Think about this: In each of the past 14 Iron Bowls, there was a team with 1 or 0 losses. From 2008-21, either Alabama or Auburn still had at least a sliver of hope that it could reach a national championship.

This year, that’s gone.

And if you disagree with that, tell me how the selection committee is going to decide that the first ever 2-loss team to make the field will be a non-division champ Alabama that doesn’t have a single win against a team that’s currently inside the top 15 of the Playoff Poll? Sorry, Alabama fans. A 1-loss Michigan-Ohio State loser would get that spot, even with a blowout.

But what about Alabama losing on last-second plays and nearly being 11-0? To that, I’d say what about the goal-line stand against A&M, the red-zone stand against Ole Miss and the last-minute field goal at Texas to save Alabama from 6-5?

So let’s bring things back to reality. What’s at stake Saturday in the Iron Bowl? A lot, if you ask me.

Auburn is playing for a chance to get to a bowl game, which would be a monumental turnaround with interim coach Cadillac Williams. Alabama, by virtue of being ranked No. 7 in the latest Playoff Poll, could still have a shot at the Sugar Bowl depending on how LSU performs in the SEC Championship.

Are those the stakes we’re used to in this game? No, but as it should, one of the best rivalries in sports has plenty on the line.

Let’s dig into some thoughts on the 2022 edition of the Iron Bowl:

1. I love the identity Auburn has developed with Cadillac Williams on offense and defense

How fitting that it took Cadillac to realize that Auburn’s ground attack was far more reliable than the forward pass. In these 3 games with Cadillac as the head coach in November, Auburn has the No. 5 rushing attack in America at 259 rushing yards per game. Robby Ashford completed 38% of his passes for 4.4 yards per attempt, and he has as many touchdown passes as Jarquez Hunter (1) … but it doesn’t matter.

As it turns out, good things happen when Tank Bigsby doesn’t have to go an entire quarter without a carry. Bigsby is averaging 26.4 more rushing yards per game under Cadillac than he did under Bryan Harsin, but we’ve really seen a more significant uptick with Hunter’s usage. Under Harsin, Hunter averaged 6.9 carries and 40.5 rushing yards per game compared to 12.7 carries and 92.3 rushing yards with Cadillac.

But it’s not just the rushing offense that significantly improved. Auburn totally turned around its rushing defense. In October, Auburn allowed 23 more rushing yards per game (300) than any team in America. In November, Auburn has the No. 5 run defense at just 64 yards per game allowed. No, that wasn’t just the byproduct of playing a couple of pass-heavy teams. Auburn only allowed 2.7 yards per carry in November after allowing 5.9 yards per carry in October.

There are turnarounds, and then there’s whatever that is. Clearly, Auburn’s trenches play is vastly improved. A much more inspired group has been on display these last 3 games. Even the biggest Harsin apologist in existence can admit that.

The question is how much that matters against Alabama in Tuscaloosa.

2. These past 2 weeks should quiet any notion that Alabama “isn’t motivated”

If Alabama loses as a 3-touchdown favorite, it won’t be from a lack of motivation. It would be because it didn’t execute and Auburn did. Or it’d be because the officials were paid by Auburn.

(Kidding. Relax.)

It’s a new concept for this generation to think about an Iron Bowl without any path to a national championship, but we’ve had 2 games to see if Alabama would look motivated coming off that dreaded second loss. I’d say battling back from a double-digit deficit and beating a ranked Ole Miss team answered that question, and so did not messing around with Austin Peay with a 263-yard rushing performance.

There’s no doubt in my mind that Alabama is showing up motivated to play in an Iron Bowl. Does that guarantee it’ll play hard, disciplined football for 4 quarters? No, but that’s a different story than chalking up a potential loss to a lack of pride.

3. Don’t forget what Derick Hall did to Bryce Young last year

How many guys will be able to tell their buddies “yeah, I sacked the Heisman winner 3 times in a game.” That list isn’t long. Hall is on that list because he tormented Young last year. He was one of the big reasons it seemed like the Tide offense was always playing behind the sticks.

Hall was a machine that day, and he’s been one of the saving graces of the Auburn defense in 2022. The Luke Combs-singin’ defensive end should have some opportunities to make game-changing plays against Young this year, too. Young has taken multiple sacks in each of his last 4 games, including 3 against Austin Peay. Part of that is the lack of separation his receivers have been getting and part of that is because this isn’t a vintage Alabama offensive line.

The Tide’s starting tackles, JC Latham and Tyler Steen, have been perfectly fine in pass protection. But the issue is that when the Alabama interior gets pushed back, it changes those throwing windows for Young. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Auburn move Hall around a bit with some stunts to get him favorable matchups to get to Young.

And if Hall rips off another sack-trick (3 sacks) against Young, well, the Alabama quarterback had better hope he gets drafted into a different NFL division.

4. I’m assuming this is the last game for Bryce Young and Will Anderson

I don’t want to get into the discussion about whether certain players owe it to their schools to play in non-Playoff bowl games, so I’ll simply say this: If Young and Anderson do decide to play in a non-Playoff bowl game, that’s awesome. It’d be great for those of us who have thoroughly enjoyed watching them dominate college football.

But it’s easier if we all mentally prepare for the possibility that Saturday is all she wrote for 2 of the best Alabama players ever. Even though it doesn’t appear that they’ll get the swan song that they hoped for coming off a national runner-up season as the preseason No. 1, we shouldn’t lose sight of what they meant to Alabama.

Anderson had one of the best defensive seasons we’ve ever seen, and while the numbers aren’t at 2021 levels this year, he’s still been a total game-changer:

Don’t hold it against Anderson that he didn’t get a national championship in his final 2 years at Alabama. After all, he was a crucial part of that 2020 squad as a true freshman.

Young won’t necessarily get credit for bringing a ring to Tuscaloosa because he was Mac Jones’ backup, but for my money, there weren’t 10 college quarterbacks who were better than Young in the Playoff era. Without him, Alabama would’ve been an 8-4 team these past 2 years, and maybe that’s even a bit too ambitious. His ability to make off-platform throws is second-to-none, and his poise late in games was unmatched.

Young and Anderson could both have NFL riches coming their way in the very near future. Appreciate how great they were at the college level, especially in the likely event that Saturday could be their last go-around.

5. History is working against Auburn in several ways, but maybe that doesn’t matter

So Auburn:

  • A) Is 2-9 in its past 11 SEC games
  • B) Hasn’t beaten an AP top-10 team on the road since 2014
  • C) Hasn’t won in Tuscaloosa since the 2010 Cam-back
  • D) Is facing an Alabama team with 1 loss to an unranked foe since 2007
  • E) All the above

It’s “E.” It’s always “E.”

I didn’t even include the whole “being a 3-touchdown underdog” thing with an interim coach in Game No. 4 against the greatest coach in college football history. As much as I love Cadillac, yeah, advantage goes to the G.O.A.T. on that.

But maybe, just maybe, a weird 2022 season is about to get weirder.

We know that Auburn is going to play inspired. A bowl berth is on the line and with this possibly being Cadillac’s last game running the show, I have to think no stone will go left unturned. The entire bag of tricks will be emptied. As it should.

The stat I continue to bring up with Alabama is that since the start of 2021, the Tide have been in a 1-score game in the 4th quarter in 11 of 15 SEC games. That obviously includes last year’s 4-overtime Iron Bowl thriller last year wherein a 1-legged TJ Finley nearly led Auburn to the upset of the year. Maybe a healthy Ashford can be just enough in a game like this.

Alternatively, we could get a reminder of what Alabama looks like without the pressure of winning a national title. Perhaps by halftime, we’re all circling back to that unprecedented dominance against unranked foes in the Saban era and why even in a “down” year, Alabama’s best is still at an elite level.

Either way, Saturday should be a whole lot of fun.

And a prediction … Alabama 24, Auburn 21

Go figure that my prediction is nearly identical to last year’s 24-22 final. That’s more by accident than anything. I just tend to think that Auburn is going to continue to show improvement in the trenches. Even with those depth issues, this should be a “whatever you’ve got left in the tank” game for the Tigers.

It’s no longer a surprise to see the Tide play in these close games that go down to the wire. As much as Alabama has typically thrived against 1-dimensional offenses — 2 of those 4 SEC games that weren’t 1-score games in the 4th quarter were against MSU — I’d expect to see some creative chunk plays from the low-volume Auburn passing game. Flea flickers? Receiver passes? Philly Special? It’ll all be there.

Auburn wants to move the chains with the ground attack, and while Alabama’s raw numbers are solid against the run, it still allowed an average of 146 rushing yards in those last 6 SEC games. In that stretch, the only SEC teams who didn’t hit at least 180 rushing yards against the Tide were Air Raid MSU and lifeless A&M. In other words, this could still set up for Auburn to stay afloat with that ground attack.

But one more time, I think we see Young’s heroics save the day. Alabama trails in the closing minutes and just as he did last year, Young puts together that all-important drive to avoid a devastating Iron Bowl loss. The difference this time will be that instead of his late touchdown drive forcing overtime, it’ll be to take the lead for good.

Another instant classic Iron Bowl is upon us.