2020 Heisman Odds: Can Mac Jones close it out?

Let’s make the rounds on the 2020 Heisman race and look at the latest Heisman odds…

Business as usual

This season has been, for all intents and purposes, completely insane. Unprecedented in-season schedule shuffling, games played with 10+ starters missing, conferences architecting scenarios in which their champion could make the playoff and a Heisman race that saw its preseason co-favorites hamstrung by COVID-19. Yet, here we are at the end of the season with a decidedly familiar Heisman stretch run.

Mac Jones, by virtue of LSU’s upset of Florida, is the prohibitive favorite headed into conference championship weekend. For perspective, he’s essentially as large a favorite as Derrick Henry was at the same point in his Heisman campaign in 2015. Does that mean he’s a shoo-in? Not necessarily.

Lurking in the wings are 3 challengers who have paths, albeit narrow ones, to the trophy.

BET ON THE HEISMAN WINNER

In 2002, Carson Palmer used his final game against UCLA as a slingshot to the Heisman. The Trojans waxed their crosstown rival and Palmer was perfect, tossing 4 touchdowns against zero interceptions. Trevor Lawrence has a stage that’s even bigger and a prize (CFP) that is more meaningful than the Orange Bowl was for Palmer.

Kyle Trask has the rare opportunity of meeting his Heisman nemesis face-to-face to end the season. Lamar Jackson and Deshaun Watson duked it out at midseason in 2016 as did Sam Bradford and Colt McCoy in 2008, but there has never been a showdown between the eventual Heisman winner and runner-up in a season finale or conference championship game. It’s funny, in both of those recent examples, the Heisman winner actually lost the game to the runner-up. Trask won’t have that luxury on Saturday.

And finally, the road map for DeVonta Smith. Only 3 non-QBs/RBs have won the Heisman since 1987 and all 3 got some help in the return game. Tim Brown took 3 punts to the house for the Irish in ’87, Desmond Howard took one kickoff and his famous punt return against the Buckeyes back for six, a feat which was duplicated 6 years later by Charles Woodson. If the SEC Championship Game is on the line, and Smith already has a gaudy stat-line in his back pocket, a punt return TD could complete his improbable come-from-behind Heisman upset.

Weekend update

Mac Jones, Alabama, QB | Odds shift (-125 to -300)

An absolute snoozer of a performance (208 passing, 0 TDs) landed Jones in the Heisman driver’s seat. Wait, what?

While Trask and the Gators were slicing their drive into the woods, Jones kept it on the fairway and 2-putted for par. Yes, the Heisman is an individual award, but it’s generally awarded to the best quarterback on a team headed for the title game. From time to time that formula has been hijacked by a mobile quarterback with obscene numbers (Flutie, Ware, Detmer, RGIII, Manziel, Jackson), but this year that’s not on the table. With one game to go, it’s Jones’ trophy to lose without a doubt.

Kyle Trask, Florida, QB | Odds shift (-110 to +250)

Trak entered Saturday night’s game with LSU on a spectacular heater. In his previous 6 games, the senior signal-caller had connected on 24 touchdown passes against just 1 interception. He was carving up SEC defenses with relative ease. And then came the first half against the Bayou Bengals. Trask threw for 226 yards and a touchdown in the first 30 minutes against Bo Pelini’s defense, but was picked off twice and lost a fumble at the end of the half. That rough start gave LSU confidence and despite a better go of it in the second half, Trask wasn’t able to prevent the Gators from being upset. Is he drawing dead in terms of the Heisman? Of course not. But instead of a win in Atlanta assuring him the Heisman, he’ll need to do it in style with at least one “Heisman Moment” highlight-reel play. That’s asking a lot against an Alabama team that appears more locked in than ever.

DeVonta Smith, Alabama, WR | Odds shift (+2500 to +1000)

It’s a shame that Smith only played sparingly against Arkansas. The Crimson Tide blowout and a cheap “gator roll” of Smith’s ankle made it easy for the Alabama staff to pull him off the field early. In his limited playing time, he did improve his Heisman chances by taking a punt 84 yards to the house. It was the kind of play that helped him while not helping his teammate Mac Jones at the same time. Smith has been an incredible story this season, but he would need a superhuman performance complete with at least 1 special team’s touchdown to have a legitimate chance at edging Jones at the finish line. I would need to see a stat-line in the neighborhood of 200+ all-purpose yards and 4 touchdowns to really expect him to steal the lead from his teammate. At 10:1 the likelihood of that happening simply doesn’t match the current odds.

First career punt return TD for DeVonta Smith ?

What can’t this guy do?! pic.twitter.com/W0cAYEtJBA

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) December 12, 2020

Trevor Lawrence, Clemson, QB | Odds shift (+2000 to +1400)

If you are in the market for a longshot, you could do worse than Trevor Lawrence. The presumptive No. 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft has the stage set for a Heisman miracle. In a CFP win-and-you’re-in scenario against Notre Dame, Clemson’s Golden Boy has the chance to rack up stats and highlights while the media reminds voters that COVID-19 shouldn’t be the reason that Lawrence is denied the hardware. If I were the house, a 400+ yard, 4-touchdown performance complete with a game-winning drive against the Irish would make me decidedly sweaty.

Timing is everything

Because this is essentially a 3-horse race, I’m advocating the following play. Watch the first half of Clemson-Notre Dame at 4 pm ET. If Lawrence isn’t having a superhuman game, I would place the following bet.

Mac Jones To Win The Heisman (10 units, to win 3.33 units)
DeVonta Smith To Win The Heisman (1 unit to win 10 units)
Florida Gators Moneyline Against Alabama (1.66 units to win 10 units)

As I’ve said previously in my columns for SDS, if you want to play Kyle Trask to win the Heisman, you should bet UF to beat Alabama. He has no path to the trophy without that win.

In the likeliest scenario, Alabama beats UF and Jones wins the Heisman. My play would generate a return of .67 units. If Smith goes ballistic and scores 4 touchdowns, thereby securing the Heisman, you break even. And if UF upsets Alabama behind a massive night from Kyle Trask … you break even. That’s one positive outcome against two instances of you coming up even-steven.

This even leaves the door open for a scenario in which UF gets a host of lucky bounces, upsets Alabama, but it isn’t enough for Trask to overcome Jones at the Heisman ballot box. In that scenario, you would be up 12.33 units.

Just some food for thought.

BET ON THE HEISMAN WINNER

Mike Calabrese

Mike Calabrese is a Saturday Down South contributor.