It could have been so, so much worse.

I remember watching Mizzou collapse against Purdue and wondering how the Tigers were going to win a game against Power 5 team. It was that bad. The Tigers looked like they didn’t even care.

Surely if Mizzou crawled to a 2-10 season, it would have been awfully tough to run it back with Barry Odom. The coaching staff would have been gutted, players would have transferred/gone pro and we’d be left wondering how bad Mizzou was going to be for the foreseeable future.

But fortunately for the Tigers, the second half of 2017 changed all of that. A 6-game winning streak to end the regular season not only ensured Odom another year (and an extension), but it also set up Lock’s first-round draft hype. Even though the schedule was favorable, all that mattered was that Mizzou went 7-5 and even avoided a losing record in conference play. That felt like a huge win for a program.

Oddly enough, it feels like 2018 could follow a similar path.

2017 record: 7-5 (4-4)

Lock and Dooley

I thought as soon as Josh Heupel left for UCF that Lock would leave for the NFL. Not only did Lock not do that, he decided to stay once the hiring of Derek Dooley was announced. So now it’s Dooley who’s tasked with taking the extremely talented Lock, and refining the skills he’ll need to be an elite next-level prospect.

Call me crazy, but I have my doubts.

Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

Dooley hasn’t been a play-caller in 6 years. This is also his first time being a coordinator. Dooley’s return to the SEC after the way things ended at Tennessee was surprising, though people might forget that he actually had a top-15 passing offense in his final year in Knoxville.

This is a completely new set of circumstances, and because Lock has that NFL buzz, he’s going to be under a microscope on a weekly basis. That’s daunting considering the way the conference schedule starts out.

Chances are, Lock isn’t hitting the single-season SEC record of 44 touchdown passes that he set a year ago. It’s not just about statistical regression with Lock. His success and Mizzou’s offensive potential will depend on Dooley’s ability to get Lock making every throw possible. It’s as simple as that.

That’ll obviously be much easier said than done.

But don’t forget about the ground game

So all of this attention will be on Lock because he’s the household name with the big arm. But let’s not forget that Damarea Crockett and Larry Rountree III are both poised for big seasons. Crockett’s injury last year opened the door for Rountree to emerge, and now they both get to shine after the graduation of Ish Witter.

As a freshman, Rountree got to play a big part in Mizzou’s win streak when Crockett went down in the Georgia game. In Mizzou’s final 7 games, Rountree averaged 14 carries for 82 yards. That was with Witter having a 1,000-yard season.

There’s definitely plenty of work available in the Mizzou backfield for Crockett, who had some high 2017 expectations after his 1,000-yard campaign in 2016. With Lock keeping defenses from loading the box, there should be all sorts of running room for the duo to help Mizzou control the clock a bit better.

Dooley is putting that on the offensive line, which he called out early on in fall camp. Perhaps lighting a fire under them will help fuel an even more balanced, but dynamic offense.

Time is now for Odom’s defense

My favorite stat about last year’s Mizzou team was that it was 7-0 when it scored 45 points and 0-6 when it didn’t. In other words, it was up to the offense to pick up the defense the entire season. That’s become the norm during the Odom era.

Considering how bad Mizzou’s defense was (No. 97 in scoring) and how awful the season started out, it’s somewhat baffling that Odom got an extension after his second season. He was hired to build off what he did as the defensive coordinator in 2015, when he led Mizzou to the No. 5 scoring defense in America.

A lot of people are wondering if Mizzou’s success was just the result of Heupel/Lock or the favorable schedule down the stretch. It’s hard to argue with that.

In Year 3, it’s up to Odom to maximize the potential of guys like former 5-star recruit Terry Beckner. It’s Odom’s responsibility to put Cale Garrett and Terez Hall in position to blow plays up in the backfield.

Odom obviously has to be on the same page with his coordinator, and not experience another early-season firing like DeMontie Cross last year. The hope is that Ryan Walters, who took over after Cross was fired, will be the answer. Odom gave Walters full play-calling duties this year.

That’s rare to see after a coach gets an extension, but it’s a smart move in what figures to be a pivotal year.

Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Game-by-game predictions

Week 1: vs. UT Martin (W)

A prediction for Lock’s video game numbers: 375 yards and 6 touchdown passes.

Week 2: vs. Wyoming (W)

Man, I wish we could have had Josh Allen vs. Lock. Oh well. I wouldn’t expect the same video game numbers from Lock against a Craig Bohl defense, but this still shouldn’t be a game in which Mizzou has to play its starters late in the fourth quarter.

Week 3: at Purdue (L)

The Purdue defense absolutely embarrassed Mizzou’s offense last year. Purdue defensive coordinator Nick Holt dominated Heupel in every way. Even though Purdue has some massive turnover on defense, I still like the odds of Holt drawing up some creative ways to confuse Lock. And knowing Jeff Brohm, he’ll definitely bust out a couple of trick plays to test the Mizzou defense. The Boilermakers hand the Tigers their first loss of the year, but it’s not the stomach-churner that last year was.

Week 4: vs. Georgia (L)

I’m pretty confident that the first half against Georgia will be featured heavily on Lock’s draft film. Because of that performance, this might shape up to be a sneaky upset pick for some. But I’d argue that Lock was so brilliant in the first half last year and the Tigers still lost by 4 scores. D’Andre Swift and the Dawgs run all over them and spoil their SEC opener.

Week 5: Bye

Week 6: at South Carolina (L)

I’m interested to see if Mizzou can sustain some drives and get Crockett/Rountree going to take some pressure off Lock in this one. My concern is how the defense will handle the pace that South Carolina will play at. On the road against a quality team, though, it’s hard to put chips on Mizzou. A 2-13 mark against teams with a winning record doesn’t bode well on the road.

Week 7: at Alabama (L)

I’m actually extremely excited for this one because it has potential to be the best matchup of SEC quarterbacks this season. Lock and Tua Tagovailoa could both end up being first-round picks someday. Plenty of people will base their opinions of Lock on what he does against Nick Saban’s defense. This feels like a 55-24 game where we see some flashes from Lock, but he spends most of the afternoon running from that Alabama front.

Week 8: vs. Memphis (W)

Sign me up for some offense, babayyyyyyy. Mike Norvell’s teams can light up the scoreboard in a hurry. Keep in mind that Memphis was second in FBS in scoring last year during its 10-win season. This is by no means a cupcake nonconference matchup for Mizzou. So why won’t Memphis pull off the upset? The Tigers have major offensive turnover having lost their top 2 weapons in second-round receiver Anthony Miller and former Tennessee quarterback Riley Ferguson. And a unit that was ranked No. 102 in scoring defense probably isn’t the best bet to slow down Lock and Co.

Week 9: vs. Kentucky (W)

It’s strange that Mizzou will go 5 weeks in between home SEC games, but that’s just the way the schedule worked out. I think Mizzou has an easier time stopping a one-dimensional offense and gets a long overdue first SEC win.

Week 10: at Florida (L)

Can we just call this the Cece Jefferson Bowl? Mizzou will have plenty of juice for this one after Jefferson’s comments, which will make this a more physical game than usual. By Week 10, I’m banking on Florida’s offense to have somewhat of an identity. I also think Todd Grantham draws up plenty of pressure to bother Lock, which allows the Gators to escape with a 24-21 win.

Week 11: vs. Vanderbilt (W)

Given how challenging the first 10 weeks of Mizzou’s schedule is, the Vanderbilt matchup begins what should be a favorable finish. In a game with a pair of NFL quarterbacks, the passing game does the damage, but it’s the Tigers who put it on cruise control late.

Week 12: at Tennessee (W)

Jeremy Pruitt’s defensive prowess is going to be interesting to watch as a head coach. I imagine he’s not going to follow a similar pattern to Odom, who went from defensive guru to being a head coach of a team with a suddenly woeful defense. But in Year 1 of the Pruitt era, I don’t think Tennessee has the playmakers to slow down Mizzou’s offense. The Tigers clinch bowl eligibility in their first SEC road win of 2018.

Week 13: vs. Arkansas (W)

Mizzou won’t be putting the finishing touches on an Arkansas coach this year, but I do think the Tigers make it a long day for Chad Morris’ squad. At least defensively. As tough as it is to predict a game this far out with a first-year coach, I find it hard to believe the Hogs’ defense will find the answers to best Lock. In another shootout, Mizzou finds a way to close the regular season on another high note.

2018 Projection: 7-5 (4-4)

Final Standings: 4th in SEC East

Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

#MIZ

Like the Georgia game last year, I think the Alabama game this year ends up being a bit of a moral victory that fuels a successful second half. The schedule sets up well for that. If the Tigers win 5 of 6 to close the season, it would feel awfully similar to 2017. People would still question how good they really were. Maybe Lock would become even more of an enigma for scouts.

I can’t have the Tigers taking that next step and getting back to competing for a division title when Odom’s track record against quality teams is so poor.

It’ll be telling what Mizzou does against Purdue, South Carolina and Florida. Those are all winnable road games that I have the Tigers losing. Can they start to change the narrative by winning 1 or even 2 of those games? It would certainly help.

It would also help if Mizzou could win the occasional 27-21 game. Putting so much pressure on your offense to score is a daunting task in the SEC. The Tigers aren’t going to reach the next level until they can do that.

But hey, they proved preseason expectations wrong before. Maybe they get back to that in 2018.

PREVIOUSLY IN SDS CRYSTAL BALL SERIES
SEC WEST

Alabama | Arkansas | Auburn | LSU | Mississippi State | Ole Miss | Texas A&M

SEC EAST

Florida | Georgia | Kentucky