1. I don’t want to get on a soapbox, but …

Brian Kelly believes he can win the national title at LSU. Not eventually, not if things go as planned.

But this season.

It was Kelly, LSU’s 2nd-year coach, who said all offseason that Jayden Daniels, LSU’s 2nd-year quarterback, will be among the nation’s elite at his position.

This is simple addition, everyone.

The elite of the nation at the most important position in the game + 1 of the top 3 teams in the SEC = a chance to win it all.

While Kelly hasn’t publicly said it, he knows what that statement about Daniels means. It’s a direct correlation to winning big.

“I appreciate (Kelly) saying that, but I just want to be the best quarterback for LSU,” Daniels said. “Hopefully that leads to being the best quarterback in the nation.”

This isn’t some crazy or contrived connection, or some desperate ploy to motivate Daniels. This is Kelly, with more than 3 decades as an elite quarterback coach/developer, saying Daniels will be among the elite in all of college football.

Guess how many times Kelly has said that in the past about his quarterbacks at Central Michigan, Cincinnati and Notre Dame?

Zero.

Kelly publicly challenged Ian Book in 2019 at Notre Dame, saying it was time to play “like an elite quarterback.” Book struggled early, finished strong and the Irish won 11 games.

A year later, they made the Playoff in the pandemic-interrupted 2020 season.

This time, there’s no public challenge of Daniels. It’s a declaration Kelly has been trumpeting all offseason.

And why wouldn’t he? Considering how far Daniels has come in such a short time at LSU, the idea of a special season isn’t such a wild statement.

Four years ago, another transfer quarterback was coming off his 1st season at LSU after struggling early and surging late. Just like Daniels, Joe Burrow spent his first season in Baton Rouge winning the job, the locker room, the fan base and eventually, big games.

Then came Year 2, and the greatest single season in college football history. We’re not going there, but the framework is simple: Get comfortable, play with confidence around a talented team and good things happen.

Daniels doesn’t have to throw 60 TD passes, but he does have to make 4th-quarter plays like Burrow did all season long in 2019. The 3rd-and-17 against Texas, the 29-yard fake QB draw and throw to JaMarr Chase against Alabama, and the 18-yard zone-read keeper on 3rd-and-2. The play after play after play in the 2nd half against Florida.

Those all led to the 3-game title run (Georgia, Oklahoma, Clemson) with a plus-79 score differential, where LSU won the SEC Championship and 2 Playoff games by a combined 142-63.

That team had the elite of the elite at quarterback. This team has a quarterback who had just hit his stride in early November before a high ankle sprain slowed the progression.

Daniels badly sprained his ankle in an upset loss at Texas A&M, and wasn’t the same player against Georgia in the SEC Championship Game. Garrett Nussmeier finished that game, and both played in a bowl game rout of Purdue.

But when spring practice arrived, and with the job wide open, Daniels left no doubt. He prepared and practiced so well, Kelly began talking about him being an elite quarterback not long after the spring game.

Burrow had Chase and Justin Jefferson — 2 of the best receivers in the NFL — and wildly underrated running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire. And the LSU defense got hot in the last month of the season.

This LSU team doesn’t have those offensive weapons — though WRs Malik Nabors and Kyren Lacy, and TE Mason Taylor are dangerous — but these Tigers will have a better defense than the 2019 team.

Daniels led LSU in passing (2,913 yards, 17 TDs) and rushing (885 yards, 11 TDs), and gives the Tigers a quarterback who does what few others can.

And that typically translates to a strong team doing what few others can.

2. Learn from history

If you’re among the best at the most important position on the field, you’re as close as can be to winning it all with the right team.

Look at the Top 5 quarterbacks in 2022, and see just how easily this formula played out.

— Georgia QB Stetson Bennett had the best deep ball percentage in college football, and in the 3 most important games of the season for Georgia — SEC Championship, 2 Playoff games — Bennett had 14 TDs (3 rush) and 1 INT and averaged a whopping 11.1 yards per attempt.

— A hamstring injury in the Pac-12 Championship Game likely kept QB Caleb Williams from leading USC to the Playoff.

— A missed 50-yard field goal by Ohio State kept QB CJ Stroud from playing in the national championship game.

— TCU QB Max Duggan played in the national championship game.

— Alabama QB Bryce Young was 2 last-play losses from reaching the Playoff.

Those 5 players accounted for 207 TDs and 31 INTs in 2022 — and the lowest total TDs (36) came from the best player in the game (Young) — whose team didn’t reach the Playoff.

Since 2015 — and after Ohio State (Cardale Jones) and Alabama (Jake Coker) won national titles with game managers at quarterback — check out these elite quarterbacks who have won national titles:

  • 2016: Deshaun Watson, Clemson.
  • 2017: Jalen Hurts and Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama.
  • 2018: Trevor Lawrence, Clemson.
  • 2019: Joe Burrow, LSU.
  • 2020: Mac Jones, Alabama.
  • 2021-22: Stetson Bennett, Georgia.

That’s 5 1st-round NFL Draft picks, and a 2nd- and 4th-round pick — and 4 of the 5 1st-round picks selected in the Top 12.

Again, it’s not rocket science: If you get elite play from the most important position on the field — and you have an elite-level team — the odds are very high that you’ll be in the Playoff with a chance to win the national title.

“We want to see that confidence that we saw from Jayden at the end of the year continue to show itself right through the first game at Florida State,” Kelly said. “When you are at the elite of that position, there’s very little doubt who and what controls games.”

3. The evolution of Daniels, The Epilogue

We’re days away from LSU beginning fall camp, and an offseason of hope and hype will fall on the arm and legs of the quarterback who nearly wound up at Missouri.

“We took our shot,” Missouri coach Eli Drinkwitz said. “You could watch his tape at Arizona State, he has everything you need to play at a high, high level.”

How high? Enough to give him more control of the offense.

Much like 2019 when Burrow was given the ability to change plays at the line of scrimmage in Year 2, Daniels has been given more control of getting the offense out of the wrong play and into a play that can work.

Daniels and offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock worked in the spring on finding what worked and what didn’t, and the how and why of pre-snap change.

“It’s exciting,” Daniels said. “(Denbrock) likes his quarterbacks speaking up and saying ‘I like this,’ or ‘I don’t like that.’ Or here’s how I think we can attack the defense. I feel very comfortable having those conversations with him.”

About 6 years ago, Kelly decided he needed to be more of a CEO head coach and would cede some coaching and control of the quarterbacks and offense to his assistant coaches. But that doesn’t mean he won’t step in when he sees something sideways.

Case in point: Last season — in the middle of trying to win the job and the locker room and the fan base and the game — Daniels was playing too timid. He wasn’t making tight window throws, and instead, he was pulling and running — or worse, taking sacks and/or getting hit.

Kelly pulled him aside the Monday after an embarrassing home blowout loss to Tennessee and told him to start letting it fly. Sometimes, he said, you have to trust your arm and make a tight throw — and believe the throw will be there and the receiver will make the catch.

Daniels had 18 TDs (8 rush) and 2 INTs in the 8 games after the Tennessee loss.

“We trusted each other by the end of the season,” Daniels said. “Players trusted each other, and coaches trusted players and players trusted coaches. Now it’s time to build on that, and take it to the next level.”

It’s not too difficult to see where that goes.

4. The ying … and the yang

If the elite quarterbacks get to the Playoff, what happens to the elite teams without elite quarterbacks?

More specifically, where do Georgia and Alabama fall into this formula?

The Alabama quarterback battle has been the focus of the entire offseason, while the Georgia job has avoided the same scrutiny of a new, unproven starter.

While teams have certainly replaced quarterbacks with new starters and gotten elite play (and made the Playoff), it should at least bring some pause to Georgia with Carson Beck (or Brock Vandergriff) taking over.

We can talk about the defenses at Georgia and Alabama dictating tempo and controlling games, and setting up the offenses. But only 1 of the 5 quarterbacks in question (Beck, Vandagriff, Tyler Buchner, Jalen Milroe and Ty Simpson) has experienced the 2nd half of an SEC game when you need 1st downs and points.

And that 1 — Milroe — couldn’t do enough this spring to lock down the job and prevent Alabama from rummaging around the spring transfer portal to find another quarterback (Buchner).

Georgia and Alabama could both eventually have a quarterback who can and will win big games. Just don’t assume it happens.

5. The Weekly 5

The 5 games that stress the Missouri win total (6.5).

1. Sept. 16, Kansas State: Drinkwitz needs a signature win. Why not the defending Big 12 champions?

2. Sept. 23, Memphis: Win or lose against K-State, a dangerous spot against a volume scoring offense.

3. Oct. 21, South Carolina: Tigers have won 4 in a row in the series, and forced QB Spencer Rattler into his worst game in 2022 (5.7 yards per attempt).

4. Nov. 18, Florida: The spot on the schedule (think: cold weather) is advantageous. This series typically produces ugly games, no matter the score.

5. Sept. 30, at Vanderbilt: Above all else, don’t lose games that should be won.

6. Your tape is your resume

An NFL scout analyzes a draft-eligible SEC player. This week: Arkansas edge Landon Jackson.

“He’s an intriguing prospect. He’s a tall, long guy. A long strider who can cover ground and will chase plays. He’s a little stiff at the bend, but has that length and frame to be a guy who can disrupt if he can figure it out. He’s truly getting by on athletic ability out there. Really raw. But boy, he fits the mold. I want to see how he develops, if he has figured out a couple of moves and he’s not just trying to out-athlete guys. Because that’s not working at this level.”

7. Powered Up

This week’s Power Poll, and 1 big thing: best fall camp position competition.

1. Georgia: Edge/OLB. Dawgs typically rotate as many as 4, and Chaz Chambliss and Jason Walker are likely starters, but sophomore Marvin Jones Jr. may eventually be the best of a young group.

2. LSU: Running back. A loaded room got deeper with the late portal addition of talented Notre Dame transfer Logan Diggs. All 4 on the depth chart have Power 5 starts (Diggs, Josh Williams, Noah Cain, John Emery Jr.).

3. Tennessee: Cornerback. Demo Slaughter, who had starts at corner and safety in 2022, and Kamal Hadden (who also had starts in 2022) will begin camp up front. But BYU transfer Gabe Jeudy-Lally, Warren Burrell and freshman Ricky Gibson III will all push for time.

4. Alabama: Quarterback. Forget the narrative that Buchner didn’t transfer to Alabama to sit. Did Simpson, a former 5-star recruit, sign with Alabama to sit? It’s wide open, and we likely won’t know until the offense takes the field in Week 1.

5. Texas A&M: Defensive line. The Aggies could play as many as 8 or 9. DEs Shemar Turner and Fadil Diggs are going to be problems for SEC offensive lines, and this is the year 5-star DTs Walter Nolan and Gabriel Brownlow-Dindy make an impact.

6. Arkansas: Secondary. All 5 transfer portal signees will either start or play significant minutes. It’s only a matter of which 4 get on the field: CBs Kee’yon Stewart and Jaheim Singletary, and SS/NB Lorando Johnson, AJ Brathwaite and Alfahiym Walcott.

7. Kentucky: Offensive line. There were too many problems in 2022 that can’t bleed over into 2023. Heralded NIU transfer Marques Cox must solidify the LT spot, and USC transfer Courtland Ford will battle Jeremy Flax for the RT job.

8. Ole Miss: Quarterback. Lane Kiffin wants to name a starter and play 1 quarterback. I can’t see him keeping Jaxson Dart or Spencer Sanders on the bench. There are plays for both — and freshman Austin Simmons.

9. Mississippi State: Running back. Jo’Quavious Marks is the unquestioned starter, but the No. 2 will play a critical role. Simeon Rice and Penn State transfer Keyvone Lee will compete for time.

10. South Carolina: Running back. Don’t be shocked if Dakereon Joyner, who has played nearly every skill position on offense, is the starter. He was too good to keep off the field in the spring, and will be pushed by JuJu McDowell and Newberry transfer Mario Anderson Jr.

11. Florida: Wide receiver. The Gators need speed on the outside, and that means freshmen will get an opportunity: Andy Jean, Aidan Mizell and Eugene Wilson. The only starting lock is Ricky Pearsall.

12. Auburn: Offensive line. No matter who starts at quarterback (which could ultimately be the best camp battle), the line must build chemistry in fall camp. Four of the 5 starters could be transfers, led by OTs Dillon Wade (Tulsa) and Gunner Britton (WKU).

13. Missouri: Quarterback. Brady Cook will walk out on Day 1 with the 1st-team offense. After that, it’s wide open with Jake Garcia, Sam Horn and walk-on Dylan Laible.

14. Vanderbilt: Secondary. A huge problem, made worse by a lack of pressure. BJ Anderson and Tyson Russell are the likely starters, but a group of redshirt freshmen will push for playing time.

8. Ask and you shall receive

Matt: I still don’t understand why everyone just assumes Florida will lose to Utah. The Gators won the game last year and didn’t really play that well. What gives? — Stephen Meyers, Palm Beach.

Stephen:

Let’s begin with your idea that Florida won despite not playing well. The Gators have a new quarterback (Graham Mertz) who can’t make the critical run plays that Anthony Richardson made and is as uneven as Richardson as a thrower.

Florida also needed a late interception (on the only poor throw of the game by Utah QB Cam Rising) in the end zone to win the game — a game that looked like it would get away from the Gators in the closing seconds.

Utah returns 14 starters from a team that got better after the Florida loss and won the Pac-12. Florida has questions all over the offense and a young but talented defense.

Take all of that, and now move the game to Rice-Eccles Stadium — which may as well be a smaller version of The Swamp. It’s loud, the environment is electric and the Gators will be playing in elevation (remember how the Gainesville humidity was a problem for Utah?).

9. Numbers

16.8. There is hope at Alabama that this is the season WR Ja’Corey Brooks embraces the role of No. 1 receiver.

In his last 4 games of 2022 against Power 5 opponents, Brooks had 17 catches for 285 yards (16.8 ypc.) and half of his 8 TDs on the season. He showed separation on deep routes and the ability to consistently fight for (and catch) contested intermediate throws.

Those are the critical plays where he has lacked consistency over his first 2 seasons. He has the size (6-2, 200) and speed (4.4 40) to be another in the long line of organically developed elite Alabama receivers.

10. Quote to note

Arkansas coach Sam Pittman: “Our program is built on toughness, physicality, and the ability to be loyal to each other. I feel like our team is that way.”