1. I don’t want to get on a soapbox, but …

If it never happens for Billy Napier at Florida, if he becomes yet another Gators coach arriving with big plans and sunk by the unthinkable, we’ll look back to this wild offseason as the turning point.

The offseason of quarterback discontent.

Just when you thought it was OK to dream big in Gainesville, the improbable offseason of the quarterback continued.

Blue-chip quarterback recruit Austin Simmons, long a commit to the Gators for the 2025 class, was rumored late last week to be reclassifying for 2023. This was critical because Florida’s current quarterback room is a wasteland of projects and castoffs (more on that later) heading into a critical Year 2 for Napier.

Simmons, who is home schooled and already has 2 years of college coursework completed, is also a top Major League Baseball prospect. Has been called this decade’s version of Tim Tebow (who also was home schooled and wildly talented).

And like Tebow, he made a late flip in the recruiting process. Tebow broke Alabama’s heart when he signed with Florida.

Simmons might have broken the 2023 Florida season when he flipped Saturday night to Ole Miss.

This becomes the latest, and more than likely final, body blow in the recruiting fight this offseason to land an elite quarterback and help turn around a sinking program.

Three years ago, Florida was a handful of plays from beating what Nick Saban called his greatest Alabama team in the SEC Championship Game — and more than likely advancing to the Playoff. The bottom has fallen out since, and the floor is nowhere in sight.

From nearly winning its first SEC championship since the halcyon days of the mid-2000s (with Tebow), to having to kick a field goal in the closing seconds of a blowout loss to Oregon State in Napier’s 1st season to preserve the nation’s longest scoring streak, it has been a wild ride in Gainesville.

And it’s only going to get worse.

When the rumors first began floating last week that Simmons would reclassify, his father, David, told the Palm Beach Post that there was a “possibility” Austin would reclassify and be available for the 2023 season. But, he said, “That could change — it could be 24 hours (from now), or 24 days.”

David Simmons then told the Palm Beach Post a day later that the the family was “in touch with attorneys” — prior to flipping to Ole Miss.

Simmons, who is listed at 6-3, 200, is an elite recruit and an MLB prospect. In other words, he’s expecting a large NIL contract or a large MLB signing bonus.

The MLB Draft is July 9, and Simmons — because he is a high school graduate — is eligible.

So this decision, like most every other at the position for the Gators this offseason, came down to NIL deals and money.

And in every instance, Florida was left dangling on the short end.

2. The hits keep coming

When it became clear in late November that Gators QB Anthony Richardson was leaving for the NFL, the Florida staff came up with a plan to completely retool the most important position on the field.

It was a 3-pronged attack: an elite high school recruit, 1-2 additions from the transfer portal and the existing quarterbacks on the roster.

Translation: sign 5-star recruit Jaden Rashada, continue developing Jack Miller III and hope you strike it big in the portal.

No matter how ugly it looked in the Las Vegas Bowl loss, Miller wasn’t the reason for the loss. Florida played with a limited roster (injuries, opt outs), and Miller — who transferred from Ohio State in the 2022 offseason — spent a majority of the season rehabbing an injured wrist/hand. It was the 1st start of his career.

Shortly after that catastrophe of a game, Napier and his staff dove into the portal. They did the necessary legwork on 2 dozen quarterbacks, and 2 weeks later signed enigmatic Wisconsin QB Graham Mertz.

Because he was the 1st signing, it left the impression that Mertz was the quarterback Florida coveted amid a group in the portal with better credentials. He wasn’t.

About a week earlier, the No.1 choice — the quarterback who Napier believed he could build the 2023 season around — nixed a potential transfer to Florida at the 11th hour. Tulane QB Michael Pratt, who would days later lead the Green Wave to a Cotton Bowl win over USC, decided to stay in New Orleans.

A little more than 3 weeks later, the drama began with Rashada — the No. 2 piece to the plan. It doesn’t matter who screwed up what, or what NIL money was really offered, or who changed those numbers, Rashada and his family felt as though Florida officials weren’t following through with the NIL promise.

Napier was furious at the Florida collective and how it had botched a simple contract — hence, the ensuing rebranding of the collective, and the university’s now 3rd party involvement, thanks to a new state of Florida law — but he wasn’t going to hold Rashada to his signed letter of intent.

The last thing he needs during this tenuous time in the rebuild is a player who could soil the locker room if he showed up, or a player who refused to show up, sat out the season and continued to take public shots in the media at Florida for not letting him out of his letter of intent.

In about 6 weeks, Florida lost its starting quarterback to early entry in the NFL Draft, lost its No. 1 choice in the transfer portal at the 11th hour, lost its 5-star recruit because of collective mismanagement — and was left with Mertz, Miller and project Max Brown.

After an ugly Orange and Blue spring game showed just how far the quarterback position was from winning games that matter in the SEC, Napier stood at the podium and said Florida would look to add another quarterback to the room.

That quarterback was Simmons. Until it wasn’t.

Until Simmons became the 4th quarterback lost this offseason.

3. Now what? The Epilogue

Mertz left Wisconsin after 3 uneven seasons, looking for a fresh start with a new coach and team. He was close to former Wisconsin coach Paul Chryst and was shaken by his firing.

He has been a model player in Gainesville. He’s first at workouts and last to leave. He’s leading voluntary throwing sessions and spending hours watching game tape: self-evaluating the good and bad at Wisconsin, and what he’ll see with SEC defenses.

He’s doing exactly what every coach wants his starter to do. He’s just not the starter Florida expected to roll out in the last week of August at Utah.

But here we are — unless Napier signs a graduate transfer from another school or level (FBS or FCS) who won’t be constricted by transfer portal rules. This is your Florida quarterback.

The strength of the Florida offense is the line and the running backs. The Gators are primed to run a ball-control, throw off play- action offense.

Mertz isn’t going to stand in the pocket and chuck it 30 to 40 times a game. If he does, the Gators will lose to Vanderbilt again.

In a perfect world, RBs Montrell Johnson, Trevor Etienne and Tulane transfer Cameron Carroll would touch the ball 45 times, and Mertz would throw it 16-20 times (and complete 12-15) and avoid disastrous turnovers.

The defense — where a majority of the young talent from the past 2 recruiting classes exists — would get the game to the fourth quarter and the offensive line would then wear down the opposing defense.

That’s a long way from what could’ve been with Richardson, Pratt, Rashada or Simmons.

But it’s now the turning point — 1 way or the other — to Napier’s time in Gainesville. He doesn’t have to get it right this season, but if he doesn’t (and it goes south with Mertz), then what?

Does DJ Lagway’s commitment then come into play? Will it affect the way he can maneuver for a quarterback in the 2023 winter portal?

Napier needs to win this season, and it needs to look like a coherent process. Not because he’s in danger of losing his job, but because he’s in danger of losing out on quarterbacks.

Florida isn’t moving on from Napier after the 2023 season — no matter what happens. They’re not paying him $32 million (his buyout after the 2023 season) to not coach, and they’re not paying him $25 million to walk away after 2024, either.

The administration’s hope is they’ll be in the middle of a Playoff run by 2025 because of Napier’s ability to recruit and develop players.

They may want to adjust that timeline after the events of this offseason.

4. The loaded QB room

One SEC coach I spoke to late last week said Simmons is, “beyond his years” away from the field.

He’s not paraded around by helicopter parents, and he’s a multi-sport athlete. He completed his high school core classes before the beginning of his sophomore season, and already had 15 college credits.

He threw 2 no-hitters as a freshman pitcher for Doctors Charter School in Miami.

“Just a unique young man,” the SEC coach told SDS. “If anyone can play as a 17-year-old, he can. I don’t mean just athletically. I mean, dealing with everything that goes with playing that position.”

The question: Where does he fit at Ole Miss?

David Simmons told the Palm Beach Post that Austin chose Ole Miss over Florida because, “the schedule is too tough and they want (2024 5-star recruit) DJ Lagway.”

This comment, of course, is ridiculous considering the current state of the Ole Miss QB room: starter Jaxson Dart (former 5-star recruit), former Oklahoma State 4-year starter Spencer Sanders, and LSU transfer Walker Howard (a former 5-star recruit).

Could Simmons arrive on campus in late summer and win the job? Highly unlikely — but if he truly is a Tebow-type player, he’ll be on the field in some form this fall. Watch his tape, there’s little doubt about his talent.

Now it’s just a matter of where and how he fits.

5. The Weekly 5

The 5 games that stress the win total for Mississippi State (6.5):

1. Nov. 23, Ole Miss: Last game of the regular season, and the Bulldogs could be sitting on 6 wins; they have lost 3 of the past 4 in Starkville to the Rebels.

2. Sept. 30, Alabama: The Tide could still be figuring out the QB situation. Is it possible to steal a win at home?

3. Nov. 11, at Texas A&M: Aggies have the better roster, but will they still be in the West Division race?

4. Oct. 21, at Arkansas: Bulldogs won by 23 last season, and it wasn’t that close.

5. Sept. 9, Arizona: An improved Arizona team, but a statement must be made in coach Zach Arnett’s first Power 5 game.

6. Your tape is your resume

An NFL scout analyzes a draft-eligible SEC player. This week: Arkansas RB Raheim Sanders.

“He’s a big, powerful guy with elite speed. He’s all of 230 pounds, and he’s running in the 4.4s. He’s a load to bring down, and he has some wiggle. Definitely not a plodder or pile mover, though he can get those tough yards, too. He’s a threat in the pass game, getting him in space and forcing guys to bring him down alone. That’s a difficult ask. The Day 1 running backs are rare, but he’s certainly trending toward it.”

7. Powered Up

This week’s Power Poll: The best running back room in the SEC.

1. Arkansas: Sanders could be the most complete back in the nation, and Rashod Dubinion is a quality backup. Add in QB KJ Jefferson in the run game, and the room is lethal.

2. Georgia: The Dawgs have a deeper group than Arkansas — Kendall Milton, Daijun Edwards, Roderick Robinson II — but don’t have a home-run hitter like Sanders.

3. Tennessee: Jaylen Wright and Jabari Small combined for 1,609 rushing yards and 23 TDs in 2022.

4. Ole Miss: It begins with Quinshon Judkins, the best running back in the SEC. It includes a healthy Ulysses Bentley IV and freshman blue-chip Kedrick Reescano.

5. Florida: Johnson and Etienne can both get tough yards, and have game-breaking ability. Carroll is the perfect changeup back, and dangerous in the pass game.

6. LSU: Josh Williams got hot in the 2nd half of last season, and Noah Cain became a dependable short/tough yardage back. Notre Dame transfer Logan Diggs give LSU 3 legit options.

7. Alabama: Jase McClellan and Roydell Williams are dependable. Freshmen Justice Haynes and Richard Young could be unique.

8. Kentucky: 2 transfers — Ray Davis (Vanderbilt), Demie Sumo-Karngbaye (NC State, teammate of QB Devin Leary) — and last year’s top backup (JuTahn McClain) give UK a strong trio of options.

9. Auburn: Marquez Hunter was a top backup for Tank Bigsby the past 2 seasons, and the No. 2 is USF transfer Brian Battie, who had 1,186 yards and 8 TDs in 2022.

10. Texas A&M: Amari Daniels and Le’Veon Moss were solid backups in 2022, but freshman Rueben Owens will get every opportunity to win the starting job.

11. Missouri: Cody Schrader was a pleasant surprise last season, and Stanford transfer Nathaniel Peat gives Mizzou a strong runner between the tackles.

12. Mississippi State: A new offense will focus more on the running backs, and that means more work for Jo’quavious Marks, Simeon Price and Jeffery Pittman.

13. South Carolina: JuJu McDowell averaged less than 4 yards per carry in 2022. Mario Anderson, a Division II star at Newberry, could be the team’s starter before the end of September.

14. Vanderbilt: The loss of Davis to Kentucky stings, but the staff is excited by freshman signee Sedrick Alexander.

8. Ask and you shall receive

Matt: What are the new rivalries you’re looking forward to when Texas and Oklahoma arrive? — Sid Crawley, Dallas.

Sid:

My top 3:

1. Texas vs. Texas A&M: The bitter rivalry hasn’t been played since 2011, and there are already issues. Earlier this month at the SEC spring meetings, Texas AD Chris Del Conte was still fighting to the bitter end get the 2024 game in Austin where it logically should be. The last game in 2011 was played at College Station. The SEC gave the 2024 home game to Texas A&M, which still isn’t happy about the Longhorns in the SEC.

2. Texas vs. Arkansas: Former Hogs coach Brett Bielema called the win over Texas “borderline erotic.” Current Hogs coach Sam Pittman celebrated the win over Texas in 2021 more than any other in his 3 seasons. A bitter rivalry of the 1960s and 70s reborn in the SEC.

3. Florida-Oklahoma: They don’t play in 2024, but when the league (finally, hopefully) goes to 9 games in 2025, they’ll be permanent opponents. Two of the biggest television properties in college football, and 2 of the winningest programs since the 1990s. A natural new rivalry.

9. Numbers

0. Joe Milton III was the Tennessee starting quarterback in Josh Heupel’s first season, and started the first 2 games of the season before getting hurt in Week 2 against Pittsburgh. Hendon Hooker replaced him, and he never went to the bench again.

But think about this: in 2 seasons at Tennessee, Milton has thrown 144 passes, and — this can’t be overlooked — he hasn’t thrown an interception. He has 12 TDs and 1,346 yards, and a 9.34 average yards per attempt. Hooker in 2022 was at 9.5.

The deep balls from Hooker will look the same with Milton. The ball goes down the field, and the defense is stressed because of Milton’s big arm (watch the Orange Bowl win over Clemson).

10. Quote to note

Florida coach Billy Napier: “Really excited about Graham (Mertz). His experience, the things that he brings to our team can certainly cause the rest of the room to elevate their play. I thought Jack (Miller) had a really good spring. And Max (Brown) is a really good, young player.”