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As you prepare for your draft, looking at last year’s numbers is important for multiple reasons. One of the things to look for is guys who underperformed in certain “luck-based” statistics, such as touchdowns. Regression, both positive and negative, is real and happens on a yearly basis.

For example, Raheem Mostert of the Miami Dolphins scored an NFL-best 18 rushing touchdowns in 2023. Is he likely to score that many TDs again this fall? No.

On the other hand, is a guy like Breece Hall of the New York Jets likely to be held to only 5 rushing TDs this season? Also no.

So which running backs should you target in the Round 3-9 range as potential positive regression candidates? I’ll list 3 players to consider below.

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3 RBs who could score more TDs in 2024

Tony Pollard, Tennessee Titans

  • 2023 projected TDs: 15.1
  • 2023 total TDs: 6
  • Current ADP: 92.2

Pollard finally took over as the lead back in Dallas in 2023 with high hopes from DFS enthusiasts everywhere. But, week after week, he struggled to find the end zone. Scoring only 6 times during the entire 2023 season, especially with how strong the Cowboys’ offense was, made him a major disappointment. He had 29 carries inside the 10-yard line last year, only scoring 4 times on those carries.

But hope springs anew in 2024. He’s now with the Tennessee Titans, who no longer have workhorse Derrick Henry. Yes, Pollard will split time with Tyjae Spears in the Titans’ backfield, but he should be the lead back. Give him 29 carries inside the 10 again and probability says he’ll find pay dirt more than 4 times.

Josh Jacobs, Green Bay Packers

  • 2023 projected TDs: 10.1
  • 2023 total TDs: 6
  • Current ADP: 33.0

Like Pollard, Jacobs is in a new city this year, having signed with the Green Bay Packers to replace Aaron Jones. Jacobs came into 2023 following a holdout with the Raiders, and it was clear he wasn’t the same guy who led the league in rushing with 1,653 yards in 2022. With a full offseason of work in Green Bay, though, he should be back to his talented self.

He scored 5 of his 6 rushing touchdowns last year on 22 carries inside the 10-yard line. If the Packers’ young offense is going right, he should have even more opportunities in the shadow of the goal posts this fall.

James Cook, Buffalo Bills

  • 2023 projected TDs: 8.4
  • 2023 total TDs: 6
  • Current ADP: 50.1

Cook will always have to deal with the threat of QB Josh Allen running in goal-line situations, but there are reasons for optimism regarding his 2024 TD total. First, 4 of his 6 total touchdowns in 2023 came after the Bills made the change from Ken Dorsey to Joe Brady as offensive coordinator. Brady seemed to unlock Cook both as a runner and a receiving threat out of the backfield.

The Bills don’t have much receiving depth outside of rookie Keon Coleman, which should lead to more work for Cook as a pass catcher. The Bills also lost some depth behind Cook in the RB room, so he should be more effective as a runner in goal-to-go situations, too. I like Cook to have a big 2024 season in terms of finding the end zone more often.

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