The new era of college basketball leaves everybody scrambling. If that conclusion is ever uncertain, a quick look at the Kentucky Wildcats and the North Carolina Tar Heels drives home the point. The two proud programs are perhaps the two strongest in the sport — No. 1 and 3 in all-time wins, No. 2 and 3 in most NCAA championships, each able to boast a who’s who of legendry roundball alums. And yet …

Infamously, Kentucky has won 1 NCAA Tournament game since 2019. While Carolina made a run to the NCAA title game in 2022, they’ve had their own struggles — including a 14-19 season in 2020 and missing the NCAA Tournament last March after opening the season ranked No. 1.

But here they are again — reloading and looking to reclaim their spots atop the constantly-shuffling dogpile of college basketball.

UNC is 7-2 and ranked No. 9. Kentucky also is 7-2 and ranked No. 14.

While UNC has retained more of its depth than Kentucky, the Tar Heels lost 7 players to transfer in the offseason. There are grumblings in Chapel Hill that if not for his March 2021 run, Hubert Davis might be looking for another job. Meanwhile, Kentucky has reloaded on standout freshmen and upped their tempo and three-point attempts. The quest for identity promises to be an ongoing story in this college basketball season, and there’s plenty of searching going on for both UK and Carolina. In an upside down college basketball world, everything we used to know is probably wrong. Well, not everything — UK and UNC are both still pretty darn good.

Calipari vs. UNC

Carolina holds the all-time series edge over Kentucky 25-17. That said, John Calipari’s Kentucky teams are 7-4 against Carolina. In the 2 biggest UK/UNC games since Coach Cal arrived in Lexington, it’s a split verdict. In 2011, No. 11 UK outlasted No. 7 UNC 76-69 to earn Cal’s first Final Four trip at UK. Carolina returned the favor as the No. 6 Tar Heels took down the No. 5 Wildcats in a 2017 Regional Final, 75-73, on Luke Maye’s last-second jumper.

Veteran Tar Heels

Carolina has a couple of players who might as well be unicorns for their otherworld situation. Nobody keeps 4-year standouts at the college level, but the Heels have done just that. Senior guard RJ Davis has had the kind of career that UNC or UK standouts might have had in the 1980s — going from a sometime starter as a freshman to a standout on a team that made a run to the NCAA title game as a sophomore to now a venerable senior. Davis’ 21.0 points per game demonstrate how solid he’s been for UNC. He’s also shooting 95% at the foul line this season.

He will be aided by post big Armando Bacot, a 5th-year senior and double-double machine. The 6-10 Bacot averages a shade under 16 points and 12 boards per game, and he has history in this series, putting up 14 points and 8 boards to lead UK to a 75-63 win over the Wildcats back in December 2020.

New UNC faces

This isn’t to stay that UNC is just running with long-time Chapel Hill guys. Stanford transfer Harrison Ingram has been outstanding, averaging over 15 points and 6 rebounds per game while shooting 46% from 3-point range. Frosh guard Elliot Cadeau — a 5-star every bit as decorated as Kentucky’s kids — has shown flashes of excellence, putting up 7 points a game while dropping a team-high 4 assists per contest. Cadeau had 10 assists in UNC’s upset win against then-No. 10 Tennessee. And Notre Dame transfer Cormac Ryan has 224 career 3-pointers made– although he’s in a shooting slump, hitting just 26% from long-range on the season.

How Kentucky matches up … and a prediction

Kentucky has been exposed in perimeter defense at times this year. St. Joseph’s took UK to overtime and hit 15 3-pointers, and UNC-Wilmington upset UK in part due to 11 made 3-pointers. Opponents have outrebounded UK in 4 of the Wildcats’ first 9 games, and Bacot will be a threat to crush UK there, although big man Aaron Bradshaw might help, and UK may add fellow big man Ugonna Onyenso on Saturday.

One issue UK hasn’t really had is turnovers — only twice this year has UK exceeded 10. UNC, meanwhile, averages barely half as many steals as UK, and is 0-2 in games this season when opponents commit less than 10 turnovers.

Davis is likely the best perimeter scorer UK has faced this season, and UK will rely heavily on depth in the backcourt to try to outlast the UNC scoring machine. In his past 5 games, Davis has scored 23, 30, 27, 27, and 26 points. Bradshaw — and Onyenso if added — need to help on the backboard. Bacot had 22 points and 11 rebounds last month against Tennessee.

But UK’s perimeter squad of Antonio Reeves, DJ Wagner, Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham has depth that UNC may struggle to counter. Tre Mitchell will be pivotal in this game, but an up and down pace might allow Justin Edwards to shine. At the end of the day, UK has lost its past 3 games played in Atlanta (2014 SEC Tournament Final vs Florida, 2018 NCAA Tournament loss to Kansas State, and 2020 regular-season game against Georgia Tech). The guess here is that UK’s depth helps UK avoid a 4th. Maybe Sheppard plays the Luke Maye role this time.

Prediction: UK 75, UNC 73