LSU vs. Alabama is a big game every year, and there are once again enormous stakes going into the 2023 matchup between these programs.

If LSU wins, it will have a share of first place in the SEC West alongside the Tide and Ole Miss — clearing the way for a potential 3-way tie atop the division standings. If Alabama wins, it will be 6-0 in conference play and will own the tiebreaker over the second-place Rebels.

Let’s take a look at some betting trends, advanced stats and other interesting info about LSU and Alabama:

LSU vs. Alabama  Betting Lines

Spread: Alabama -3 (DraftKings)

Total: Over/Under 61.5 points (DraftKings)

Check out these great sports betting apps to get in on the action ahead of Saturday’s big SEC showdown.

Betting trends to know for LSU

  • LSU is 5-3 against the spread this season
    • 3-0 in its last 3 games
  • The over is 8-0 in LSU games this season
  • This is the first time this season LSU has been the underdog
  • LSU is 2-2 against the spread on the road this season

LSU’s offense has been dominant all season while its defense has regressed, so it’s not too much of a surprise to see the over be 8-0 in its games this season. But LSU hasn’t faced a defense like Alabama’s yet this season, which could keep the total in check. LSU is riding a 3-game ATS winning streak entering this contest. The Tigers have beaten the number by multiple touchdowns in their last 2 games.

Betting trends to know for Alabama

  • Alabama is 5-3 against the spread this season
    • 4-1 in its last 5 games
  • The over is 5-3 in Alabama games this season
  • Alabama has been favored in every game this season
  • Alabama is 2-0 against the spread this season when favored by 7 points or less
  • Alabama is 3-2 against the spread at home this season

Like LSU, Alabama is also trending up this season with its performance against the spread. In their 3 meetings over the last decade-plus, Nick Saban is 1-2 against the spread vs. Brian Kelly. That includes last season’s loss to the Tigers, which paved the way for LSU to win the SEC West in 2022.

Résumé rankings

Via ESPN’s Football Power Index: 

  • LSU strength of schedule: 5th
  • Alabama strength of schedule: 8th

 

  • LSU strength of record: 14th
  • Alabama strength of record: 4th

Advanced Stats preview 

Success rate will be the primary tool referenced in this section. Whether or not a play is “successful” depends on the down and distance of a given play. Here’s a breakdown of how much yardage is necessary for a play to be deemed “successful”:

  • 1st down: Teams must gain at least 50% of required yardage
  • 2nd down: Teams must gain at least 70% of required yardage
  • 3rd or 4th down: Teams must gain 100% of required yardage

Defensively, numbers are presented as what the defense allowed the offense to achieve. So on defense, a 35% success rate is better than a 40% success rate.

Let’s dig into what success rate says about this matchup:

Rushing Success Rate

  • LSU rushing offense success rate: 57% (99th percentile)
  • Alabama rushing defense success rate: 33% (94th percentile)

It doesn’t get much better than this, folks. This is an elite rushing offense going up against one of the best rushing defenses in the country. The unstoppable force vs. the immovable object. If either team can impose its will in this area, it could blow the game wide open.

  • Alabama rushing offense success rate: 42% (33rd percentile)
  • LSU rushing defense success rate: 46% (27th percentile)

When Alabama has the ball, things are a little bit less refined, but still very even. Alabama hasn’t rushed for 5+ yards per carry in a game all season. LSU’s rushing defense has allowed that to happen 3 times already this year, although things are trending up. The Tigers have given up just 1 touchdown and 290 yards on 77 carries across their last 2 games vs. Army and Auburn. If LSU knows you want to run the ball, it can (usually) stop you.

Passing Success Rate

  • LSU passing offense success rate: 55% (96th percentile)
  • Alabama passing defense success rate: 33% (97th percentile)

Just like in the running game, LSU’s passing attack vs. Alabama’s secondary will be a battle between 2 of the best units in the country. Alabama’s defense has given up more big plays this season than it would like, but it’s been dominant on a down-to-down basis. An important part of this matchup: LSU’s offense is also in the 100th percentile nationally in passing down success rate; Alabama’s defense ranks in the 73rd percentile in that category. Even if Alabama can force Jayden Daniels into obvious passing situations on 3rd down, it might not be able to get off the field.

  • Alabama passing offense success rate: 42% (50th percentile)
  • LSU pass defense success rate: 43% (33rd percentile)

This is the area where LSU has really struggled this season vs. competent passing offenses. The Tigers were lit up in 3 straight weeks by Arkansas, Ole Miss and Missouri in the passing game. LSU hasn’t been seriously tested through the air since that win over Mizzou (Army and Auburn both rank outside the top 80 in passer efficiency rating). Alabama needs Jalen Milroe to show up in a big way on Saturday and turn the Tide’s passing offense into a major matchup advantage. To Milroe’s credit, he is averaging over 10 yards per attempt this season, albeit on relatively low volume (21.9 throws per game).

Havoc rate

A havoc play is defined as a play where the defense records a tackle for loss, a forced fumble, an interception or a pass breakup.

For defenses, a higher havoc rate is good. Offensively, havoc rates are presented as what the offense allowed the defense to create. On that side of the ball, the lower the havoc rate, the better it is for your offense.

Here’s a breakdown of this matchup:

  • LSU offensive havoc rate: 11% (96th percentile)
  • Alabama defensive havoc rate: 18% (74th percentile)

Part of the reason why LSU’s offense is so effective is that it limits negative plays. The Tigers have allowed 26 tackles for loss so far this season, which is by far the lowest number of any SEC program. LSU also leads the SEC with the fewest number of turnovers lost (5) despite being 4th in the SEC in total offensive plays (547). Frankly, this level of havoc allowed could be viewed as unsustainable given the level of competition that LSU has faced this season. Alabama is 4th in the SEC in tackles for loss with 57 on the year.

  • LSU defensive havoc rate: 18% (62nd percentile)
  • Alabama offensive havoc rate: 17% (45th percentile)

LSU has picked off 9 passes this season, which is one off the SEC lead. The Tigers also lead the conference in passes defended with 42. That’s where the bulk of their havoc plays come from, as they’re near the bottom of the SEC in tackles for loss and sacks. Alabama’s offensive line has been vulnerable, though — it ranks just 11th in the SEC in tackles for loss allowed.

Points per opportunity

A scoring “opportunity” is defined as a possession in which the offense has moved the ball beyond the opponents’ 40-yard line. This stat measures how effective a team is at cashing on its scoring chances — or preventing them from their opponents.

  • LSU points scored per opportunity: 5.08 (99th percentile)
  • Alabama points allowed per opportunity: 3.54 (58th percentile)

No surprise here, but LSU has been as efficient as anyone in the country when it gets to a scoring opportunity. LSU leads the SEC in 3rd-down conversion percentage as well as touchdowns from the red zone (30). Alabama’s defense has been slightly-above mediocre at preventing points in these spots.

  • Alabama points scored per opportunity: 4.17 (66th percentile)
  • LSU points allowed per opportunity: 4.51 (12th percentile)

Here’s a relatively-shocking stat: Alabama is tied for dead last in the SEC in red zone opportunities this season. The Tide are firmly at the bottom of the conference in touchdowns scored from red zone opportunities with just 14 all season long. Still, they’ve been relatively efficient at scoring on the opportunities they do earn. Meanwhile, LSU’s defense has been dreadful at keeping opponents from converting scoring opportunities. Again, no surprise there given the other data we have on this defense.

Tracking efficiency 

ESPN FPI

  • LSU offense: 1st
  • LSU defense: 89th
  • LSU special teams: 117th

 

  • Alabama offense: 35th
  • Alabama defense: 6th
  • Alabama special teams: 26th 

ESPN SP+ 

  • LSU offense: 3rd
  • LSU defense: 42nd
  • LSU special teams: 75th 

 

  • Alabama offense: 18th
  • Alabama defense: 6th
  • Alabama special teams: 10th 

Note: All advanced stats mentioned in this story are from CollegeFootballData.com unless otherwise noted. Betting trends are via the Sports Betting Dime database.