In a college football landscape where programs and fans and boosters are always looking for more, I get the sense that Mizzou has found its place.
The Tigers have averaged 9 regular-season wins for 3 consecutive years after a somewhat-underwhelming start to the Eli Drinkwitz era, settling into a consistently-good-but-rarely-great zone in the SEC landscape.
I think it’s important that we recognize how much of a feat that is. At the risk of sounding disrespectful when attempting to be complimentary, Missouri has rarely had a program of this quality for this many years in a row. Gary Pinkel got there at the height of his tenure, winning 10+ games 5 times in an 8-year stretch from 2007-14.
If Pinkel’s tenure represents Mizzou’s ceiling (which was certainly aided by old-school divisional scheduling during down periods for the Big 12 North and the SEC East), then Drinkwitz has proven he can, at the very least, lead Mizzou to a higher floor than it has ever had before.
The notion that Missouri can consistently win 9 games a season in an era where it faces a truly difficult schedule has rarely, if ever, been true. And yet, Drinkwitz has accomplished exactly that from 2023-25 despite significant coaching staff turnover, poor injury luck and a number of other adversarial factors.
I now view Missouri as a program that’s too consistent to have a season where it bottoms out and misses a bowl game, but not necessarily one that’s capable of seriously competing for SEC or national championships. I think that’s a strength, not a weakness, even if that consistency comes at the cost of never reaching the heights of a CFP National Championship Game.
Mizzou has won at least half of its games in 9 consecutive seasons, dating back to the Barry Odom era. Among SEC teams, only Georgia, Alabama and LSU have longer active streaks.
What does this mean for 2026? I’m expecting more of the same, even if the team will look much different at a few key positions than it did a year ago. You’ll hear about Missouri’s lack of returning production, quarterback experience and so on. But even with those questions marks, it’s difficult to doubt Mizzou’s strong track record of producing solid — and occasionally exceptional — results.
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Mizzou win total analysis
This piece is part of a series we’re running this offseason at Saturday Down South where we’ll look at regular-season win totals for all 16 SEC teams. We’ve previously analyzed Alabama, Georgia and LSU, Auburn, Kentucky, Ole Miss, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, Florida, Texas and Tennessee. Now it’s Missouri’s turn.
Missouri regular season win total
According to the latest college football odds on BetMGM, here’s Mizzou’s win total info for 2026:
- Over 6.5 wins (-135)
- Under 6.5 wins (+105)
The college football betting markets are expecting a 6-6 or 7-5 season for the Tigers, which would be a significant departure from where Drinkwitz’s program has been in recent years. Mizzou has won 8+ regular-season games in 3 consecutive seasons, including a 10-win season in 2023.
Mizzou 2026 football schedule
Here’s a look at Missouri’s schedule for the upcoming season:
- Sept. 3: vs. UAPB
- Sept. 11: at Kansas
- Sept. 19: vs. Troy
- Sept. 26: at Mississippi State
- Oct. 3: vs. Florida
- Oct. 10: vs. Texas A&M
- Oct. 17: at Ole Miss
- Oct. 24: OFF
- Oct. 31: at Arkansas
- Nov. 7: vs. Texas
- Nov. 14: at Georgia
- Nov. 21: vs. Kentucky
- Nov. 28: vs. Oklahoma
The nonconference schedule is exceptionally manageable with a road trip to Lawrence serving as the headliner. Mizzou’s SEC slate includes 4 teams who made the College Football Playoff last season plus Texas, which could begin 2026 as the preseason No. 1 team in the country. A home game against Florida in early October could also prove to be very difficult if Jon Sumrall can have the Gators firing on all cylinders in Year 1.
On the plus side, Mizzou generally has its toughest games at home and its easiest SEC games on the road (with the exceptions of Georgia and Ole Miss, of course). Arkansas and Mississippi State represent 2 opportunities for Missouri to pick up road SEC wins. Meanwhile, the Tigers get all of Texas A&M, Texas and Oklahoma at Faurot Field where they have a more likely chance to pull off upsets.
My prediction — Mizzou goes over this win total and gets to 7 victories. Full disclosure, the best price to bet the Tigers’ over actually comes from Kalshi, which currently has Mizzou 7+ wins priced at 52% (-108 implied). That price, of course, is subject to change based on marketplace demand.
Here are 3 reasons why I like the Mizzou over:
Quarterback upgrade
I think there are still a lot of questions that Austin Simmons will need to answer throughout the season. The former Ole Miss quarterback got off to a rough start last year with the Rebels before suffering an injury and ultimately getting Wally Pipp’d by Trinidad Chambliss. Still, it’s hard to imagine Simmons will be anything less than a marginal upgrade (at minimum) over what Mizzou had at quarterback last season in Beau Pribula.
Pribula proved to be a decent runner but a bad downfield passer for the Tigers. In SEC games last season, Mizzou ranked dead last in the league with a passer efficiency rating of 105.47. Mizzou averaged fewer than 6 yards per pass attempt in those games as well while posting a TD-to-INT ratio of 6-to-8. Pribula offered very little explosiveness through the air. Per PFF, his average depth of target was just 7.5 yards and he registered only 8 big-time throws all season (second-lowest among SEC quarterbacks with at least 300 drop-backs). Mizzou rarely had him attempt to stretch the field — he only had 23 pass attempts all season that traveled 20+ yards through the air, good for just 8.3% of his total passing volume. On intermediate throws, he averaged just 8.3 yards per attempt (14th out of 15 qualified SEC passers) and had a negative TD-to-INT ratio.
That’s enough about Pribula. The point is that Mizzou’s passing offense was dreadful last season and the Tigers still found a way to go 8-4 during the regular season. I think the combination of Simmons plus new offensive coordinator Chip Lindsey should yield much better results through the air in 2026.
I trust Mizzou’s infrastructure
There’s no sugarcoating that Mizzou’s defense could be in for a bit of a rebuilding year. The Tigers return hardly any of their top tacklers from 2025 and lost draft picks Zion Young, Josiah Trotter, Chris McClellan and Toriano Pride Jr. to the NFL. That’s a lot of talent for a Mizzou program to have to replace given its place in the college football recruiting ecosystem.
This is where I’m taking a bit of a leap of faith in back Mizzou to get to 7+ wins. I think Drinkwitz and defensive coordinator Corey Batoon have proved in recent years that they will put a good product on the field on defensively. Batoon has been somewhat of a revelation since Drinkwitz hired him to replace Blake Baker after the 2023 season. He was previously the DC at South Alabama and has transitioned seamlessly to the SEC. In back-to-back seasons, Mizzou has ranked in the top-35 nationally in EPA per play allowed, according to Game on Paper (it was top-15 in 2025).
A big part of whether or not Mizzou is successful this season will come down to its defensive evaluations in the transfer portal. With so many key players departing after the 2025 season, the Tigers got to work this offseason and added numerous defensive transfers. The headliners are former Auburn linebacker Robert Woodyard Jr., former Michigan defensive back Elijah Dotson, former Auburn defensive back Kensley Louidor-Faustin and former Oregon defensive back Jahlil Florence. Given Mizzou’s track record of success, I’m willing to give this staff the benefit of the doubt despite its 107th-ranked defensive returning production grade via SP+.
The schedule breaks well
I’m not scared of this schedule if I’m a Mizzou program that’s trying to maintain the status quo while rebuilding my defense. Wins over UAPB and Troy should be a given and I’d expect the Tigers to be favored on the road in the Border War against the Jayhawks.
The SEC slate is difficult, but road games against Arkansas and Mississippi State plus a home game against Kentucky are all exceptionally winnable. If Mizzou gets those 3 games plus takes care of business in the noncon, it only needs one more win to clear this total. There are several candidates, with Florida, Texas A&M, Texas and Oklahoma all coming to Columbia this season. I think there’s a chance Mizzou will only be a double-digit underdog once this season (when it travels to Athens on Nov. 14).
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Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
