implications, as both Duke and Louisville are both still in the mix for a title game berth. They are 2 of 4 ACC teams who currently have exactly 1 loss in conference play.

Let’s examine some betting trends, advanced stats and other useful info about these teams:

Duke vs. Louisville Betting Lines

Spread: Louisville -6 (DraftKings)

Total: 46 (DraftKings)

Check out these excellent sports betting apps to get in on the action ahead of Saturday’s big ACC game.

Betting trends to know for Duke

  • Duke is 4-3 against the spread this season
  • The over is 3-3-1 in Duke games this season
  • Duke is 1-2 against the spread as an underdog this season
  • Duke is 1-1 against the spread on the road this season

Prior to the Notre Dame contest (which Duke nearly won outright), Duke had earned 5 straight ATS wins as an underdog during the Mike Elko era. The Blue Devils have now lost 2 straight ATS (and straight up) as the underdog to the Irish and Florida State. Duke was in position to beat FSU (or at least cover the 14-point spread) before Riley Leonard went down again in the third quarter.

Betting trends to know for Louisville

  • Louisville is 3-3-1 against the spread this season
  • The under is 4-3 in Louisville games this season
  • Louisville is 2-3-1 against the spread as a favorite this season
  • Louisville is 3-0 against the spread at home this season

Louisville has comfortably covered the spread in all three of its previous home games this season. The Cardinals beat the number by 12 vs. Murray State, by 14 vs. Boston College and by 19.5 vs. Notre Dame.

Résumé rankings

Via ESPN’s Football Power Index: 

  • Duke strength of schedule: 19th
  • Louisville strength of schedule: 86th

 

  • Louisville strength of record: 18th
  • Duke strength of record: 25th

Duke has faced a much tougher schedule to this point in the season. While both programs have played Notre Dame already, the Blue Devils have also faced Clemson and Florida State — two top-20 teams, according to FPI’s ratings. Aside from the Irish, Louisville hasn’t played anyone ranked inside FPI’s top 50 entering Week 9.

Advanced Stats preview 

Success rate will be the primary tool referenced in this section. Whether or not a play is “successful” depends on the down and distance of a given play. Here’s a breakdown of how much yardage is necessary for a play to be deemed “successful”:

  • 1st down: Teams must gain at least 50% of required yardage
  • 2nd down: Teams must gain at least 70% of required yardage
  • 3rd or 4th down: Teams must gain 100% of required yardage

Defensively, numbers are presented as what the defense allowed the offense to achieve. So on defense, a 35% success rate is better than a 40% success rate.

Let’s dig into what success rate says about this matchup:

Rushing Success Rate

  • Duke rushing offense success rate: 44% (60th percentile)
  • Louisville rushing defense success rate: 36% (86th percentile)

Duke has an exceptionally-efficient rushing offense. The Blue Devils are 8th nationally and lead the ACC in yards-per-carry, although their success rate indicates they might be playing over their heads just a little bit. A 44% success rate on the ground is good, but not great. But Duke has more than made up for that with its explosive plays. The Blue Devils have more rushes of 20+ yards and 30+ yards than any other ACC team.

On the other side, Louisville’s rush defense has been excellent. The Cardinals have posted elite success rate numbers and allow just over 3 yards per carry on the ground. The potential red flag here is Louisville’s weak strength of schedule. But even when the Cardinals have faced a strong rushing attack like Notre Dame’s, they were dominant. The Fighting Irish rushed for a season-low 1.6 yards per carry vs. Louisville.

  • Louisville rushing offense success rate: 51% (92nd percentile)
  • Duke rushing defense success rate: 42% (42nd percentile)

Led by Jawhar Jordan (7.4 yards per carry), Louisville has one of the top rushing attacks in the ACC. However, their overall yards-per-carry number of 4.75 doesn’t necessarily reflect that. That’s due to a relative lack of explosive rushing plays — the Cardinals have generated just 32 rushes of 10+ yards this season, which is tied for 11th in the ACC and tied for 84th nationally. You could take this one of two ways: on one hand, Louisville’s rushing attack isn’t capable of busting the game open with big, game-changing runs. On the other hand, the Cardinals have been exceptionally efficient on a down-to-down basis despite the relative lack of chunk plays.

Duke’s rushing defense has been somewhat vulnerable on a down-to-down basis, making this a very interesting matchup for Louisville. The key to beating Duke’s vaunted defense is to stay ahead of schedule, which the Cardinals have done a good job of this season (albeit vs. a weak schedule). Louisville has found itself in passing down situations just 26% of the time, which ranks in the 94th percentile nationally.

Passing Success Rate

  • Duke passing offense success rate: 47% (80th percentile)
  • Louisville passing defense success rate: 37% (78th percentile)

On paper, this is a pretty equal matchup. But the status of Duke quarterback Riley Leonard throws everything into question. Backup quarter Henry Belin IV has not been effective as a passer in his initial outings as Duke’s signal caller. In his two games vs. ACC opposition this season, Belin has completed 5-of-18 passes for 114 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception. If Leonard can’t go, it’s a significant downgrade for Duke’s success rate through the air.

  • Louisville passing offense success rate: 46% (70th percentile)
  • Duke pass defense success rate: 39% (67th percentile)

This figures to be a relatively even matchup, depending on the type of night Jack Plummer has. Plummer has been mostly good this season, but he’s prone to mistakes in inopportune moments. Louisville leads the ACC in yards per attempt through the air, but Plummer has also thrown 8 interceptions already — second only to Haynes King among ACC quarterbacks. Given Louisville’s aforementioned advantage in the running game, it’s possible Plummer won’t be asked to do too much in this one.

Havoc rate

A havoc play is defined as a play where the defense records a tackle for loss, a forced fumble, an interception or a pass breakup.

For defenses, a higher havoc rate is good. Offensively, havoc rates are presented as what the offense allowed the defense to create. On that side of the ball, the lower the havoc rate, the better it is for your offense.

Here’s a breakdown of this matchup:

  • Duke offensive havoc rate: 11% (96th percentile)
  • Louisville defensive havoc rate: 21% (89th percentile)

This is another area where Belin’s decision-making will be under the microscope if Leonard can’t go. An 11% havoc rate allowed is probably unsustainable in any case, let alone if you have a backup quarterback in the game.

  • Duke defensive havoc rate: 17% (49th percentile)
  • Louisville offensive havoc rate: 19% (19th percentile)

This is an area where Duke can try to take advantage of Louisville. The Cardinals’ poor havoc rate offensively is mostly tied to Plummer’s interception woes. However, Louisville has allowed 15 sacks this season, which ranks in the bottom half of all ACC teams. Duke needs to make some big plays on defense if it’s going to have a realistic chance of winning on the road.

Points per opportunity

A scoring “opportunity” is defined as a possession in which the offense has moved the ball beyond the opponents’ 40-yard line. This stat measures how effective a team is at cashing on its scoring chances — or preventing them from their opponents.

  • Duke points scored per opportunity: 4.21 (67th percentile)
  • Louisville points allowed per opportunity: 4.04 (29th percentile)

This is another potential advantage for Duke that gets murky in a hurry if Leonard isn’t able to play due to his ankle injury. Still, Louisville’s defense has not been stingy enough in these spots.

  • Louisville points scored per opportunity: 3.6 (37th percentile)
  • Duke points allowed per opportunity: 2.87 (89th percentile)

Duke’s success rates may be mediocre defensively, but credit the Blue Devils for tightening up in key situations. Duke has allowed opponents to convert on just over 61% of red zone possessions this season — that’s No. 2 nationally behind only Michigan. Some of that is turnover luck and small sample size noise — Clemson had three failed red zone trips alone vs. the Blue Devils. Some of it is that Duke has allowed just 6 fourth-down conversions on 18 attempts so far this season.

Tracking efficiency 

ESPN FPI

  • Duke offense: 26th
  • Duke defense: 13th
  • Duke special teams: 43rd 

 

  • Louisville offense: 29th
  • Louisville defense: 20th
  • Louisville special teams: 110th

ESPN SP+ 

  • Duke offense: 40th
  • Duke defense: 18th
  • Duke special teams: 47th 

 

  • Louisville offense: 33rd
  • Louisville defense: 26th
  • Louisville special teams: 60th 

Note: All advanced stats mentioned in this story are from CollegeFootballData.com unless otherwise noted. Betting trends are via the Sports Betting Dime database.