Kentucky hosts No. 22 Florida this weekend (Noon, ESPN) looking for the program’s 3rd consecutive victory over the Gators.

Kentucky has already won 3 of the past 5 against Florida, a run that has flipped the script on a series dominated entirely by the Gators during a 31-game winning streak from 1987-2017. Kentucky has used this recent success vs. Florida to justify its pursuit of bigger things in college football. Mark Stoops told the Kentucky administration he felt Big Blue could do more on the gridiron, but he needed an anchor to sell that dream. By ending 3 decades of futility against Florida, Stoops found his anchor.

The way Kentucky has beaten Florida over the past 5 years and, in truth, the way Kentucky has controlled the game in 5 of the last 6 seasons is an object lesson in the program Stoops has built. Kentucky has been the more physical football team, better on the line of scrimmage, cleaner in their tackling, and more successful running the football. Florida stole 2 games — a 28-27 rally in 2017 and a come from behind 29-21 win in 2019 — thanks largely to Kentucky mistakes (I think Freddie Swain is still uncovered in some version of Kentucky football fan angst). But even in those games, Kentucky was the better team at the point of attack and the more physical team.

Florida fans have been slow to get religion on the scale of the Kentucky turnaround under Stoops. While Florida has posted 3 losing seasons in its past 7 campaigns, Kentucky has gone to 7 consecutive bowl games. Meanwhile, the Wildcats keep pushing Florida around on the field, and Gators fans keep circling Kentucky as a game they’ll win or “should win.”

Florida’s current staff doesn’t write off Kentucky, as Billy Napier praised their coaching, culture and physicality this week. But the truth is that with the exception of Dan Mullen’s underachieving 2020 group, the Kentucky game has been a toss-up for Florida for several years.

And so it is Saturday, and so it will be, at least in the foreseeable future.

Let’s dive into 3 matchups that will determine who wins Saturday’s game.

Florida’s pressure vs. Devin Leary in the downfield passing game

The Gators’ rebuilt front 7 is a huge reason Florida is the top-ranked defense in the SEC. The Gators lead the SEC in total defense, passing defense, and success rate defense, and Florida ranks 3rd in “havoc” (pressures and sacks on passing plays).

Kentucky landed the best transfer quarterback not named Sam Hartman when it pulled in Devin Leary, the 2021 ACC Offensive Player of the Year and the 2022 preseason ACC Player of the Year. Early returns on Leary, though, are mixed. He has thrown 5 interceptions (matching his 2021 total, when he threw an NC State-record 35 touchdowns against just 5 interceptions) through Kentucky’s first 4 games, a frightening thing to consider given Florida will be the first defense Leary has faced ranked in the top 100 in SP+ defense (SP+ factors in success rate, tempo, and strength of opponent efficiency).

Throughout fall camp, the word was that Kentucky would have the most improved offensive line in the SEC, a return to the Big Blue Wall that helped UK win 10 games in 2021. It’s hard to gauge the merit of that, however. Kentucky has allowed just 4 sacks this season and only 17 pressures, great numbers posted against poor competition.

Florida’s ability to generate havoc with 4 to 6 rushers, something they did throughout the game against Tennessee, will be critical. Leary’s completion percentage is just 37% under pressure this season, compared to a quality 65% with a clean pocket. The errant throws deep, like this one against Vanderbilt, have gotten attention.

That’s a bit unfair, though, because Leary has hit big pass plays consistently to Barion Brown, Tayvion Robinson and Dane Key, one of the SEC’s better receiving trios. Austin Armstrong’s scheme gives up big plays — that tendency is why Florida’s defense ranks 6th in yards allowed per play but 1st in success rate defense. Kentucky will hit a few Saturday — Florida’s pressure will define how many, and how many may define who wins the football game.

Ray Davis against Florida’s linebackers

Assuming Leary hits a few downfield explosives, the next step for Kentucky to win a 3rd consecutive game against the Gators is to establish the run. Ray Davis is off to a marvelous start, ranking 4th in the SEC in rushing yards (314) and adding 10 receptions and 137 yards.

Florida’s linebackers grade out as the 2nd-best group in the SEC through 4 weeks (Alabama), led by Shemar James, a sideline-to-sideline athletic freak in the middle. Kentucky struggled to run the football against Vanderbilt — a bad sign considering it was the first Power 5 type athletes their revamped offensive line had faced this season.

Davis has managed to make the blocking look better by breaking tackles, and he ranks 2nd in the SEC in yards after contact, behind Florida’s Trevor Etienne. Florida is a quality tackling team, though, and there will be fewer opportunities for Davis to break free Saturday. Tennessee had some success, for a half, running the ball on Florida, but the Gators have otherwise been stout in run fits.

Florida will likely have to defend the run with 5 or 6 against 7 or 8, given Armstrong will want to prevent Kentucky’s explosive receivers and outstanding tight end, Jordan Dingle, from getting behind the defense too often. Florida accomplished that against Tennessee. Can they do it again on the road?

Florida’s physicality vs. Kentucky’s run fits

This might not be the whole kit and caboodle, but as alluded to in the introduction, physicality has been what separates a consistent program (Kentucky) from a program on its 3rd head coach (Florida) over the past 7 seasons.

Will Florida be able to establish the run game Saturday? If the Gators can, everything else falls into place, because Graham Mertz has been excellent in a game manager role to date and he won’t be bothered by the atmosphere in Lexington, having played his fair share of hostile road tilts in the Big Ten with Wisconsin.

Kentucky ranks 10th in rushing defense, but it’s hard to know how much to read into that number when the slate is Ball State, FCS Eastern Kentucky, Akron and Vanderbilt. The Gators are a whole different level of athlete.

It will be loud, because as Stoops rightly remarked, Kentucky fans can wake up early and pound beers. 

Given that, Florida needs to stay on schedule by avoiding procedure penalties and running the football. The return of All-SEC center Kingsley Eguakun and starting guard Micah Mazzccua will help in that regard, as Florida will play just its second game this season with its preferred starting offensive line. The other game, against Tennessee, was the one where Etienne went off, rushing for 172 yards on 23 carries and earning Doak Walker national running back of the week honors.

Etienne’s backfield mate, Montrell Johnson, is also terrific, ranking in the top 10 in college football in explosive runs since the 2021 season. Both excel after contact (1st and 5th in the SEC in yards after contact, per Stats Solutions). But there has to be a longer gap between hole and Kentucky run fit for Florida to hit the explosives that have been missing much of the 2023 season.

Can Florida win the physical battles necessary to create those game-changing runs? Kentucky’s linebackers are outstanding, led by Trevin Wallace, who ranks in the top 10 in the SEC in sacks, pressures and tackles for loss. D’Eryk Jackson is also outstanding, grading out as Kentucky’s best run stopper at linebacker through 4 games (73.3 PFF grade). Still, Florida needs to win the initial battles at the point of attack and force Kentucky’s linebackers to make plays in space. If the Gators avoid being bullied up front again, they’ll have a chance to win Saturday afternoon.

Prediction: Kentucky 20, Florida 16

Something about the Gators brings out the best in Stoops, and Saturday will be no different. Leary and Brown will beat Florida over the top for 6 at least once, and Brad White’s defense will do the rest, keeping the Gators in front of them and forcing Florida to settle for too many field goals. The result will be a heartbreaking loss for Napier and another milestone moment for Stoops, who will become the first UK coach to beat Florida 3 consecutive times since a legend named Bear Bryant.